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New York Times
19-05-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
Israel Announced a New Invasion of Gaza. Is It Bluffing?
For weeks, the Israeli military has promised a major new ground offensive in Gaza. And for days, the Israeli military has escalated its bombardment of the territory, killing hundreds, and signaled that it will send in more troops to capture more of the enclave. Yet despite all this, the military has yet to begin a significant advance. The reason, analysts and officials say, is that Israel is waiting to see how Hamas responds to a new and intense round of negotiations over a cease-fire, amid pressure from the Trump administration for the two sides to reach a truce. Israel has been pressing Hamas to release several hostages, in exchange for a truce, while Hamas has been holding out for a permanent deal. But Israel hopes that the fear of losing more territory may prompt Hamas to settle for less. 'Everything has to be read in the context of negotiations for a new cease-fire and hostage deal,' said Shira Efron, director of research at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group. 'Israel has started a new ground operation, but it's all still reversible,' Dr. Efron said. 'For now, this is a negotiating tool — it puts more pressure on Hamas to compromise in the talks.' The contrast between Israel's stated goals and its actions also reflects a tension within the country's government. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, faces pressure from his allies in cabinet, several of whom want to resettle Gaza with Israeli civilians. But he must balance that pressure against concerns within the military about Israel's ability to sustain a long-term occupation of the territory. Daniel B. Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said: 'While far-right ministers in Israel seek permanent control of Gaza, the military leadership has doubts about the sustainability of permanent occupation, given the concerns over the willingness of military reservists to staff it over a long-term period, and worries about the fate of the hostages.' 'Netanyahu, as always, prefers to buy time and not to decide,' said Mr. Shapiro, who is now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research group. Mr. Netanyahu's decision on Sunday night to restart some aid deliveries to Gaza, amid concern from President Trump about starvation in Gaza, also reflected his efforts to satisfy competing interests. Since March, Israel has prevented food and fuel from reaching Gaza, even as aid groups, and some Israeli soldiers, warned that the territory was on the brink of starvation. The Israeli government said there were enough stocks within Gaza to avoid this. If aid resumed, Israel said it would be distributed by a new private company that would circumvent both the United Nations, which ran aid distribution, and Hamas, which Israel has accused of stealing and profiting from the assistance. But the private company — the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation — is not fully operational, and so Israel must still rely on help from the United Nations. On Monday, the United Nations said Israel had requested that it revive its aid program. The decision drew immediate criticism from parts of Mr. Netanyahu's right-wing base. He attempted to assuage that criticism by explaining that it would sustain international support for Israel, buying more time for its military campaign against Hamas. 'We must not reach a point of starvation — both as a matter of fact but also as a diplomatic issue,' he said in a video posted online. Without the resumption of aid, Israel 'will simply not be supported, and we will not be able to achieve victory,' Mr. Netanyahu added. It was an exchange that highlighted Mr. Netanyahu's juggling act, said Dr. Efron. 'Netanyahu is trying to do a little bit of everything,' she said. 'By announcing a bigger ground operation, he is showing his base he is doing something. By announcing the resumption of aid, he is responding to pressure from the Trump administration, while buying more time for hostage negotiations.'
Boston Globe
26-03-2025
- Business
- Boston Globe
Israel's new spending plan is a win for Netanyahu
Advertisement Now, Netanyahu has much greater leeway to set his government's priorities, both at home and in the Gaza Strip, because it will be harder for any single disgruntled party in his coalition to threaten its downfall. 'That could mean doubling down on extreme right-wing populism and the war in Gaza, or it could mean figuring out an exit strategy and attempting a dash to a Saudi normalization deal,' said Michael Koplow, an analyst at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group. 'But whichever path it is will reflect Netanyahu's own calculations rather than what he is being pushed into by his coalition partners.' Netanyahu's partners were likely disinclined to break up the coalition in any case, at least for now, political analysts said. Some of his right-wing allies had seen their parties sink in the polls, while others — like the ultra-Orthodox — could struggle to find an alternative path to power despite disagreements with Netanyahu, they said. On Wednesday, Netanyahu's coalition was already preparing its next move: Its lawmakers were set to pass a new law that would give the government greater say in the selection of Supreme Court justices. The contentious proposal has attracted fierce opposition because it is seen as part of a wider push by Netanyahu's government to exert more control over the judiciary and other state watchdogs. The budget vote drew sharp protests from demonstrators, who blocked roads to the parliament, holding signs to demand that Netanyahu move more quickly in negotiations to free several dozen hostages who have been held in Gaza for nearly 18 months. Talks to resume a cease-fire with Hamas appear stalled, and a recent government decision to return to war is raising fears among Israelis for the hostages who have not been released. Advertisement Yair Lapid, the leader of Israel's parliamentary opposition, claimed the budget also included cuts to essential services like health care, welfare, and education while diverting funds to Netanyahu's right-wing coalition partners. 'The budget harms every Israeli citizen, especially working people,' Lapid said. 'Just to keep the coalition going for a few more months, it sells out the citizens of Israel.' The budget capped program spending at $168.8 billion (the rest goes to capital and debt expenses), allocating more money — $29.9 billion — to Israel's Defense Ministry than any other government agency. Nearly 18 percent of the newly approved budget for 2025 will fund its military and defense operations. A summary of the budget said that allocation reflected the continuing need for significant military spending since October 2023, when the Hamas-led assault that killed about 1,200 Israelis touched off the ongoing war in Gaza. Spending increased last year, the budget said, as Israel opened new fronts in Lebanon and Syria and stepped up airstrikes against Iran and Yemen. 'This is a war budget, and with God's help it will also be the victory budget,' Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, an ally of Netanyahu, said in a statement after the budget was approved Tuesday. The United States, which is part of deadlocked peace negotiations to free the Israeli hostages and end the war in Gaza, has eased some of Israel's wartime expenses by supplying billions of dollars in weapons. Advertisement Already this year, the Trump administration has bypassed Congress to allow the sales of more than $12 billion in arms to Israel over the coming decade — including $2 billion in bombs such as the 2,000-pound munition that human rights officials and advocates said had indiscriminately killed civilians in Gaza. This article originally appeared in
