
As Ukraine ceasefire deadline nears, Russia confirms Vladimir Putin's will meet with Donald Trump 'soon'
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may meet next week, according to Moscow's deputy UN Ambassador, Dmitry Polyanskiy. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Polyanskiy said he had heard that the meeting could happen soon, possibly next week, though the exact date and place have not been shared publicly. He mentioned that both leaders have agreed to keep the details private for now.
When asked about a possible meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Polyanskiy said he wasn't aware of any such plans but didn't completely rule it out either. 'I haven't heard anything about a meeting with President Zelensky, but I'm not directly involved in those discussions,' he said.
The last time a U.S. President met with Russian President Vladimir Putin was in June 2021. That meeting was held in Geneva between Putin and then-President Joe Biden. Since then, there hasn't been any official summit between leaders of the two countries. Putin confirms upcoming Trump summit, suggests UAE as possible venue
Putin has confirmed that a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump is being planned. He said both sides are interested in having the talks and suggested that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could be a possible location for the summit.
Putin made this announcement after meeting with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. During their meeting, the two leaders discussed strengthening ties between their countries.
When asked who suggested the meeting first, Putin said it doesn't really matter anymore since both sides want it to happen. As for where the meeting might take place, Putin said the UAE is one of the places being considered and called it a 'suitable location.' Russia invasion of Ukraine
Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, claiming it needed to protect its own security. However, Ukraine and its Western supporters believe the attack was simply an attempt by Russia to take over more land.
Donald Trump, before returning to office, had promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of becoming president again. But now, nearly seven months into his second term, that promise has not been fulfilled.
Recently, Trump increased tariffs on goods from India by 25 percent, reportedly because of India's continued oil trade with Russia. Despite this, Trump praised a meeting between his representative, Steve Witkoff, and Putin earlier this week, saying it was a step forward.
According to the White House, Russia has shown interest in holding direct talks with Trump. A meeting could take place as early as next week, as part of renewed efforts to find a solution to the war that has lasted more than three years.

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Hindustan Times
4 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
'Will be 1929... GREAT DEPRESSION': Trump warns of consequences if tariffs overturned
President Donald Trump on Thursday hailed his sweeping tariffs as a catalyst for record-breaking stock market gains and a surge in government revenue, while warning of catastrophic consequences if courts overturn his policy. US President Donald Trump points as he boards Air Force One at RAF Lossiemouth, north-east Scotland.(AFP File) 'Tariffs are having a huge positive impact on the Stock Market. Almost every day, new records are set,' Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. He claimed 'hundreds of billions of dollars' were flowing into US coffers and warned that if a 'Radical Left Court' struck down the measures, 'it would be 1929 all over again, a GREAT DEPRESSION!' The post came just hours after tariffs of 10% or more took effect on goods from over 60 countries and the European Union. Products from the EU, Japan, and South Korea now face 15% duties, while imports from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are taxed at 20%. Days earlier, Trump also announced a 25% surcharge on Indian goods, citing its purchases of Russian oil, bringing its total tariff rate to 50%, and imposed steep new levies on Swiss exports, pharmaceuticals, and computer chips. In his message, Trump argued that the tariffs were essential to preserving America's 'wealth, strength, and power,' and that opponents should have challenged them at the outset, not after they had begun delivering economic gains. 'Our Country deserves SUCCESS AND GREATNESS, NOT TURMOIL, FAILURE, AND DISGRACE. GOD BLESS AMERICA!' he declared. Trump's defence comes amid growing criticism from economists who warn the duties are already slowing hiring, raising prices, and straining US trade relationships. But the president pointed to the S&P 500's more than 25% rise since April and the recent tax cuts he signed as evidence that the economy is on the verge of 'unprecedented' growth. 'There's no one in history that has gone through the trials, tribulations and uncertainties such as I,' Trump wrote, casting himself as uniquely prepared to guide the country through the tariff fight. 'Amazingly beautiful things can happen.'


