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The Independent
27-05-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
‘Ample evidence' Russia preparing fresh offensive despite talk of ceasefire, claims Zelensky
Russia is preparing to launch a new military offensive in Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed, even as the Kremlin suggests i t is still open to peace talks. After a weekend of unprecedented Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine, involving more than 900 missiles and drones, Zelensky claimed Kyiv had obtained intelligence suggesting Moscow was on the brink of a new push. 'We can see from the information obtained by intelligence and from open-source data that Putin and his entourage do not plan to end the war,' the Ukrainian president said in his nightly address on Monday. 'There is currently no indication that they are seriously considering peace or diplomacy. On the contrary, there is ample evidence that they are preparing new offensive operations.' Russian troops have increased their attacks in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region in recent weeks, targeting an area 30 miles long between the two cities of Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka, analysts tracking the frontline have told The Independent. Emil Kastahelmi, who runs the Black Bird Group, a Finnish open-source intelligence outfit that uses satellite imagery and social media to track the frontline in Ukraine, says Russia's rate of advance is the fastest it has been this year. 'And it will likely grow during the summer, as Russians should have reserves for larger offensive actions,' he said. He added that they have witnessed additional attacks south of Pokrovsk towards the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk. A former Ukrainian officer who writes under the name Tatarigami wrote on X that the advances, albeit still minor, are the result of months-long efforts by Russia to disrupt Ukrainian logistics lines to the front. 'Cutting off supply lines has made vehicle transport nearly impossible,' Tatarigami, who heads Frontelligence Insight analysis group, wrote. 'In some cases, individual soldiers must walk more than 10 km at night to deliver basic supplies: an unsustainable way for supporting any sizeable unit, or even rotating troops.' Both Mr Kastehelmi and Tatarigami say these issues have been compounded by Ukraine's ongoing recruitment issues, with not enough new soldiers deploying and too many tired troops being unable to rotate out. That Russia hasn't taken more territory in the current climate is a testament to the determination of Ukraine's fatigued forces, they both said. According to Western intelligence estimates, Russia's current rate of recruitment is around 30,000 per month, more than six times that of Ukraine. Zelensky's announcement comes after US president Donald Trump suggested Putin had 'gone absolutely crazy' after the weekend of massive Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine. Trump suggested Putin was 'needlessly killing' civilians - a fact that has been true for at least the entirety of Russia's full-scale invasion - before warning Moscow against trying to conquer all of Ukraine. Putin claims to be invested in agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine but has declined at every opportunity to alter his maximalist demands, which would amount to the effective end of Ukraine's sovereignty, as a prerequisite to peace. After a call with Trump last week, Putin said that Moscow was ready to work with Ukraine on a memorandum about a future peace accord. He said the memorandum would define the principles of a possible settlement, the timing of a possible peace agreement and details about a possible ceasefire. On Tuesday, foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said work was continuing on the Russian draft and that once the document was ready, it would be handed over to Ukraine.
Yahoo
24-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Russia pushes forward in Donetsk Oblast, threatening Ukrainian pocket around Toretsk
Russian troops have upped the intensity of their Donetsk Oblast offensive in recent weeks, increasingly pressuring a relatively large Ukrainian pocket between some of the last cities in the region. An unsettling situation for Ukrainian troops is now unfolding south of the town of Kostiantynivka, which has long served as a relatively safe logistics hub for Ukrainian troops defending the areas around the now Russian-occupied Bakhmut. Russian troops have been pushing toward Kostiantynivka from two directions, slowly closing in on the Ukrainian pocket west of Toretsk. Western military experts say that Russia appears to have the resources to keep "creeping" forward, and the question is how much and for how long the Ukrainian forces deployed in the area can hold on. "The problem is this large bulge between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk has been growing relatively fast," Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group monitoring the war closely through open sources, told the Kyiv Independent. Read also: Why Washington failed to end the Russo-Ukrainian War "If it grows at this rate, the Russians will be threatening the supply routes into Kostiantynivka in a couple of months already." Concerns rise over the potential Russian encirclement of Ukrainian troops defending the Toretsk and Kostiantynivka area, according to Kastehelmi. Russia has held the initiative on the battlefield in the Donetsk Oblast since the fall of 2023, after Ukraine's failed summer counteroffensive. The recent Russian push comes as the U.S. continues to insist on peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to end the war at all costs. U.S. President Donald Trump and his team have made numerous threats that Washington could walk away from the peace process if there is no progress made in the near future, putting U.S. military support and intelligence sharing with Ukraine on the line. The experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent said that the current Russian push in Donetsk Oblast is setting the stage for a major upcoming offensive. "I think that this is a development that will continue to be a growing issue for Ukraine during the summer because, as far as I know, the Russians should have