Allan rises from historic low, eyes unprecedented fourth Labor term

The Age

5 hours ago

Primary support for the Coalition has fallen from its peak of 42 per cent recorded in December and January – when Brad Battin replaced John Pesutto as opposition leader – to 33 per cent.
This is 1.4 percentage points below the Coalition vote recorded at the 2022 state election, when Labor under then-premier Daniel Andrews won 56 of 88 lower house seats to secure a thumping majority, and the Liberal Party was reduced to a parliamentary rump of just 18 lower house seats.
Battin has maintained his lead over Allan as preferred premier and remains more popular. Allan's approval rating improved from earlier this year but still languishes at minus 21 percentage points.
Resolve founder Jim Reed said these assessments appeared secondary in the minds of voters.
'The comments our survey respondents submit certainly aren't that complimentary about the government or premier, but they are either less positive about the opposition or ignore them altogether,' Reed said.
Nearly three-quarters of respondents said they were unlikely to change their vote between now and next November. If Labor wins the next state election and serves another full term, the Coalition will have spent 26 of 30 years in opposition this century.
Since the start of this year, when Labor MPs and party strategists were shocked by the extent to which voters were abandoning the state government, Allan has worked to establish a political brand beyond the long shadow cast by her predecessor.
Against resistance from her left-faction colleagues, she accepted the state's forgiving bail regime was contributing to recidivist youth crime and legislated what she claims are Australia's toughest bail laws.
She has recast the Suburban Rail Loop, a project she previously championed as the minister responsible for transport infrastructure, as Australia's largest housing project, and expanded its model of facilitating medium- and high-density developments in dozens of suburban 'activity centres'.
The opposition this week conceded that, as long as construction continued as planned between now and the state election, the first stage of the SRL would be built irrespective of who formed the next government.
Allan announced her intention to legislate the right to work from home without raising it with her full cabinet, and despite doubts over the constitutional validity of state-based labour laws, she has spent the past two weeks campaigning on the benefits of flexible work arrangements.
In the meantime, Battin's attempt to present a cogent case for change has been undermined by the same Liberal Party ructions that devoured Pesutto's leadership, and an internal campaign against Battin's choice of deputy, former tennis ace Sam Groth.
Five members of the state division's administrative committee are suing fellow committee members over a decision they took to extend Pesutto a $1.55 million loan from a party entity so he could pay his legal bills and avoid bankruptcy from a protracted stoush with one of his own MPs, Moira Deeming.
Victorian Liberal president Philip Davis wrote to rank-and-file members this week warning that the party could not hope to succeed at the ballot box unless it brought 'an end to the persistent internal disputation and arguments which are so often reported in the media'.
Davis' hold on the presidency will be challenged by the man he replaced in the role, Greg Mirabella, at next month's state council.
While the state division's dysfunctions are uniquely Victorian, Reed said the party's current fortunes were consistent with the national decline in Liberal standings.
'Labor's vote gain is quite dramatic, and mirrors similar movements in other states since the federal election,' he said. 'We cannot help but read into this that the Liberals' downfall nationally has reinforced doubts about their abilities more generally, especially where in opposition.'
Loading
The Resolve results confirm the shift in the Victorian state political landscape since the federal election, when Labor defied its own polling and expectations to hold all its Victorian seats, pick up an additional three and all but wipe the Liberal Party off Melbourne's electoral map.
In the lead-up to the May 3 federal election, Labor strategists and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese were so concerned about Allan's unpopularity with voters that she was sidelined from the hustings. The federal and state leaders appeared just once together throughout the five-week campaign.
Since election night, when Allan triumphantly claimed her government's policies including its support for the SRL had contributed to federal Labor's win, the Victorian premier's internal critics have largely fallen silent.