Indian Express
5 minutes ago
- Indian Express
UPSC Key: Road Accidents in India, India's oil imports and Rare earth elements
Important topics and their relevance in UPSC CSE exam for August 8, 2025. If you missed the August 7, 2025 UPSC CSE exam key from the Indian Express, read it here FRONT PAGE PM draws the line: Won't compromise on our interests, ready to pay heavy personal price Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India's interests. What's the ongoing story: In first public remarks after US President Donald Trump doubled the tariffs on India to 50 per cent ahead of more negotiations for a trade deal that has run into Indian red lines in sensitive areas such as agriculture and dairy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Thursday that the country 'will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, livestock rearers and fisherfolk'. Key Points to Ponder: • What PM Modi's declaration 'I'm ready to pay the price' within the evolving India–US trade dynamics signifies? • How drawing a 'red line' over farmers reflects India's priorities in negotiating trade pressures? • What are the long term and short term implications of U.S. penalties on Indian exports for India's domestic agricultural policy? • What is the importance of agriculture and dairy in India's broader trade negotiation framework? • How effective is 'red line diplomacy' in terms of defending sensitive sectors? • Compare India's stance on agriculture in this scenario with its broader trade negotiation strategies with other partners. Key Takeaways: • 'Dr M S Swaminathan taught us that agriculture is not just about crops. Agriculture is life itself. The dignity of every individual connected to the field, the well-being of every farming community, and the protection of nature – these form the very strength of our government's agricultural policy,' Modi said. • In the ongoing trade talks with the US, India has made it clear that agriculture and dairy remain non-negotiable. As reported by The Indian Express, New Delhi is unlikely to concede to Washington's push for market access to genetically modified (GM) crops such as corn and soya. • Agriculture continues to be one of the most contentious areas between the two countries, with the US Trade Representative (USTR) repeatedly raising concerns over India's restrictions on GM imports, calling them discriminatory. Do You Know: • On Wednesday, Washington ramped up pressure ahead of a scheduled visit by US trade negotiators to New Delhi on August 25. It doubled duties on several Indian goods – raising overall tariffs to 50 per cent – citing India's continued crude oil trade with Russia. A 25 per cent penalty will be added to the reciprocal tariffs announced on August 1, but with a 21-day buffer before implementation. • In a statement, the White House said the additional '25 per cent ad valorem duty' was being imposed to address a national emergency triggered by Russia's actions in Ukraine. The executive order stated that this step was necessary due to India's 'direct or indirect' imports of Russian oil and that higher tariffs would more effectively address the situation. • The sharp tariff hike puts India at a disadvantage compared to regional competitors such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and even China, who now face lower or more favourable trade terms. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Duty-free access to US cotton, agri items' quota likely on talks table 📍Why is Trump upset with India? It is not about peace in Ukraine 📍Why PM spoke of farmers, livestock rearers & fisherfolk India's strategy: Remain quiet, don't give in, wait it out for now Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India's interests. What's the ongoing story: US President Donald Trump may have doubled the tariffs on India to 50 per cent, but New Delhi is not alarmed or unduly perturbed; rather the government seems to be prepared to wait it out for the next few weeks or more — deal with his increasing frustration by remaining calm. Key Points to Ponder: • What has been India's immediate response to the doubling of U.S. tariffs? • Who will be hit hardest by 50% tariff on India? • What options India have? • The phrase 'wait it out' in the Indian government's response implies what? • The doubling of tariffs reflects which broader U.S. strategy under Trump? • What are the advantages and disadvantages of India's 'remain quiet, wait it out' strategy in response to abrupt changes in U.S. trade policy? • How India's approach reflects its strategic autonomy within its 'multi-alignment' foreign policy framework? Key Takeaways: • Simultaneously, it has taken an unequivocal call that Trump cannot tell India not to trade with Russia or distance itself from BRICS. • 'These are India's sovereign decisions. We will never sacrifice our sovereignty,' said a source aware of the developments. 