Trump's Military Crackdown Is Starting To Dent His Poll Numbers
As Donald Trump launched his militarized crackdown in Los Angeles, the president and many of his advisers were convinced that deploying troops to the streets of a major American city would be good politics for them. They maintain, three people familiar with the matter say, that immigration was one of Trump's strongest issues, that it helped get him back in the White House, and that his mass deportation program has polled well since the 2024 campaign.
No matter the pushback to Trump sending in the troops (likely illegally) from Democrats, the media, or protesters, the administration's brain trust saw this as a winner for them — and something they wish to replicate. 'If it works out well in L.A., expect it everywhere,' a Trump administration official said of the president's desire for militarized Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids across the nation. (This official and the other three sources spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal deliberations.)
But just days into Trump's deployment of National Guard troops and Marines to quell anti-ICE protests in L.A., new public polling suggests that Trump's recent deportation operations, and his decision to use the military against his domestic enemies, are not boosting his approval ratings.
In fact, Trump's latest power grab is tanking his latest numbers.
Trump's general platform of federal immigration crackdowns polled well in the build-up to his election and second term; 2024 polling showed Trump's calls for grand-scale deportations of undocumented immigrants enjoyed majority support. (However, that majority support diminished when voters were pressed on specific policies and methods.) In April of last year — to the alarm of Democratic operatives and Biden officials — a Harris Poll survey showed 42 percent of Democrats warming up to the idea.
According to a polling analysis by data journalist G. Elliott Morris, Trump entered office with a strong positive approval rating on immigration. But those ratings peaked in February at a high of +11.3 percent. Now, for the second time since April, Morris' polling average shows Trump's immigration approval rating in the negatives.
It appears the militarized incursion into Los Angeles is not playing well with the public at large. A recent YouGov survey shows 47 percent of American adults disapprove of Trump ordering the Marines to L.A., compared to 34 percent who support it. In the same poll, 45 percent disapprove of the president's use of National Guard troops, with 38 percent of respondents backing it.
This aligns with a Wednesday Quinnipiac poll that found 54 percent of respondents disapprove of Trump's handling of immigration, and that 56 percent disapprove of his handling of deportations. (This is a markedly negative turn from an April Quinnipiac poll that found only 50 percent of respondents disapproved of his handling of immigration issues.) Similarly, a Thursday AP/NORC poll found that 53 percent disapproved of Trump's handling of immigration, compared to 46 percent who approve. A text survey conducted by The Washington Post and George Mason University's Schar School found that the public rated Trump's immigration and deportation policies 'negatively by a 15 percentage-point margin, 52 percent to 37 percent.'
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday shows a stark disconnect between the public's general approval for strong action to restore order, and disapproval of what Trump is doing in Southern California. It found that 48 percent of respondents theoretically agree with the statement that the president should 'deploy the military to bring order to the streets.' But only 38 percent of respondents actually approved of how the president is responding to protests in Los Angeles.
Those numbers are likely to continue trending downward as the Trump administration continues to behave badly in L.A. On Thursday — during a press conference in which Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem declared her department would be staying in Los Angeles to 'liberate this city from the socialist and burdensome leadership' of Democrats — Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) was tackled to the ground and handcuffed by FBI agents when he attempted to ask a question of Noem.
Video of Padilla's detention quickly went viral on social media. After being released without charges, the senator told reporters that 'if this is how DHS responds to a senator with a question you can only imagine what they're doing to farm workers, to cooks, to day laborers out in the Los Angeles community and throughout California.'
Without a doubt the videos and stories of teenagers, pregnant women, and everyday working people being chased and detained by ICE is reaffirming what polling and surveys have long showed to be true: Americans generally believe that undocumented migrants with criminal records should be deported, but they are generally put off by indiscriminate immigration raids and deportations that disregard the circumstances of the individual.
There's a silver lining, perhaps, for Trump and his party in some of this data. Democrats in Congress are also wildly unpopular, driven by dissatisfaction from their own liberal voters.
'The public supports keeping America safe and secure, and they don't like the concept of people here illegally — the issue is how it's administered,' says Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster and a conservative Trump critic. 'They have an agenda the American people support; their problem is the way they execute it and articulate it.' Voters do want immigration laws enforced, he says, but they 'don't want senators beaten up at press conferences. This has been the challenge of the Trump administration from the beginning,' Luntz adds, 'because they think they are on the right track, but the way it's being administered right now, they're not.'