relatively large reserves that they can commit to the battle in the coming weeks and months," Kastehelmi said. Ukraine had largely stabilized the situation on the eastern front earlier this year after Russia ramped up the offensive tempo in the summer of 2024, likely taking advantage of multiple elite Ukrainian units being deployed to Russia's Kursk Oblast for a surprise cross-border incursion. One such unit, the 80th Air Assault Brigade, had manned the defense near Klishchiivka, a village south of Chasiv Yar and north of Toretsk that Ukraine liberated in 2023. "Whilst the offensive is still underway, they're probably building momentum for higher tempo and more intense offensive operations in the coming months." Factors such as Ukraine's manpower shortage and the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian units deployed in the area would dictate how Ukrainian troops will hold onto the pocket south of Kostiantynivka, according to Kastehelmi. The lack of well-trained troops remains the army's weakest spot, with Ukraine struggling to recruit new soldiers and train them to prepare for the brutal reality of the war, experts and officers say. Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState said in April that Russian troops were preparing to advance in an area southwest of Toretsk by solidifying their presence in the village of Kalynove down south. The question hangs over the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian units deployed in the area, as reinforcing the area with units that aren't battered after fighting in hot spots of the war, such as Kursk Oblast, would be a challenge, according to Kastehelmi. "The Ukrainians need to make some difficult decisions on what directions they can prioritize and what reserves they can commit," the expert said. Retired Australian Army Major-General Mick Ryan, who has closely observed the war in Ukraine, said that even if Ukraine were to lose the pocket south of Kostiantynivka, he doesn't believe that it would bring "any significant shift in the trajectory of the war at this point." While it is still "a significant bit of territory," the more pressing concern is for Russia not to gain momentum after potentially conquering it, according to Ryan. "The last thing you want is for the Russians to become more confident and think they can generate additional momentum because they take this area," Ryan told the Kyiv Independent. The Australian expert said that Russia is adapting its tactics on the front line, for example, increasingly using fiber optic and first-person-view (FPV) drones, enabling Russian troops to achieve better results. "Whilst the offensive is still underway, they're probably building momentum for higher tempo and more intense offensive operations in the coming months," Ryan said. For now, the question is whether Ukraine would make the timely decision to withdraw from the pocket, rather than holding onto unfavorable positions at a heavy cost, according to Kastehelmi from the Black Bird Group. Ukrainian soldiers who spoke to the Kyiv Independent often criticized their command to "hold until the end," even if the positions would soon be overrun by Russian troops and the Ukrainians would be left without proper evacuation or orderly withdrawal. "This summer and the next fall will look really difficult," Kastehelmi said. Read also: 'It's okay, Mom, I'm home' —Ukraine, Russia hold largest prisoner swap of the war We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Sydney Morning Herald
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
Russia beefs up forces near Finland's border
From Moscow's perspective, the Russians need to bolster their defences to protect themselves from NATO expansion, which has always been a sore subject. The Baltic nations were the first members of the former Soviet Union to join NATO, bringing large stretches of Russia's border up against NATO's. The prospect of Ukraine, an even bigger former Soviet republic, following suit was so threatening to Moscow that it became one of the causes of the most devastating land war in generations. 'The Russian military has undergone a significant force expansion,' said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. 'After the war, the ground force will probably end up larger than before 2022. Looking at the planned restructuring of military districts, it seems clear that they're going to prioritise areas facing NATO.' NATO officials agree. Whenever the war in Ukraine ends, a senior NATO official said, Russia would redeploy troops farther and farther to the north. Russia believes that the Arctic and access to the Arctic are key to great power status, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. According to satellite imagery, Russian helicopters returned to a base near Murmansk, a port city in the Arctic Circle, after they had not been there for two decades. As Ukrainian drones target airfields across Russia, Russian command has moved assets north to get out of range. This has put them much closer to NATO territory. Dozens of Russian warplanes were recently spotted at the Olenya air base, also in the Arctic and fewer than 100 miles from the Finnish border, according to the satellite imagery. Other recent activity includes more than 100 new tents that appeared about a year ago at Kamenka, a Russian base fewer than 40 miles from Finland. 'They are expanding their brigades into divisions, which means that the units near our borders will grow significantly – by thousands,' said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, a Finnish organisation that analyses the military developments in the north and in Ukraine. Loading Kastehelmi, who analysed dozens of recent images for The New York Times, said that the next few years could bring massive changes to the Finnish frontier, depending on how and when the war in Ukraine ends. At Alakurtti, which is also close to Finland, and Petrozavodsk, a little farther away, the Russians have new buildings that can house at least dozens of vehicles. Activity has also increased elsewhere. New tents and military equipment recently appeared at a base about 80 miles from Estonia. The Finns have an old expression: Russia is never as strong as it looks and never as weak as it looks. So, Finnish defence leaders have been characteristically matter-of-fact about the build-up.
