On patrol at the US border with an armed vigilante
Donald Trump has launched an unprecedented crackdown on immigration in the US, with raids carried out across the country by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, better known as ICE.
But despite a huge drop in the numbers of people making the crossing into the United States, people like Tim are still taking matters into their own hands – grabbing weapons and patrolling the boundary with Mexico on their own.
We join this lone-vigilante in Arizona, as he tracks migrants and feeds information to the actual border police, while confronting good Samaritans trying to offer the most basic assistance to anyone still risking the journey to cross into America.
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Correspondent: Paul McNamara Director/DOP: Michael Downey Producer: Jeff Neumann and Vik Patel Editors: Ricardo Marcelino, Alex Micklewright and Sophie Larkin-Tanner
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Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Holes in EU Russia sanctions put attention back on Trump oil threat
LONDON, July 22 - The European Union's latest effort to restrict Russia's oil revenue is unlikely to hurt Moscow's war effort severely, leaving U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of secondary sanctions one of the few remaining economic levers to pressure the Kremlin. The EU on Friday agreed on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said was one of the strongest to date. The package lowers the price cap on Russian crude to $47.60 a barrel from $60, meaning shippers and insurance companies seeking to avoid sanctions can't handle purchases made above this level. The new cap, which takes effect on September 3, also includes a mechanism to ensure it is always 15% below average Russian crude prices. A significant new addition is an import ban on refined oil products made from Russian crude. The ban, which would likely kick in next year, seeks to close a loophole created after the EU halted most imports of Russian crude and refined products in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This action led to sharp rises in European imports of fuels, particularly diesel and aviation fuel, from China, India and Turkey. The effectiveness of these initial measures was limited, however, as refiners in those three countries sharply increased imports of Russian feedstock due to the discounts created by the price cap. Ultimately, the biggest loser from the new ban would likely be India, which accounted for 16% of Europe's imports of diesel and jet fuel last year, according to Kpler data. Russian crude also accounted for 38% of India's crude imports in 2024. The new ban would exempt countries that are net exporters of crude, meaning the biggest beneficiaries of the new restriction will likely be Gulf producers with large refining operations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait that could pick up the slack from Indian refineries and export more fuel to Europe. The Western sanctions on Russia's oil sector since 2022 have been carefully crafted to avoid creating a severe energy price shock while still aiming to constrain the revenue of Moscow, the world's third-largest oil exporter. They haven't been overly successful on the latter point. Russia's crude oil and oil products export revenues reached $192 billion in 2024, significantly more than its defence budget of $110 billion that year. That compared with oil export revenue of $225 billion in 2019. While Russia's oil exports declined slightly in June to 7.23 million barrels per day, revenue rose by $800 million from May to $13.6 billion thanks to higher global oil prices, according to International Energy Agency estimates. This partly reflects the fact that Russia has found some workarounds, including developing a vast and opaque network of tankers, insurance and payment schemes that allow it to export its oil above the price cap. The EU's latest package has also placed 105 additional tankers under sanctions for evading the original price cap, in addition to the 342 already sanctioned. But Moscow will likely find ways to evade the worst effects of the new sanctions, perhaps by expanding the shadow fleet or further obscuring the origin of its oil through measures such as mid-ocean ship-to-ship transfers. Moreover, India and China will likely continue buying discounted Russian crude to benefit their domestic markets, while re-routing fuel exports previously bound to the EU to new markets. So even though, on paper, the new price cap could collectively reduce Russia's oil revenue, in reality, the new EU measures are unlikely to choke off Moscow's financial lifeblood. One way to hit Moscow's finances would be for President Trump to implement the "secondary sanctions" he threatened last week, whereby countries that buy oil from Moscow will be hit with 100% tariffs unless the Kremlin reaches a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days. These secondary tariffs mean any country buying Russian oil would face severe restrictions on its ability to trade with the world's largest economy. Would Trump actually take this drastic step? Trump has expressed significant frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks. And given that the multiple rounds of EU and U.S. sanctions on Russia have had a limited impact on Moscow's war chest, secondary sanctions could be one of the few effective tools left. But in a global energy market, this effectiveness is precisely the problem. If this drastic escalation of the West's economic war on Moscow were to severely curtail Russia's oil exports, this would also likely lead to a sharp increase in global oil prices and higher inflation – two things the U.S. president certainly does not want. And that's likely why – despite all these developments – Moscow and oil traders both appear relatively unfazed for now. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI, opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Fed reform may move markets more than Powell ouster
