Terrorism Expands in Africa, Threatens Global Security

Asharq Al-Awsat

6 days ago

Senegalese authorities on Saturday positioned new gendarmerie units near the country's eastern border, to address growing insurgent threats from neighboring Mali.
The move came amid UN reports warning that in recent months, there has been a marked increase in attacks by armed groups and terrorists on military bases and raids targeting civilian centers across the Central Sahel region—particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—raising concerns about the stability of these countries.
In early July, several Malian army positions in western Mali, some near the Senegalese border, were targeted in coordinated attacks, including Diboli, a town less than 500 meters from Senegal's Kidira.
Senegalese feared further violence could spill into Senegal, particularly after the attacks were claimed by the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), an extremist group aligned with al-Qaeda.
UN Warnings
Experts warned last week that the situation in the Sahel remained deeply concerning. They said the overall trend was an expansion of the area of operations of JNIM and a resurgence of activity by ISIS in the Greater Sahara, particularly along the Niger and Nigeria border, where the group was seeking to entrench itself.
In a report presented to the Security Council, the experts said that partly because of ISIS losses in the Middle East, the organization's pivot towards parts of Africa continued.
But, they added, there were concerns that some extremist fighters could move to Afghanistan and further to stage operations against regional States, firstly in Central Asia.
According to the report, ISIS continued to represent the most significant terrorist threat to Europe and the US.
'The nature of this threat has evolved little since the previous assessment and is primarily driven by ISIS – with individuals often, although not exclusively, radicalized via social media and encrypted messaging platforms,' the experts said.
It stated that in contrast to 2024, fallout from the Gaza and Israel conflict had less visible impact.
While such events still featured prominently in terrorist propaganda, references to them were less frequent in interviews with suspects involved in either completed attacks or foiled plots, the experts stated.
In the United States, the report said there were several alleged terrorist attack plots, largely motivated by the Gaza and Israel conflict or individuals inspired and radicalized by ISIS.
On 1 January, an American citizen pledging support to ISIS drove a truck into a crowd in New Orleans, killing 14 people – the deadliest attack associated with al-Qaeda or ISIS in the United States since 2016. Also, authorities disrupted attacks, including an ISIS-inspired plot to conduct a mass shooting at a military base in Michigan.
In addition to the ISIS and al-Qaeda threats, the report said JNIM is now able to maneuver freely and is now capable of directly threatening regional capitals.
In a new report released by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies last month, Africa surpassed 150,000 deaths linked to ISIS militant in the past decade.
It said the 22,307 fatalities linked to terrorist groups over the past year sustain a record level of lethality observed since 2023 and represent a 60% increase from the 2020-2022 period.
The Center showed that for the last 4 years, Burkina Faso has been the epicenter of violent events and fatalities linked to militant groups in the Sahelian theater.
In the past year, Burkina Faso accounted for 55% of these fatalities.
Also, militant groups linked to JNIM network account for 83% of all fatalities in the Sahel, it said.
Led by the Macina Liberation Front and Ansar Dine, these JNIM groups primarily operate in north, central, and southern Mali and southern Burkina Faso.
Comprising an estimated 6,000-7,000 fighters, these groups are also pushing into the border areas of the coastal West African countries.
The report also said that estimates are that al Shabab capabilities in Somalia have expanded in the past year due to an increasingly cooperative relationship with Yemen's Houthis.
Due to the growing instability, the number of forcibly displaced people in the region is now over 3.5 million—a figure that is likely much higher given lack of independent reporting and the failure of military authorities in Burkina Faso to update these figures since 2023.
Civilians in Mali and Burkina Faso must also contend with predatory violence from security forces and Russian Wagner and Africa Corps paramilitaries.
For the last 4 years, there have been a reported 1,292 such attacks, causing 6,058 fatalities.
This exceeds the 5,708 civilian fatalities linked to militant groups in the two countries over this timeframe, the Center said.
It also stated that the Lake Chad Basin saw a 7% increase in fatalities (3,982) linked to militant extremist violence over the past year, demonstrating the continued resilience of Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'Awati Wal Jihad (Boko Haram) and the ISIS group in West Africa (ISWA).
Experts concluded that terrorist groups in Africa have become 'more organized and innovative' in weak-run States. They said the targeting of civilians is a key driver to recruitment.