Russia pushes forward in Donetsk Oblast, threatening Ukrainian pocket around Toretsk

Yahoo

24-05-2025

Russian troops have upped the intensity of their Donetsk Oblast offensive in recent weeks, increasingly pressuring a relatively large Ukrainian pocket between some of the last cities in the region.
An unsettling situation for Ukrainian troops is now unfolding south of the town of Kostiantynivka, which has long served as a relatively safe logistics hub for Ukrainian troops defending the areas around the now Russian-occupied Bakhmut.
Russian troops have been pushing toward Kostiantynivka from two directions, slowly closing in on the Ukrainian pocket west of Toretsk. Western military experts say that Russia appears to have the resources to keep "creeping" forward, and the question is how much and for how long the Ukrainian forces deployed in the area can hold on.
"The problem is this large bulge between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk has been growing relatively fast," Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group monitoring the war closely through open sources, told the Kyiv Independent.
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"If it grows at this rate, the Russians will be threatening the supply routes into Kostiantynivka in a couple of months already."
Concerns rise over the potential Russian encirclement of Ukrainian troops defending the Toretsk and Kostiantynivka area, according to Kastehelmi.
Russia has held the initiative on the battlefield in the Donetsk Oblast since the fall of 2023, after Ukraine's failed summer counteroffensive.
The recent Russian push comes as the U.S. continues to insist on peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to end the war at all costs. U.S. President Donald Trump and his team have made numerous threats that Washington could walk away from the peace process if there is no progress made in the near future, putting U.S. military support and intelligence sharing with Ukraine on the line.
The experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent said that the current Russian push in Donetsk Oblast is setting the stage for a major upcoming offensive.
"I think that this is a development that will continue to be a growing issue for Ukraine during the summer because, as far as I know, the Russians should have relatively large reserves that they can commit to the battle in the coming weeks and months," Kastehelmi said.
Ukraine had largely stabilized the situation on the eastern front earlier this year after Russia ramped up the offensive tempo in the summer of 2024, likely taking advantage of multiple elite Ukrainian units being deployed to Russia's Kursk Oblast for a surprise cross-border incursion.
One such unit, the 80th Air Assault Brigade, had manned the defense near Klishchiivka, a village south of Chasiv Yar and north of Toretsk that Ukraine liberated in 2023.
"Whilst the offensive is still underway, they're probably building momentum for higher tempo and more intense offensive operations in the coming months."
Factors such as Ukraine's manpower shortage and the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian units deployed in the area would dictate how Ukrainian troops will hold onto the pocket south of Kostiantynivka, according to Kastehelmi. The lack of well-trained troops remains the army's weakest spot, with Ukraine struggling to recruit new soldiers and train them to prepare for the brutal reality of the war, experts and officers say.
Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState said in April that Russian troops were preparing to advance in an area southwest of Toretsk by solidifying their presence in the village of Kalynove down south.
The question hangs over the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian units deployed in the area, as reinforcing the area with units that aren't battered after fighting in hot spots of the war, such as Kursk Oblast, would be a challenge, according to Kastehelmi.
"The Ukrainians need to make some difficult decisions on what directions they can prioritize and what reserves they can commit," the expert said.
Retired Australian Army Major-General Mick Ryan, who has closely observed the war in Ukraine, said that even if Ukraine were to lose the pocket south of Kostiantynivka, he doesn't believe that it would bring "any significant shift in the trajectory of the war at this point."
While it is still "a significant bit of territory," the more pressing concern is for Russia not to gain momentum after potentially conquering it, according to Ryan.
"The last thing you want is for the Russians to become more confident and think they can generate additional momentum because they take this area," Ryan told the Kyiv Independent.
The Australian expert said that Russia is adapting its tactics on the front line, for example, increasingly using fiber optic and first-person-view (FPV) drones, enabling Russian troops to achieve better results.
"Whilst the offensive is still underway, they're probably building momentum for higher tempo and more intense offensive operations in the coming months," Ryan said.
For now, the question is whether Ukraine would make the timely decision to withdraw from the pocket, rather than holding onto unfavorable positions at a heavy cost, according to Kastehelmi from the Black Bird Group.
Ukrainian soldiers who spoke to the Kyiv Independent often criticized their command to "hold until the end," even if the positions would soon be overrun by Russian troops and the Ukrainians would be left without proper evacuation or orderly withdrawal.
"This summer and the next fall will look really difficult," Kastehelmi said.
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