LONDON, July 22 (Reuters) - Changing the way the Federal Reserve operates or assesses the economy may have a more durable impact on policy and markets than firing the Fed boss. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added another twist to President Donald Trump's ongoing criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday by claiming he wanted to review the entire Fed institution and its performance. In an interview with CNBC, Bessent claimed the Fed's "fear-mongering over tariffs" without significant signs of inflation was justification for considering a root-and-branch review of the central bank's functioning. "What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful," he said. "All these PhDs over there, I don't know what they do." It's not yet clear whether Bessent was merely heaping more pressure on the Fed to speed up interest rate cuts, as Trump has been demanding almost daily, or whether the administration is actually planning to conduct a formal review of Fed operations, analysis and execution. While recent weeks have been filled with anxious noise about Trump attempting to fire Powell, this latest development - possible changes to the way the Fed ticks - could be much more far-reaching and impactful than simply truncating the tenure of one Chair. Of course, the Fed Chair is an important role, and a politically motivated ouster would be a serious challenge to Fed independence. Yet the Fed boss ultimately remains just one vote on the rate-setting board, and the Fed's policymaking structure is partly designed to insulate the central bank from any undue political influence. The Federal Open Market Committee that sets policy is made up of seven Fed board members and five regional Fed bosses, but the FOMC chair and vice chair are voted in by the committee at the start of each year. The Fed Chair typically takes the helm by convention, but not necessity. If a majority of the FOMC members balked at a politically partisan appointee to the top job, they could theoretically vote for a different Chair of the FOMC in an act of defiance. But, regardless, the Chair is still only one vote. Changing the Fed's institutional structure would require Congressional approval, a process likely to be protracted as many Republicans, including strong Trump supporters, may be wary of tampering with the Fed. Moreover, a recent Supreme Court ruling also suggested Fed structures should be left in place due to "a special historical status". But influencing the way the Fed thinks, forecasts and operates is a different matter. To complicate matters further, the Wall Street Journal on Monday claimed Bessent counseled Trump against firing Powell, arguing that the current Fed Chair might sue, or Congress could drag its feet on approving a replacement. Both scenarios could result in a leadership hiatus that would see Joe Biden appointee Vice Fed Chair Philip Jefferson assume the role. Bessent argued the price of removing Powell now was potential market disruption and economic uncertainty for no real gain in influence compared with waiting for Powell's term to just expire in May, the WSJ said. Trump, already battling with the WSJ on another story, dismissed the report as 'fake'. Bessent said the decision was ultimately up to Trump. But the messiness of Powell's removal may be why the administration sees other pressure on the Fed to buckle on rates soon as more fruitful. After all, two Trump appointees to the board - Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman - already arguing for immediate cuts and two more board positions, including Powell's, are likely to come up by this time next year. That would leave a majority on the board being Trump appointees - even though not the FOMC. SGH Macro Advisors' Tim Duy reckons that to reshape the Fed, the White House needs even more seats to shift the board - building a block of Trump nominees sufficient to out-vote the five regional Presidents that make up the rest of the FOMC. Without that, it leaves the Trump team trying to change the DNA of Fed thinking and a major review that shifts standing assumptions, forecasting patterns and public presentations may be significant longer-term. Current favorite to be Trump's pick for the Chair, former Fed policymaker Kevin Warsh, who is a known critic of orthodox Fed analysis, doubts there's a trade-off between jobs and inflation the way it's currently presented and claims rates can move lower if balance sheet policies were tighter. If markets think it's inappropriate to ease now, of course, then inflation expectations may just build on fears of undue political influence and long-term borrowing rates should rise. But it may not be that clean. "The goal appears to be to keep policy rates low while shifting U.S. Treasury issuance to the front end of the curve," wrote SGH Macro's Duy. "While excessively loose policy would be expected to raise long term rates, there is the possibility that Fed and Treasury manage the debt with an eye toward yield curve control." That's a delicate balance that might come off - but guaranteeing the Fed comes on board will not be easy. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters -- Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn. Plus, sign up for my weekday newsletter Morning Bid U.S.
