Boeing Stock Surges 54% On Trump Tariff Chaos: The DJ TACO Trade

Forbes

9 hours ago

On April 2, 2025—a date President Trump proclaimed "Liberation Day"—the administration announced the most sweeping tariff hike since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, the 1930 law best remembered for triggering a global trade war and deepening the Great Depression. On April 4, Boeing's stock price hit $136.59. It closed Friday, June 6th at $210.86, a whopping 54% return in just two months.
What has become known as the TACO trade—TACO stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out"—has earned the president the Wall Street nickname "DJ Taco." When Trump assumed the presidency for the second time, investors expected unprecedented investment opportunities driven by smaller government, balanced budgets, lower taxes, and fewer regulations. Most Republicans and even Democrats assumed as much. But DJ Taco's on-again, off-again tariff policies have become the primary market driver.
The sentence "tariffs wreak havoc in markets" is widely understood by everyone on Wall Street. However, DJ Taco's approach makes 1930s communist central planning look like amateur hour, with random, nonsensical decisions creating unexpected opportunities for savvy investors willing to navigate the chaos.
Most agree that having a more thoughtful approach to trade, especially with China, makes sense. But for most of the rest of the world, Trump's tariff strategy is more than head-scratching—it's bewildering. Take Boeing's relationships with Japan and Italy, two critical allies and aerospace partners. Boeing's CEO recently stated that tariffs are costing the company $500 million this year alone, yet the stock has soared on the volatility and uncertainty that defines the TACO trade phenomenon.
Several fundamental drivers are powering Boeing's remarkable recovery, making it the ultimate beneficiary of the TACO trade dynamic. The Boeing 737 MAX backlog and production capacity support a significant ramp-up, with demand and infrastructure aligned for higher output and revenue growth. This positions the company perfectly to capitalize on both the chaos and eventual stabilization of trade policies.
Short-term revenue and profit growth hinge on lifting the FAA's production cap and stabilizing at higher rates, with the potential for $400 billion in revenues by 2034. While an accelerated production increase offers substantial upside, Boeing must prioritize operational stability to avoid jeopardizing long-term prospects and balance sheet improvement. Despite near-term investor impatience, sustainable growth and production reliability remain key—pushing too fast risks undermining Boeing's recovery and future opportunities.
The company is gaining momentum with higher production rates and strong net order value, outpacing Airbus in wide-body orders and overall order value. This competitive advantage becomes even more pronounced in the current trade environment, where supply chain disruptions and tariff uncertainties favor established American manufacturers with domestic production capabilities.
Airbus leads in single-aisle deliveries but faces significant supply chain constraints, limiting its ability to ramp up production further. Both manufacturers are benefiting from robust demand, reflected in large backlogs, but Boeing's recovery and inventory deliveries give it a near-term edge that the TACO trade amplifies.
The European manufacturer's supply chain vulnerabilities become more pronounced when trade policies shift unpredictably. If Airbus resolves its supply chain issues, it could quickly regain delivery share, making 2025 a pivotal year for both companies' production outlooks. However, the current tariff environment creates additional headwinds for international competitors while potentially benefiting domestic producers like Boeing.
The TACO trade represents more than just Trump's tendency to reverse course on harsh rhetoric—it embodies the market's adaptation to policy whiplash. Investors have learned to position themselves for both the initial shock of aggressive announcements and the subsequent backpedaling that typically follows.
Boeing exemplifies this dynamic perfectly. The company benefits from being perceived as both a victim of trade wars (driving sympathy buying) and a beneficiary of America First policies (attracting nationalist investment). When tariffs are announced, Boeing initially suffers due to retaliation concerns and supply chain disruptions. But when Trump inevitably "chickens out" or moderates his position, Boeing surges on relief rallies and renewed optimism about international partnerships.
The aerospace giant's stock performance reflects this pattern: initial volatility followed by sustained gains as markets recognize the underlying strength of the business model and the temporary nature of most trade disruptions. Smart investors have learned to buy Boeing on tariff announcements and hold through the eventual policy reversals.
DJ Taco's trade policies create a unique investment environment where companies with strong fundamentals but international exposure become prime TACO trade candidates. Boeing's 54% return in two months demonstrates how market participants can profit from policy inconsistency when they understand the underlying pattern.
The key to successful TACO trading lies in identifying companies that will ultimately benefit from policy reversals while possessing the financial strength to weather initial disruptions. Boeing, with its essential role in American aerospace dominance and global commercial aviation, represents the perfect storm of characteristics that make TACO trades profitable.
As we move forward, expect continued volatility around trade announcements, but also recognize that the TACO trade pattern creates predictable opportunities for investors willing to embrace the chaos of DJ Taco's policy-making style.
Note: The author owns securities in some of the companies mentioned in this article.