The Age
20-05-2025
- Politics
- The Age
Russia beefs up forces near Finland's border
From Moscow's perspective, the Russians need to bolster their defences to protect themselves from NATO expansion, which has always been a sore subject. The Baltic nations were the first members of the former Soviet Union to join NATO, bringing large stretches of Russia's border up against NATO's. The prospect of Ukraine, an even bigger former Soviet republic, following suit was so threatening to Moscow that it became one of the causes of the most devastating land war in generations. 'The Russian military has undergone a significant force expansion,' said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. 'After the war, the ground force will probably end up larger than before 2022. Looking at the planned restructuring of military districts, it seems clear that they're going to prioritise areas facing NATO.' NATO officials agree. Whenever the war in Ukraine ends, a senior NATO official said, Russia would redeploy troops farther and farther to the north. Russia believes that the Arctic and access to the Arctic are key to great power status, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. According to satellite imagery, Russian helicopters returned to a base near Murmansk, a port city in the Arctic Circle, after they had not been there for two decades. As Ukrainian drones target airfields across Russia, Russian command has moved assets north to get out of range. This has put them much closer to NATO territory. Dozens of Russian warplanes were recently spotted at the Olenya air base, also in the Arctic and fewer than 100 miles from the Finnish border, according to the satellite imagery. Other recent activity includes more than 100 new tents that appeared about a year ago at Kamenka, a Russian base fewer than 40 miles from Finland. 'They are expanding their brigades into divisions, which means that the units near our borders will grow significantly – by thousands,' said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, a Finnish organisation that analyses the military developments in the north and in Ukraine. Loading Kastehelmi, who analysed dozens of recent images for The New York Times, said that the next few years could bring massive changes to the Finnish frontier, depending on how and when the war in Ukraine ends. At Alakurtti, which is also close to Finland, and Petrozavodsk, a little farther away, the Russians have new buildings that can house at least dozens of vehicles. Activity has also increased elsewhere. New tents and military equipment recently appeared at a base about 80 miles from Estonia. The Finns have an old expression: Russia is never as strong as it looks and never as weak as it looks. So, Finnish defence leaders have been characteristically matter-of-fact about the build-up.
Yahoo
29-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Ukrainian forces push 3-4 km inside Belgorod region, Reuters reports
Ukrainian forces have advanced three to four kilometers into Russia's Belgorod region, engaging in battles with Russian troops, according to Russian military bloggers and independent analysts. Military expert Emil Kastehelmi of the Black Bird Group told Reuters Ukrainian troops had penetrated Russia's first line of defense, though he noted that their ability to launch a major breakthrough remains unlikely. The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims. Open-source intelligence suggests Kyiv's forces are still present in some parts of the region, though neither Ukraine nor Russia has officially confirmed the incursion. Belgorod Oblast is regularly used by Russia to launch strikes against Ukrainian territory. At the same time, Belgorod region authorities have repeatedly accused Ukraine of launching attacks against the region and Belgorod city throughout the full-scale war. The Ukrainian operation appears to be aimed at diverting Russian forces as Moscow intensifies efforts to push Kyiv's troops out of Kursk, where Ukraine has maintained control of nearly 80 square kilometers since last August. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian forces had taken "certain steps" inside Russia outside of Kursk, though he did not provide details. He described the operation as an effort to "reduce the accumulation" of Russian forces threatening Ukrainian positions. Reports from Russian military bloggers describe heavy fighting in the settlements of Popovka and Demidovka, with both sides deploying drones and artillery. The Rybar Telegram channel claimed Russian forces had moved reinforcements from Goptarovka in Kursk to Belgorod, reinforcing defensive positions. In Kursk, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its forces had recaptured the village of Gogolevka, one of the last settlements Ukraine controlled after its offensive last year. However, Ukraine's General Staff reported that its forces had repelled 18 Russian attacks in the region over the past day. Open-source analysis from Deep State, a Ukrainian military blog, indicated that Ukraine still holds some territory in Gogolevka and has not been fully pushed out of the region. Belgorod Oblast is located in western Russia and borders Ukraine's Sumy, Kharkiv, and Luhansk oblasts in the south and west. Read also: Ukraine denies Russian claims of thwarted attempt to invade Belgorod Oblast — here's what we know We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