'We are willing to negotiate on tariffs and trade with the US, but Trump has continuously shifted the goalpost. Buying defence spare parts or oil from Russia, which is India's all-weather and consistent friend, or being a member of a global grouping like BRICS – these are issues which are not related to trade with the US and are non-negotiable,' the source said. • India is one of the first few countries to have kick-started talks with the US on a trade agreement, and an interim deal was expected before August 1. • What has kept New Delhi guessing is why Trump is ratcheting up the pressure given the pivot India-US relations took two decades ago and the arc of the strategic cooperation between the two countries. —'One explanation is that he is quite frustrated that India is holding up… unwilling to bend, when many other countries have,' said a top political functionary aware of the negotiations between India and the US. —From New Delhi's perspective, countries negotiating with Trump fall under two categories. First, countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan which couldn't really put up stiff resistance, and did not stand up to his pressure tactics; they are learnt to have given huge concessions, including possibly political conditions. Then, there are countries like China and Canada; they speak up, openly challenge and even retaliate. Do You Know: Shyam Saran Writes: • The first order of business is to recognise that under Trump, India-US relations are becoming progressively adversarial. Submitting to his exaggerated demands, which are now political as well as economic, would severely undermine India's national interests. We cannot give any country a veto over which countries India should or should not partner with. While we should continue to remain engaged in trade negotiations and aim for a deal which brings mutual and not one-sided benefits, we should firmly reject diktats on how India should run its foreign policy. • In 1968, it refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) despite immense pressure from the then superpowers, the US and the Soviet Union. We refused to adhere to a blatantly discriminatory Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban treaty in 1995 despite being a lone holdout. In climate change negotiations, we held our ground that the Rio Convention provisions must be upheld until we ourselves resiled from our principled position and accepted the Paris Climate agreement in 2015, which we now see observed more in the breach by its then apostolic champions. This experience should alert us to the danger of acquiescing to unfair and discriminatory bargains. • India has always been regarded with respect for its courage to stand up for its convictions. Most developing countries still take their cue from India. We carry credibility with them. This provides India with a significant diplomatic ballast. We should recognise and value this asset, which is undermined if we keep talking about being at the high table and consorting with top global leaders. India should never sacrifice its material interests for the symbolic status of being at the high table. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Tavleen Singh writes: How Trump's tariffs could turn into a real opportunity for India IN PARLIAMENT In first 6 months of 2025, over 29K killed in national highway accidents, more than 50% of last year: Data Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Economic and Social Development-Sustainable Development, Poverty, Inclusion, Demographics, Social Sector Initiatives, etc. Mains Examination: General Studies III: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc. What's the ongoing story: Accident deaths on national highways this year appear to be on track to exceed the previous year's figure, shows data tabled by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways in Lok Sabha on Thursday. Key Points to Ponder: • Road Accidents in India-Know Broad Profile of Road Accidents • Why Road Safety is must in India? • What position does India have in terms of Road safety? • Road accidents are multi-causal phenomenon and are the result of an interplay of various factors-What are those factors? • What are the Initiatives Related to Road Safety? • What actions are being taken by the Supreme Court of India in the matter of Road Safety? • What are the Initiatives Related to Road Safety at national as well at international level? • What is 'Brasilia Declaration on Road Safety'? • What is the Significance of Road Safety in India? Key Takeaways: • According to the data, 29,018 people died on national highways in the first six months of this year — this is more than 50% of the total fatalities of last year. National highways in India account for over 30% of road accident deaths, even though they comprise only 2% of the total road network. • The data shows 67,933 accidents took place on national highways up to June 2025. In 2024, 53,090 people died in 1,25,873 accidents across national highways. In 2023, 53,630 people died in 1,23,955 accidents. • The data is based on information sent by states and Union Territories to the Electronic Detailed Accident Report (eDAR) portal — a central repository for reporting, managing and analysing road accident data. • The total number of road accident deaths in 2023 was more than 1.72 lakh. The Union government has set an ambitious target to halve such deaths by 2030. • Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari said the ministry is undertaking both short-term and long-term remedial measures to reduce such deaths. These include road markings, signage installations, crash barriers, raised pavement markers, geometric improvements, junction redesigns, spot widening of carriageways and construction of underpasses or overpasses, among other measures. • The government has identified road engineering as one of the biggest factors of accident deaths. Do