The Herald Scotland
2 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Democrat cities should expect 'flood' of ICE agents: White House
"We're going to flood the zone," Homan said at a July 21 press conference. "Sanctuary cities get exactly what they don't want: more agents in the community and more agents in the work site. When we arrest (a suspected illegal immigrant) in the community, if he's with others that are in the country illegally, they're coming too." Sanctuary cities won't help with ICE arrests The White House has repeatedly singled out cities from Los Angeles to Denver to Boston for their refusal to assist ICE agents making detentions, and Homan has threatened to arrest elected officials who stymie the president. Migrant-rights groups warn increased enforcement raises the risk of more civil rights violations and violent confrontations, like the chaotic protests that broke out in Los Angeles last month following ICE raids at a Home Depot, among other locations. Homan spoke in New York City after an off-duty Border Patrol was injured during an attempted robbery that officials say was committed by an undocumented immigrant. Homan and other White House officials argue the agent would never have been hurt if his alleged assailant had previously been blocked from entering the country or deported. Trump officials have long complained that many cities run by Democrats refuse to honor requests to detain people on behalf of ICE in local jails, and Homan said doing so makes it harder for ICE to arrest "bad guys" in the safety of a detention center. He said making street arrests is more dangerous for everyone, requiring more personnel to operate safely. Federal officials say there's been an 800% increase in assaults against immigration agents, although they have declined to release comprehensive data. Last month, Trump deployed the National Guard and Marines to Los Angeles to help protect federal buildings and assist ICE agents in making detentions, a move that temporarily escalated tensions. ICE has conducted immigration enforcement actions around the country but it's yet to focus a sustained effort in any particular sanctuary city outside of the Los Angeles area. Budget balloons for immigrant arrests and detentions The federal spending plan, among other things, provides funding for 10,000 new Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to help carry out Trump's plan to deport 1 million people annually. Trump won the White House after campaigning on a platform that included dramatically stricter immigration enforcement and border controls, and the federal funding plan he signed July 4 provides money to dramatically expand the number of ICE agents on the streets, $45 billion for more than 100,000 new detention beds for people facing deportation, $46.6 billion for border wall construction and $10 billion in additional Homeland Security funding. ICE now has a bigger budget than the FBI, DEA, ATF, U.S. Marshals Service and the Bureau of Prisons combined, according to an analysis by the American Immigration Council. Public has begun pushing back against Trump's immigration policies The increased funding for one of Trump's signature policies comes as the American public appears to be growing increasingly concerned about the tactics being deployed. A July 20 poll by CBS/YouGov found that 56% of Americans disapproved of the president's immigration measures, while 44% approved, a 10-point drop from February. While Trump and Homan argue that anyone living illegally in the United States is by definition a criminal, federal statistics show that only about 36% of current ICE detainees have ever been convicted of a crime, while 31% have pending criminal charges and the remaining 33% are facing just immigration violations, according to analysis by Austin Kocher, a Syracuse University research assistant professor who tracks ICE data. The nonprofit American Immigration Council criticized the massive funding expansion, which came without any fundamental reform to the nation's immigration process. Many immigrants living in the United States entered under policies that were legal at the time, or have been waiting years for the chance to apply for citizenship. "Throwing billions at detention centers and enforcement agents is short-sighted. Instead, we should be investing in a system aimed at welcoming immigrants that contribute billions to our economy," said Adriel Orozco, senior policy counsel at the American Immigration Council. "We don't need more jail beds and indiscriminate raids. We need balanced solutions that strengthen due process and keep families together."