Even the president himself — who wrote on Thursday that 'all' undocumented people 'have to go home' — seems to be oscillating on the issue, at least from a public-relations standpoint. Earlier in the day Trump posted on Truth Social that 'farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them. This is not good,' Trump wrote. 'We must protect our Farmers, but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA. Changes are coming!'
For the time being, however, the Trump administration is barreling ahead on its vision of his very American police state. 'In November, the American people resoundingly rejected the Democrat vision for immigration — open borders and millions of unvetted illegal aliens — and endorsed President Trump's vision for immigration — deportations and enforced immigration law,' White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said in a statement to Rolling Stone. 'President Trump is keeping his promise to the American people and violent left-wing rioters won't stop that.'
Asked about the recent slate of negative polls for Trump on immigration, John McLaughlin, a top Trump pollster, simply replies: 'You mean the fake polls?'
He points to rosy results for Trump in his own surveys and conservative-leaning polls: 'We did a national poll for Club for Growth yesterday among 1,000 likely voters and Trump's approval was 53-44 Rasmussen Reports poll today is 53-45,' McLaughlin says.
More from Rolling Stone
Kim Gordon Has Words for Donald Trump on Re-Recorded 'Bye Bye 25!'
Trump Calls on Iran to Agree to Nuclear Deal 'Before There Is Nothing Left'
Is Trump's Troop Deployment to Los Angeles Illegal?
Best of Rolling Stone
The Useful Idiots New Guide to the Most Stoned Moments of the 2020 Presidential Campaign
Anatomy of a Fake News Scandal
The Radical Crusade of Mike Pence
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Hill
16 minutes ago
- The Hill
Israeli Ambassador: ‘Objective is not to contain the war' but ‘win the war' against Iran
Israeli ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, said the goal in the war against Iran is not to contain it but to win it, as the two countries continue to exchange strikes for a third day. During an appearance on ABC's 'This Week,' host Martha Raddatz asked Leiter how Israel would avoid escalating and attempt to contain the war. 'Martha, the objective is not to contain the war,' Leiter responded. 'The objective is to win the war.' 'Eighty years ago, we had a little man with a mustache running around Europe that nobody believed him when he said he was going to destroy the Jewish people,' he continued. 'We lost 6 million. Now we've got a crazed new Hitler running around the Middle East saying he's going to destroy us. 'We have to take him at face value… He's got a concrete plan to destroy us.' Her comments come after Israel and Iran continued to exchange airstrikes on Sunday. Another round of U.S.-Iranian nuclear talks was scheduled in Muscat, Oman, but was cancelled amid the fighting. When Raddatz mentioned that Trump did not want Israel to strike Iran because it would 'blow it,' Leiter said Trump was 'congratulatory about our strike,' noting that he had been given a 'heads-up' by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. When pushed further on whether Israel would accept a deal between Iran and Israel, Leiter said not unless Iran is willing to halt the nuclear program entirely. 'He wants the nuclear program in Iran to be halted in its entirety,' Leiter said. 'He said it very clearly: dismantle the centrifuges, dismantle the infrastructure, and stop in total the enrichment of uranium. So, if that can be achieved through negotiation, so be it. We'll be very happy. But it hasn't been.'
17 minutes ago
Trump says 'it's possible' US gets involved in Israel-Iran conflict
President Donald Trump said Sunday that the US is not involved in Israel 's military strikes but "it's possible we could get involved." In an interview with ABC News' Rachel Scott, Trump said he's open to Russian President Vladimir Putin serving as a mediator in the conflict -- something he said the Russian president pitched in their phone call on Saturday. Here are highlights from the interview: On Israel's latest attack on Iran:"I think they were very devastating. It was very devastating. They were hit also, but it was a very devastating into Iran, primarily" the president said. On a deadline for Iran to come to the negotiating table:"No, there's no deadline. But they are talking. They'd like to make a deal. They're talking. They continue to talk," he said. "Something like this had to happen because I think even from both sides, but something like this had to happen. They want to talk, and they will be talking." Asked again about the talks being called off, the president said he's confident it may help the deal -- "May have forced a deal to go quicker, actually." Will the U.S. get more involved in the conflict?:"We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved," the president said. Putin as a mediator in the conflict:"Yeah, I would be open to it. He is ready. He called me about it. We had a long talk about it. We talked about this more than his situation. This is something I believe is going to get resolved."