You Know: • There are no clear-cut answers. But there are three broad schools of thought. —Indians simply don't care about their safety: The most commonplace response is to blame the consumers and argue that Indians do not care for safety. For example, in the current example, what would have caused Mistry to not wear a seat belt? • Indians are too poor to afford road safety equipment: Recently The Indian Express reported that 'The Centre's plan to mandate six airbags across all cars from October 1 is likely to be deferred amid discussions within the government on its fallout in the small-car market and a pushback from the industry.' Earlier this year, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways had announced the minimum six-airbag rule for vehicles that can carry up to eight passengers. • In one of the more prominent papers, titled 'Traffic fatalities and economic growth (2003), Elizabeth Kopits (University of Maryland) and Maureen Kropper (World Bank) explain the underlying logic of this hypothesis: When countries are poor, growth in income is closely tied to increase in motorization, which leads to higher exposure to road traffic injuries. • According to Kopits and Kropper, the turning point came at a particular level of per capita income. 'The income level at which per capita traffic fatalities peaks is approximately $8,600 in 1985 international dollars,' they calculated. As such, '…if developing countries follow historic trends, it will take many years for them to achieve the motor vehicle fatality rates of high-income countries. Provided that present policies continue into the future, the traffic fatality rate of India, for example, will not begin to decline until 2042'. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍India's road deaths are not accidents — they are a public health crisis THE IDEAS PAGE Warning bells, unheard Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies III: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment What's the ongoing story: As avalanches and floods devastate the Bhagirathi valley, it is time India confronts the deadly consequences of unsustainable development in the fragile Himalayas. Key Points to Ponder: • How climate underestimation in policymaking contributes to disasters in ecologically fragile regions like Uttarkashi? • What is the role of unregulated infrastructure development in amplifying the impact of climate-induced disasters in Uttarkashi? • Know the effectiveness of India's current disaster response mechanisms, referencing the 2025 Uttarakhand flash flood. • How climate change is influencing the nature and frequency of hydro-meteorological disasters in the Uttarkashi region? • How climate adaptation strategies must integrate geo-ecological realities? • What is the concept of climate justice in the context of Uttarkashi's vulnerable communities facing repeated calamities? Key Takeaways: • Three climate-related catastrophes devastated a short scenic stretch of the upper Bhagirathi (Ganga) river valley in Uttarkashi district on August 5. They devastated Dharali — a pretty Himalayan town along the Bhagirathi about 20 km before Gangotri, a portion of Harshil, six kilometres downstream, known for its apple orchards, and some nearby settlements, according to initial reports. • In the evening, the Central Water Commission released a brief disaster report. It described the first incident, around 1:00 pm, as a suspected cloudburst flood, 'severely damaging' much of Dharali, sweeping away residential houses, shops and possibly affecting many people gathered in the town for a mela. • A second cloudburst occurred around 3:00 pm in a small mountain stream valley, downstream of Harsil. A third flood, at 3:30 pm, submerged the Harshil helipad that could affect later relief efforts. About 100 Army personnel, assisted by The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), State Disaster Response Force (SDRF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) and local police teams began prompt rescue operations. Do You Know: • In 2012, the Union government had notified the Gaumukh to Uttarkashi watershed of the Bhagirathi as an Eco-Sensitive Zone (BESZ). This was to preserve its pristine areas and regulate infrastructural activities in the region. Later central and state governments, however, have been lax in enforcing the regulations, despite the strenuous efforts by some members of an MoEF&CC appointed monitoring committee. • With the governments ignoring the BESZ notification, the Union Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) prepared plans to widen the National Highway in the BESZ to accommodate Gangotri's summer tourist traffic. • In 2020, Juyal, as a member of the Supreme Court directed High Powered Committee (HPC) to investigate the construction of the Char Dham highway, warned his committee colleagues, BRO engineers and senior Uttarakhand and central government officials of the high probability of repeated future avalanches due to global warming and climate changes. • In 2020, in its final report to the Supreme Court, the HPC recommended that the sensitive slopes not be disturbed. To protect the BESZ, particularly to conserve the deodar forest stretch, it recommended that an elevated highway stretch closer to the riverside be considered as an alternative to widening the highway. