Israel Announced a New Invasion of Gaza. Is It Bluffing?
For weeks, the Israeli military has promised a major new ground offensive in Gaza. And for days, the Israeli military has escalated its bombardment of the territory, killing hundreds, and signaled that it will send in more troops to capture more of the enclave. Yet despite all this, the military has yet to begin a significant advance.
The reason, analysts and officials say, is that Israel is waiting to see how Hamas responds to a new and intense round of negotiations over a cease-fire, amid pressure from the Trump administration for the two sides to reach a truce. Israel has been pressing Hamas to release several hostages, in exchange for a truce, while Hamas has been holding out for a permanent deal. But Israel hopes that the fear of losing more territory may prompt Hamas to settle for less.
'Everything has to be read in the context of negotiations for a new cease-fire and hostage deal,' said Shira Efron, director of research at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group.
'Israel has started a new ground operation, but it's all still reversible,' Dr. Efron said. 'For now, this is a negotiating tool — it puts more pressure on Hamas to compromise in the talks.'
The contrast between Israel's stated goals and its actions also reflects a tension within the country's government.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, faces pressure from his allies in cabinet, several of whom want to resettle Gaza with Israeli civilians. But he must balance that pressure against concerns within the military about Israel's ability to sustain a long-term occupation of the territory.
Daniel B. Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said: 'While far-right ministers in Israel seek permanent control of Gaza, the military leadership has doubts about the sustainability of permanent occupation, given the concerns over the willingness of military reservists to staff it over a long-term period, and worries about the fate of the hostages.'
'Netanyahu, as always, prefers to buy time and not to decide,' said Mr. Shapiro, who is now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research group.
Mr. Netanyahu's decision on Sunday night to restart some aid deliveries to Gaza, amid concern from President Trump about starvation in Gaza, also reflected his efforts to satisfy competing interests.
Since March, Israel has prevented food and fuel from reaching Gaza, even as aid groups, and some Israeli soldiers, warned that the territory was on the brink of starvation. The Israeli government said there were enough stocks within Gaza to avoid this. If aid resumed, Israel said it would be distributed by a new private company that would circumvent both the United Nations, which ran aid distribution, and Hamas, which Israel has accused of stealing and profiting from the assistance.
But the private company — the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation — is not fully operational, and so Israel must still rely on help from the United Nations. On Monday, the United Nations said Israel had requested that it revive its aid program.
The decision drew immediate criticism from parts of Mr. Netanyahu's right-wing base. He attempted to assuage that criticism by explaining that it would sustain international support for Israel, buying more time for its military campaign against Hamas.
'We must not reach a point of starvation — both as a matter of fact but also as a diplomatic issue,' he said in a video posted online. Without the resumption of aid, Israel 'will simply not be supported, and we will not be able to achieve victory,' Mr. Netanyahu added.
It was an exchange that highlighted Mr. Netanyahu's juggling act, said Dr. Efron.
'Netanyahu is trying to do a little bit of everything,' she said. 'By announcing a bigger ground operation, he is showing his base he is doing something. By announcing the resumption of aid, he is responding to pressure from the Trump administration, while buying more time for hostage negotiations.'
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