CNN
17 minutes ago
- CNN
Trump wary of increasing US involvement as Israel-Iran conflict escalates
Amid ongoing waves of tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran, President Donald Trump is publicly and privately making clear his desire to keep the United States out of the fray for now, wary of becoming bogged in another Middle East war and highly attuned to the changing politics of his party. Sources familiar with the matter say Israel has spoken with the US about possibly increasing its level of involvement, though one Israeli official cautioned those conversation have not yet included 'practical' discussions of the finer details. And while Trump hopes to avoid a prolonged conflict that could further destabilize the Middle East, some in the administration recognize that American military assistance may help Israel conclude its objectives more quickly, the sources said. 'We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved,' Trump told ABC News on Sunday morning. The competing interests have created a complicated dynamic for a president eager to make good on his pledge to bring peace to the world's troubled regions. Since Israel launched its first attack early Friday morning, the US has offered defensive support to Israel intercepting an onslaught of Iranian reprisal strikes. But Trump has stopped well short of joining Israel's military in its attempts to dismantle Iran's nuclear facilities, resisting pressure from fellow Republicans to join the fight. He said in a social media post Saturday that he felt the conflict 'should end' as he continues to hold out hope for a negotiated agreement that would curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions, even after planned talks this weekend in Oman between the US and Iranian negotiating teams were called off. At stake is Trump's promise to act as a global peacemaker — or, as he told his inaugural crowd in January, to 'bring a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent and totally unpredictable.' That vow has already been tested by his inability to bring about an end to the Ukraine conflict and halting efforts to stop the fighting in Gaza. Now, as a new flashpoint is threatening to spiral out of control on Trump's watch, the commander-in-chief is attempting to limit US involvement. 'The U.S. had nothing to do with the attack on Iran, tonight,' Trump wrote on Truth Social late Saturday amid a fresh round of attacks in the region. 'If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before. However, we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!!!' The post sent the message that Trump's line for getting more directly involved in Israel's assaults would be an attack on American facilities or personnel in the region. Short of that, the US role in the conflict so far has largely been defensive. The Israeli operation against Iran is expected to take 'weeks, not days' and is moving forward with implicit US approval, according to White House and Israeli officials. The Trump administration has not critiqued the weeks-long timeframe in private discussions, an Israeli official told CNN. A White House official said the administration was aware and implicitly supportive of Israel's plans. When asked about how long the conflict could continue, the official said it depended on Iran's response. 'The Trump administration firmly believes this can be solved by continuing negotiations with the US,' the official said, adding that the US was not going to direct Israel to do anything but defend itself. American military planners have long had prepared options for joint US-Israeli actions against Iranian facilities should a US president ultimately decide to try taking out Iran's nuclear facilities, some of which are buried deep underground. There is little to indicate Trump has come close to approving such options, however, and according to an Israeli official, the possibility of offensive US support for Israel's strikes inside Iran had not been discussed on a 'practical basis.' 'We are not there, on a practical basis,' the Israeli official said. 'If at some point, the United States decides to take an offensive role, I don't think we'll be in a position to try and talk them out of it – but that's not our ask,' the official said, adding that such a move would be a sovereign decision of the US. The official explained that the endgame is to make sure that Iran is 'no longer an existential threat' to Israel, with both its nuclear and ballistic missiles program. 'If it's done in conjunction with allies, fine, but if it's not done in conjunction with allies, we have to do it ourselves,' the official said. Inside the White House, there continues to be heavy skepticism about getting involved in the conflict further, according to multiple officials familiar with the matter. Trump remains concerned about getting dragged into a war he didn't start and wanted to avoid, and is acutely aware of the complicated politics at play, those officials said. Though he publicly warned Israel against launching an attack on Iran ahead of Friday's strikes, he said afterward he was supportive of the effort and well aware that it was being planned. Prev Next Trump has long promised not to engage in 'nation building' adventurism overseas, decrying his predecessors for sending American troops to die in wars that generated little benefit back home. 'For at least two decades, political leaders from both parties have dragged our military into missions it was never meant to be' a part of, said Trump told graduating cadets at West Point last month. 'They sent our warriors on nation-building crusades to nations that wanted nothing to do with us, led by leaders that didn't have a clue in distant lands,' he said, vowing to never repeat the mistake. Now, however, he is under pressure from some of his Republican allies to take a more interventionist role. 'If diplomacy fails, going all in for Israel shows that America is back as a reliable ally and a strong force against oppression. It would strengthen our hand in all corners of the world, as well as all other conflicts we face,' Sen. Lindsey Graham wrote on X last week.