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Uttarkashi flash floods: Why this operation is likely to test rescuers' grit and patience ECONOMY As Russian oil discount narrows, experts say India can afford import diversification Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India's interests. What's the ongoing story: With US President Donald Trump doubling the tariff on Indian goods to 50 per cent, economists think India can afford to reduce its purchase of Russian oil due to the narrowing of the discount on offer and diversify its sourcing. Key Points to Ponder: • Why are Indian public sector refiners currently pausing Russian oil purchases? • What percentage of India's crude imports currently comes from Russia? • How the narrowing discounts on Russian crude are reshaping India's energy procurement strategy? • How U.S. tariff threats have influenced India's decisions on oil import diversification? • If India's import expenses rise by the estimated $9 to 12 billion if it forgoes Russian oil, what impact may this have on inflation, the rupee, and monetary policy? • Compare India's diversification to alternative suppliers like Middle East and West Africa? Key Takeaways: • From around 2 per cent prior to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the share of Russian oil in India's oil imports has increased sharply to 35-40 per cent, with Indian refiners lapping up discounted Russian oil that was shunned by developed nations. However, the tariff war instigated by Donald Trump – initially with a focus on addressing the US' trade deficit with other nations – has seen the imposition of so-called secondary tariffs on India for its purchase of Russian energy and defence equipment. • On July 30, Trump threatened a 25 per cent on India and an additional unspecified 'penalty' for its Russian trade. On Wednesday, the penalty was revealed to be a further 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods that will come into effect on August 27. • According to Barclays economists led by Aastha Gudwani, the purchase of discounted Russian oil helped lower India's oil import bill by around $7 billion-10 billion in 2024 to $186 billion. • Meanwhile, Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi estimate the implied discount on Russian crude oil for Indian refiners declined to around $2.2 per barrel in 2024-25 from over $12 per barrel in 2022-23. As such, if India chooses to reduce its purchase of Russian oil, India's annual import bill may only rise by around $1.5 billion, they calculated. • Morgan Stanley economists were in agreement, estimating that the discount India got on Russian crude oil in 2024-25 was only $2-3 per barrel. Do You Know: • To be sure, Indian refining companies began cutting their purchase of Russian oil even prior to Trump's threat of a 'penalty'. In July, India's crude imports from Russia averaged 1.6 million barrels per day, as per data from Kpler, a global trade data and analytics firm, down 24 per cent from June. • However, a move by India to procure more oil from countries other than Russia could push up prices globally, which would raise the import bill. While difficult to estimate, Nomura economists think that given India imported 1.8 billion barrels of oil in 2024-25, India's annual import bill could rise by around $1.8 billion for every $1 increase in global crude prices. • According to Falakshahi, India's negotiations with the US could lead to New Delhi agreeing to raise its oil and gas purchases. The energy trade between the two countries is worth around $7.5 billion a year. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍In 25% additional tariff penalty on India, Trump's warning to other importers of Russian oil India, Russia discusses rare earths among other areas of industrial cooperation Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India's interests. What's the ongoing story: India and Russia on Wednesday discussed industrial cooperation across a range of areas, including rare earth and critical mineral extraction, as India faces increasing pressure over its purchase of Russian oil, with the US announcing an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods. Key Points to Ponder: • What is the difference between critical minerals and rare earth elements? • Which country has the most rare earth deposits? • What is the strategic significance of India–Russia cooperation in rare-earth mineral technology? • How India's vast rare-earth reserves offer an avenue for enhancing its strategic autonomy? • What challenges does India face in transforming its rare-earth reserves into a robust supply chain? • What are the potential economic and strategic benefits of making India a downstream processing hub for rare-earth materials? • In the context of global rare-earth geopolitics, how India can leverage partnerships under initiatives like NCMM to reduce dependency on China and build mineral sovereignty? Key Takeaways: • The discussions on rare earth minerals come amid China's restrictions on the export of seven rare earths, which has impacted automobile production in India. China dominates the global rare earths market, supplying 85 to 95 per cent of the world's demand. • 'Both sides explored opportunities in rare earth and critical mineral extraction, underground coal gasification, and the creation of modern industrial infrastructure,' the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said. • The Ministry added that key focus areas