‘Ample evidence' Russia preparing fresh offensive despite talk of ceasefire, claims Zelensky

Independent

27-05-2025

Russia is preparing to launch a new military offensive in Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed, even as the Kremlin suggests i t is still open to peace talks.
After a weekend of unprecedented Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine, involving more than 900 missiles and drones, Zelensky claimed Kyiv had obtained intelligence suggesting Moscow was on the brink of a new push.
'We can see from the information obtained by intelligence and from open-source data that Putin and his entourage do not plan to end the war,' the Ukrainian president said in his nightly address on Monday.
'There is currently no indication that they are seriously considering peace or diplomacy. On the contrary, there is ample evidence that they are preparing new offensive operations.'
Russian troops have increased their attacks in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region in recent weeks, targeting an area 30 miles long between the two cities of Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka, analysts tracking the frontline have told The Independent.
Emil Kastahelmi, who runs the Black Bird Group, a Finnish open-source intelligence outfit that uses satellite imagery and social media to track the frontline in Ukraine, says Russia's rate of advance is the fastest it has been this year.
'And it will likely grow during the summer, as Russians should have reserves for larger offensive actions,' he said.
He added that they have witnessed additional attacks south of Pokrovsk towards the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk.
A former Ukrainian officer who writes under the name Tatarigami wrote on X that the advances, albeit still minor, are the result of months-long efforts by Russia to disrupt Ukrainian logistics lines to the front.
'Cutting off supply lines has made vehicle transport nearly impossible,' Tatarigami, who heads Frontelligence Insight analysis group, wrote. 'In some cases, individual soldiers must walk more than 10 km at night to deliver basic supplies: an unsustainable way for supporting any sizeable unit, or even rotating troops.'
Both Mr Kastehelmi and Tatarigami say these issues have been compounded by Ukraine's ongoing recruitment issues, with not enough new soldiers deploying and too many tired troops being unable to rotate out. That Russia hasn't taken more territory in the current climate is a testament to the determination of Ukraine's fatigued forces, they both said.
According to Western intelligence estimates, Russia's current rate of recruitment is around 30,000 per month, more than six times that of Ukraine.
Zelensky's announcement comes after US president Donald Trump suggested Putin had 'gone absolutely crazy' after the weekend of massive Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine.
Trump suggested Putin was 'needlessly killing' civilians - a fact that has been true for at least the entirety of Russia's full-scale invasion - before warning Moscow against trying to conquer all of Ukraine.
Putin claims to be invested in agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine but has declined at every opportunity to alter his maximalist demands, which would amount to the effective end of Ukraine's sovereignty, as a prerequisite to peace.
After a call with Trump last week, Putin said that Moscow was ready to work with Ukraine on a memorandum about a future peace accord. He said the memorandum would define the principles of a possible settlement, the timing of a possible peace agreement and details about a possible ceasefire.
On Tuesday, foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said work was continuing on the Russian draft and that once the document was ready, it would be handed over to Ukraine.