New York Times
03-03-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
With Cease-Fire Shaky, Israel and Hamas Weigh Diplomatic and Military Options
When the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas was announced in January, Israelis and Palestinians burst into simultaneous celebrations, optimistic after 15 months of war. Now, with the first phase of the deal over on Sunday and Israel introducing an entirely new proposal that Hamas has already rejected, concern is rising that the fighting that reduced Gaza to rubble, killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and threatened the lives of hostages could resume. As the cease-fire teeters, both Hamas and Israel are pursuing two paths, one diplomatic and another military. On the diplomatic front, Hamas is insisting on the implementation of the second phase of the original agreement, which calls for an end to the war, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of more hostages and prisoners. Israel, though, has made a new proposal for a seven-week extension of the current cease-fire, during which Hamas would be required to release half the remaining living hostages as well as the remains of half the deceased ones. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Sunday attributed the proposal to the work of President Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. For weeks, Israel has been sending signals that it wasn't interested in moving forward with the second phase of the agreement. While the two sides agreed to the second phase in principle, they never worked out the details and have staked out irreconcilable visions. Mr. Netanyahu has said repeatedly that Hamas's government and military wing must be dismantled, a position shared by his right-wing coalition partners in the government. Hamas has suggested it was willing to give up civilian governance of Gaza but has firmly rejected dissolving its military wing, a critical source of its power in the enclave. The new proposal, as described on Sunday by Mr. Netanyahu, appears to be an attempt to replace the cease-fire deal with terms that would enable Israel to bring home dozens of hostages and remains of hostages without committing to the end of the war. But the suggestion, analysts said, may be an effort to shake up the cease-fire talks in a way that breaks the deadlock between Israel and Hamas, at least temporarily. 'It's not really feasible, but it's an opening offer,' said Shira Efron, an analyst at the Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group. 'It could force a discussion that bridges the two sides' positions to extend the cease-fire for a couple weeks or more.' Still, she said, it does not resolve the underlying differences between Hamas and Israel about the end of the war. At a government meeting on Sunday, Mr. Netanyahu said the proposal included a temporary cease-fire during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan and the Jewish holiday of Passover. Half of the remaining hostages in Gaza, he said, would be returned to Israel at the beginning of the temporary cease-fire and the other half would be repatriated at the end, if an agreement on a permanent cease-fire is concluded. In the first phase of the three-stage deal agreed to in January, Hamas released 25 Israeli hostages and handed over the bodies of eight others in exchange for more than 1,500 Palestinians jailed by Israel. But without further planned exchanges of hostages and prisoners, Israel will have fewer incentives to keep the truce going. On Sunday, Hamas dismissed the new proposal as 'a blatant attempt to renege on the agreement and evade negotiations for its second phase.' Hamas considers the idea of immediately giving up half of the hostages a nonstarter, but it could consider exchanging a small number of hostages or bodies for Palestinian prisoners, even without a commitment to the end of the war, analysts said. The hostages represent Hamas's most powerful leverage, and every time it trades an Israeli captive for Palestinian prisoners, its negotiating hand is weakened. Two Israeli officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, acknowledged that Hamas would probably be willing to give up only a small number of hostages, or their remains, without guarantees for the end of the war. That dynamic, the officials said, may eventually make Israel choose between restarting a war to unseat Hamas or saving hostages still believed to be alive. About 25 captives and the remains of more than 30 others are still in Gaza, according to the Israeli government. 'Israel stands on the horns of a dilemma,' said Yaakov Amidror, a retired major general who served as Mr. Netanyahu's national security adviser. On Sunday, Hazem Qassim, a spokesman for Hamas, said the militant group was insisting on negotiating the second phase because it wanted to prevent the resumption of the war and ensure Israel withdraws from Gaza. 'This is a fundamental position for the Hamas movement,' he told the Qatari-funded broadcaster Al Jazeera. Both Israel and Hamas have sent negotiators to speak with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. But even as the diplomatic discussions continue, the two sides are preparing for the possibility of a return to war. Hamas has been collecting unexploded bombs throughout Gaza and repurposing the explosives and their metal cases as improvised explosive devices, according to one member of the Qassam Brigades, Hamas's military wing, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details. The militant group has also been recruiting new members and replacing commanders killed in the fighting, the person said. Israel has prepared extensively for a new and intense campaign in Gaza, according to Israeli officials. They said any new operations would include targeting Hamas officials who siphon off aid supplies meant for civilians, as well as destroying buildings and infrastructure used by the Hamas-run civilian government. Such a plan has not yet been approved by the Israeli cabinet, the officials said, but they believe that only Mr. Trump could dissuade Mr. Netanyahu from renewed war. While Israel and Hamas struggle over Gaza's future, Palestinian civilians in the enclave, and the families of hostages, are facing an anxious period of limbo. 'They're being left in a state of perpetual worry,' said Akram Atallah, a London-based Palestinian columnist originally from Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip. 'If the war returns, they stand to lose the most.'