included cooperation in aerospace science and technology — such as the establishment of a modernised wind tunnel facility, production of small aircraft piston engines, and joint development in carbon fibre technology, additive manufacturing, and 3D printing. • DPIIT Secretary Amardeep Singh Bhatia and Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, Alexey Gruzdev, also discussed key areas such as aluminium, fertilisers, and railway transport, alongside capacity building and technology transfer in mining equipment, exploration, and industrial and domestic waste management. • 'The meeting concluded with the signing of the Protocol of the 11th Session by both co-chairs, reaffirming the strategic India-Russia partnership and shared commitment to deepen industrial and economic cooperation. The session saw participation from around 80 delegates representing both sides, including senior government officials, domain experts, and industry representatives,' the Ministry said. Do You Know: • On Wednesday, the US said it would impose an 'additional 25 per cent ad valorem duty' on Indian goods, over and above the 25 per cent reciprocal tariffs announced on August 1, to 'deal with the national emergency stemming from Russia's actions in Ukraine,' according to a White House statement. • New Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) noted that in 2024 alone China purchased $62.6 billion worth of Russian oil — more than India's $52.7 billion. Washington has avoided targeting Beijing, GTRI said, because of China's leverage over critical materials such as gallium, germanium, rare earths, and graphite, which are vital for US defence and technology. • 'The US has also overlooked its allies' trade with Russia: the EU imported $39.1 billion worth of Russian goods last year, including $25.2 billion in oil, while the US itself purchased $3.3 billion in strategic materials from Russia. The tariffs are expected to make Indian goods significantly more expensive in the US, with the potential to cut US-bound exports by 40–50 per cent.' Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍When it comes to critical minerals, India cannot rely on China — it needs to fast track its own exploration EXPLAINED What to expect from Trump-Putin meet Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India's interests. What's the ongoing story: Currently, Russia is winning, and Ukraine will be unhappy under all circumstances. Although Russia is yet to fully capture the four oblasts (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) that were constitutionally incorporated into Russia in 2022, most experts agree that if the current tempo of the war is sustained, they will get there by the end of the year. Key Points to Ponder: • Where does the Russia-Ukraine war stand? Which side would be happier if the war ended today? • Know the significance of a Trump–Putin meeting at this juncture in the Ukraine conflict? • How possible outcomes of a U.S.–Russia summit could influence India's strategic calculus? • Know the extent to which such a bilateral meeting could shape regional security architecture in Europe and the broader West. • To what degree might a revival in U.S.–Russian dialogue distract from multilateral mechanisms involving Ukraine and Europe? • Would a meeting between Trump and Putin diminish support for Ukraine within Western alliances? Key Takeaways: • Currently, Russia is winning, and Ukraine will be unhappy under all circumstances. Although Russia is yet to fully capture the four oblasts (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) that were constitutionally incorporated into Russia in 2022, most experts agree that if the current tempo of the war is sustained, they will get there by the end of the year. • After losing Crimea in 2014, Ukraine has lost another 20% of its territory, and may lose more land in the coming months. Ukraine has neither the economic power nor the human resources to turn the tide of the war. • Russia may be challenged if NATO enters the war but that could lead to a quick escalation to the nuclear level. This is why NATO, while supporting Ukraine's war efforts, has been very careful not to cross certain red lines. This is unlikely to change. • Trump will hope to extract some kind of a promise from Putin — at the very least of a ceasefire that will halt the fighting. Trump believes he has the personality and the leverage to get Putin to agree to whatever he wants. • But Russia's President is unlikely to agree to any deal unless he is given guarantees that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO and will not receive any security guarantees from the West. Moreover, Putin will insist that the territories his forces have captured, including Crimea, be recognised as Russian. Do You Know: • The US President does not see Ukraine as a part of NATO, a grouping that he personally doesn't appear to be too invested in. Trump and members of his administration had also indicated that they were not averse to Ukraine ceding territory to Russia to end the war. • Trump does not consider the war in Ukraine to be a legacy that he has to continue. Given that Ukraine is not that strategically important to the US, Trump does not see the war as a path to achieving American dominance in world affairs. In fact, he was trying to push Ukraine into accepting these demands, as his public bust-up with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House