Cornered by Israel, spurned by Iran, Trump's tightrope snaps
Hours after US President
Donald Trump
, who styles himself as a peacemaker, on Thursday implored Israel not to attack Iran, Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu
, one of Trump's closest global allies, defied him to mount a big attack on Iran's nuclear programme, missile sites and top military generals. Now Iran state TV has announced that Iran will not participate in nuclear negotiations with the US scheduled for Sunday, suspending its involvement 'until further notice'. Trump, who has been trying to strike a nuclear peace deal with Iran, has been cornered by Netanyahu while Iran has spurned him, cancelling the scheduled talks.
Trump finds himself navigating a complex and high-stakes geopolitical landscape. Despite his clear preference for disengagement from new Middle Eastern wars, the actions of US ally Israel and the subsequent fallout with Iran have pushed Trump into an uncomfortable tight spot, throwing Trump's diplomatic ambitions into jeopardy.
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Why Trump wants to stay out of Iran-Israel conflict
Donald Trump's political brand has long capitalized on the image of a dealmaker, particularly in foreign policy. From the Abraham Accords to his high-profile, though unsuccessful, summits with North Korea's
Kim Jong-un
, Trump has repeatedly sought to position himself as a leader who avoids endless wars. Most recently, he falsely claimed several times that he brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan even though India repeatedly refuted his claim.
Trump's peacemaker image deeply resonates with his MAGA base, which is largely wary of foreign entanglements. Trump's rise in Republican politics was fueled in part by his sharp criticism of the Iraq War. While other Republican contenders in 2016 defended past military interventions, Trump promised something different: 'America First' foreign policy, focused on economic strength, border security, and military restraint. He has frequently denounced the 'forever wars' in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the US support for Ukraine, portraying them as costly failures.
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Now, as the Middle East simmers with the potential for a large-scale war between Israel and Iran, Trump knows any move toward US military involvement could alienate his most loyal supporters. His MAGA base is not anti-military but anti-war. It prefers America to not act as a global cop. Social media influencers, conservative media outlets and grassroots voices across the Trump base, all think the US should not get entangled in wars elsewhere which drain US wealth and cost lives too. Many Trump supporters view the Iran-Israel conflict as a regional issue that should be handled by the countries directly involved.
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Trump doesn't want body bags
Another reason Trump wants to stay out of the Iran-Israel conflict is a threat to its soldiers stationed at its military bases in the Middle East which are in close range of Iran's missiles. Even though they are protected by strong air defence, Iran's overwhelming drone and missile attacks can kill hundreds of American soldiers.
The US has operated bases around the Middle East for decades and the largest is Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, built in 1996, based on the number of personnel. Other countries where the US has troops include Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. As per a Reuters report, there are normally about 30,000 US troops across the region, down sharply from when US forces were involved in major operations.
US troops are stationed in the Middle East for a variety of reasons. In some countries like Iraq, US troops are fighting Islamic State militants and local forces. Jordan, a key US ally in the region, has hundreds of US trainers and they hold extensive exercises throughout the year. US troops are in other countries such as Qatar and the UAE as a security assurance, for training and to assist in regional military action as needed. The US is undertaking a bombing campaign against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said just hours after Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran: "We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region." He added, "Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel."
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Is Trump cornered?
If Trump has not been completely cornered, he is certainly constrained. His strategic space is narrowing, and his dual objectives, avoiding war while also projecting strength, are coming into direct conflict. Diplomatically, he has lost the initiative. Iran's withdrawal from talks means that the primary avenue for reducing tensions has been closed, at least temporarily. Politically, Trump risks alienating portions of his base. While many MAGA supporters oppose new wars, they also expect Trump to stand firmly with Israel. This dual loyalty creates a policy contradiction that is becoming harder to manage. Militarily, US troops in the region are vulnerable. Any retaliatory move by Iran or its proxies could force Trump's hand, pushing the US closer to a conflict he is trying to avoid.
Trump's positioning in the Iran-Israel conflict reflects both the strengths and weaknesses of his foreign policy approach. His emphasis on deal-making and non-intervention resonates with many Americans tired of endless wars. Yet, these same principles are now being tested by events beyond his control: Netanyahu has defied him and Iran has withdrawn from talks.
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