Trump ally to spearhead review that could torpedo Australia's defence plans

Daily Mail​

a day ago

Long-time Donald Trump ally and China hawk Elbridge 'Bridge' Colby will spearhead a US government review of the AUKUS submarine deal, as speculation mounts that the arrangement will be scrapped.
The appointment, confirmed by a US defence official on Thursday, heightened expectations that the Trump administration will end or at least alter the deal under which Australia was to acquire nuclear-powered submarines to replace its current ageing fleet.
Defence Minister Richard Marles downplayed the significance of a review, describing it as 'natural' given the policy was introduced by the Biden administration.
But Shadow Defence Minister Angus Taylor has expressed serious reservations in the face of threatened abandonment.
'If AUKUS falls over, it is Australia that pays the price,' he said.
'We would face a dangerous gap in capability at a time when we lack the capacity to go it alone.'
Australia jettisoned a deal to acquire French-made submarines - despite having spent almost $2.5billion - to instead join the deal with the US and UK governments.
A collapse of the AUKUS deal would leave Australia to start from scratch in finding its next generation of submarines, with such deals taking many years between commissioning and completion.
US Under Secretary of Defence Policy, Mr Colby will be at the helm during the period of review, as first reported by British publication the Financial Times.
He has publicly spoken of his doubts about the strategic and cost value of the AUJUS deal.
'AUKUS, in principle, it is a great idea, but I have been very skeptical in practice,' Mr Colby posted on X in August last year.
'I remain skeptical, agnostic, as I put it, but more inclined based on new information I have gleaned.
'It would be crazy to have fewer SSNs Virginia class in the right place and time.'
Asked to address this during a Senate hearing in March this year, prior to being approved as under secretary, he doubled down.
Mr Colby said repeated that it was a 'great idea' but that the hope for an 'Australian capacity' for US military could not be dragged out over a lengthy time period.
However he also referred to Australia as 'perhaps our closest ally in the world', noting that the Australian government has supported the US 'even in our less advisable wars'.
'It is a great idea for (Australia) to have attack submarines,' he told the committee.
'I think it should be the policy of the United States Government to do everything we can to make (AUKUS) work.
'This is getting back to restoring our defense industrial capacity so that we don't have to face these awful choices but rather can be in a position where we can produce not only for ourselves, but for our allies.'
As of Thursday, he has not commented on his role overseeing the review of AUKUS but took to X to back the messaging of US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
'(Mr Hegseth's) Shangri-La Dialogue speech highlighted the Department of Defense's commonsense approach in the Indo-Pacific to achieve President Trump's Peace Through Strength and America First agenda.'
He also fulfilled the label of 'China hawk' which media companies have given him, highlighting his concerns for the country's expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific region - an issue AUKUS was set up to counter.
'China's actions undermine peace and stability in the region,' he said, referencing its military build up and operations in the South China Sea and near Taiwan.
'These are the reasons driving the United States assessment that China is the most serious and pressing military threat,' he said.
But, as a caveat, Mr Colby then quoted Mr Hegseth's recent statement that the US does not seek war or to 'dominate or strangle China'.
The messaging is similar to that of the American defence official who confirmed to Daily Mail Australia that there would be a review of the AUKUS pact - and why.
'This review will ensure the initiative meets these common sense, America First criteria,' they said.
'This means ensuring the highest readiness of our service members, that allies step up fully to do their part for collective defence, and that the defence industrial base is meeting our needs,' the official said.
In the seven-part thread, Mr Colby identified the US as an Indo-Pacific nation, commenting that prosperity and security of Americans is 'vitally linked with those of our allies and partners in the region'.
Whatever his view on AUKUS, Mr Colby is not enthusiastic about formalising defence ties with a 'NATO-like' alliance in the region.
'I am not theologically opposed to it, Senator, but I have been skeptical,' he told the March hearing.
'Something may be building up to have more multilateralization in the region, but not the huge ambition of an Asia NATO,' he added.
'Especially because you have got Japan over here, India over here, Australia down here. Their circumstances are quite distinct.'
Mr Colby is a long-time loyalist to Donald Trump and the US President's view of the world which is strongly critical of American involvement in overseas conflicts that do not serve US interests.
During Trump's first term, he served from 2017 to 2018 as a deputy assistant secretary of defense.
The key aim of his role was the reorientation of the defence department to prioritise the threat posed by China towards the US.
Between Trump's terms, Mr Colby co-founded think tank The Marathon Initiative in 2019, which focused on preparing the US for an 'era of sustained great power competition'.
A statement from the organisation when he was appointed back into the defense department praised Mr Colby's work shifting foreign policy away from the Middle East and Europe, towards China.
'He has worked persistently, persuasively, and intelligently to keep China at the forefront of the U.S. national security debate,' it said in April.
'His consistent message has been that America must prioritize the top threat facing the country—and that doing so will require tradeoffs.
'Bridge has sought to equip the United States with a coherent framework for ensuring its safety and prosperity against the most formidable rival in our history.'