made clear. • The Ukrainian President has been calling up various European leaders and trying to get himself invited to the Trump-Putin meeting. He is worried that Putin may be able to persuade Trump to accept some of the positions that Russia has been voicing from the beginning of the war — which the American President himself does not appear to be fundamentally against. • India is caught in Trump's attempt to exert leverage on Russia. His 'extra' tariffs have put India in a difficult position. To use a phrase used by former National Security Adviser J N Dixit, India will need to do a 'complicated Bharatnatyam dance' to extricate itself from this situation. • The US is our largest trading partner. It is also one of the few countries with which India has a trade surplus that offsets, at least partially, the deficit we have with China and Russia. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Trump to meet Putin in coming days, Kremlin says What Trump's 50% tariff means for India Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India's interests. What's the ongoing story: On August 6, US President Donald Trump announced that imports from India to the country will attract an additional 25% tariff, as a penalty for buying Russian energy. Along with the existing 25% rate, it results in 50% tariffs, making India the nation facing the highest tariffs from the US. Key Points to Ponder: • What is Trump's grouse against India? • How will slapping on tariffs reduce the trade deficit? • Where does a trade deal figure in this picture? • Is Trump singling out India? • Does that mean Trump is a champion of free-trade? • Should India retaliate by putting tariffs on imports from the US? • What can India do? Key Takeaways: • In response, India has stated the US President's actions are 'unfair, unjustified and unreasonable'. Experts suggest that these tariffs could result in India's annual economic output (measured by the gross domestic product or GDP) falling by more than half a percentage point. • The move to slap additional tariffs seems to be driven not so much by a desire to punish India for importing energy from Russia (the formal reason), but rather as a negotiating tool to force India towards signing a trade deal that suits the US. The fact is that several other countries, such as China and the European Union, and the US continue to import goods and energy from Russia. • According to Trump, it is because of such barriers to entry that India enjoys a trade surplus against the US (or, put differently, the US suffers from a trade deficit with India). A trade deficit with India implies that the total value of goods imported by the US from India is larger than the total value of goods exported from the US to India. • At the heart of Trump's insistence on tariffs is the desire to eliminate the trade deficit and have balanced trade relations. • A tariff is essentially a tax on domestic consumers when they import goods from outside the country. When the US slaps a tariff of 50% on imports from India, US consumers find Indian imports 50% more costly. As prices go up, the demand for such goods falls, and US consumers will stop importing from India, choosing a cheaper alternative from some other country or simply not buying that product all together. Do You Know: • Tariffs can also be used as a threat, as indeed they are being used right now, to force India to strike a trade deal and achieve the goal of eliminating the trade deficit in two other ways. • One, is by increasing US exports to India by forcing India to open up its domestic markets to goods imported from the US. A rise in imports from the US will also bridge the trade deficit. Two, forcing the Indian government and its associated entities to buy more goods — say defence equipment or crude oil — to close up the trade deficit. • Trump has imposed tariffs even on countries with which the US enjoyed trade surpluses such as the UK and Australia. The fact is that Trump believes that only balanced trade — that is, zero trade deficit — is fair trade. A trade deficit, in his worldview, implies that the other country (India, for instance) is cheating the US. • As a result, even if there was complete free trade between the US and the other countries, if the US suffers a trade deficit, Trump can be expected to slap tariffs. What makes this ideological, albeit misplaced, stance of Trump troublesome is that no two countries naturally achieve balanced trade. More often than not, any country has trade deficits with some countries and trade surpluses with others. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Trump's 50% tariff announcement could have 0.6% impact on India's GDP growth, says Goldman Sachs For any queries and feedback, contact Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X. Priya Kumari Shukla is a Senior Copy Editor in the Indian Express (digital). She contributes to the UPSC Section of Indian Express (digital) and started niche initiatives such as UPSC Key, UPSC Ethics Simplified, and The 360° UPSC Debate. The UPSC Key aims to assist students and aspirants in their preparation for the Civil Services and other competitive examinations. It provides valuable guidance on effective strategies for reading and comprehending newspaper content. The 360° UPSC Debate tackles a topic from all perspectives after sorting through various publications. The chosen