Net zero plans are divorced from reality
Most people are probably only vaguely aware of the existence of the Climate Change Committee (CCC), if they think about it at all. They are, however, fully apprised of some of the thinking that underpins the dash to net zero.
The CCC came into existence under the Climate Change Act pioneered by Ed Miliband during his first incarnation as Energy Secretary in Gordon Brown's government. It has powers to advise ministers on the implementation of public policy measured against a set of statutory targets which have been tightened over the years, especially by Theresa May and Boris Johnson.
The CCC issues regular reports on how well it considers the Government is doing to achieve the removal of all carbon-based sources from British energy production. Its latest publication – the Seventh Carbon Budget – is a work so divorced from reality that it is hard to take it seriously. Yet it will be the basis for energy policy in the coming years unless the Government stops it, as it must if it is to have any hope of generating economic growth.
The proposed expansion of Heathrow and Gatwick airports will make it harder to achieve carbon change dates. Unless the statutory elements of these targets are removed, the courts will intervene whenever it looks like they will be missed.
The CCC makes assumptions about purchases of electric vehicles and heat pumps to replace gas boilers that are completely fanciful. By 2040, half of homes will need a heat pump and 60pc of HGVs are going to have to be electric even though at the moment hardly any exist. It projects that meat consumption is going to fall by 25 per cent within 15 years, with the numbers of cattle and sheep plunging as land is given over to trees to soak up carbon. Even if this were desirable, how is it to be achieved?
We keep being told by Mr Miliband that moving to renewable energy will mean lower bills and yet they are going up again in the spring. The UK has some of the highest electricity costs in the industrialised world, hampering businesses and deterring investors from overseas.
The moment is rapidly approaching when Sir Keir Starmer will have to choose between the ambitions of his Chancellor and those of his Energy Secretary. We have seen already with overseas aid that he is willing to drop statutory requirements if the circumstances warrant it. If he has any sense he will drop Mr Miliband and remove the CCC's statutory powers.
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