framework for the discussion is structured in a manner that encompasses both the arguments in favour and against the topic, ensuring comprehensive coverage of many perspectives. Prior to her involvement with the Indian Express, she had affiliations with a non-governmental organisation (NGO) as well as several coaching and edutech enterprises. In her prior professional experience, she was responsible for creating and refining material in various domains, including article composition and voiceover video production. She has written in-house books on many subjects, including modern India, ancient Indian history, internal security, international relations, and the Indian economy. She has more than eight years of expertise in the field of content writing. Priya holds a Master's degree in Electronic Science from the University of Pune as well as an Executive Programme in Public Policy and Management (EPPPM) from the esteemed Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, widely recognised as one of the most prestigious business schools in India. She is also an alumni of Jamia Milia Islamia University Residential Coaching Academy (RCA). Priya has made diligent efforts to engage in research endeavours, acquiring the necessary skills to effectively examine and synthesise facts and empirical evidence prior to presenting their perspective. Priya demonstrates a strong passion for reading, particularly in the genres of classical Hindi, English, Maithili, and Marathi novels and novellas. Additionally, she possessed the distinction of being a cricket player at the national level. Qualification, Degrees / other achievements: Master's degree in Electronic Science from University of Pune and Executive Programme in Public Policy and Management (EPPPM) from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta ... Read More


Indian Express
5 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Netanyahu's plan to control Gaza draws global criticism, Germany halts military exports
Israel's plan to take control of Gaza City as part of its ongoing military offensive has prompted sharp criticism and calls for restraint from governments and international bodies around the world. 'We don't want to keep it. We want to have a security perimeter. We don't want to govern it,' Netanyahu said. Hamas accused the Israeli leader of trying to derail ceasefire talks, saying he was seeking a military solution 'with the aim of getting rid of the hostages and sacrificing them for personal and political interests'. UN human rights chief Volker Türk said the war 'must end now' and warned that further escalation 'will result in more massive forced displacement, more killing, more unbearable suffering, senseless destruction and atrocity crimes'. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on X that Israel's decision 'must be reconsidered' and that a ceasefire was needed immediately. She also called for the release of hostages held 'in inhumane conditions' and for aid to reach Gaza without restrictions. The Israeli government's decision to further extend its military operation in Gaza must be reconsidered. At the same time, there must be the release of all hostages, who are being held in inhumane conditions. And humanitarian aid must be given immediate and unhindered access to… — Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) August 8, 2025 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that Berlin would stop approving exports of military equipment that could be used in Gaza. He said Israel's decision 'makes it increasingly difficult' to see how its stated goals disarming Hamas and freeing hostages could be achieved. Denmark's foreign ministry urged Israel to reverse the decision, while the Netherlands' Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp called it 'a wrong move' that would 'not help to get the hostages home' (BBC). Saudi Arabia condemned any Israeli attempt to take control of Gaza, saying it 'categorically denounces' what it described as crimes against Palestinians, including 'starvation' and 'brutal practices', as reported by Reuters. Turkey's foreign ministry called on the international community to stop the plan, saying it aimed to 'forcibly displace Palestinians from their own land'. China's foreign ministry reiterated that 'Gaza belongs to the Palestinian people' and called for an immediate ceasefire. Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong urged Israel 'not to go down this path', saying it would 'only worsen the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza' and that permanent forced displacement would violate international law. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer called the escalation 'wrong' and urged Israel to reconsider. He said: 'This action will do nothing to bring an end to this conflict or to help secure the release of the hostages. It will only bring more bloodshed'. The Israeli Government's decision to further escalate its offensive in Gaza is wrong, and we urge it to reconsider immediately. Every day the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens and hostages taken by Hamas are being held in appalling and inhuman conditions. We need a ceasefire… — Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) August 8, 2025 Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said she hoped for an immediate ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages.