Major chunk of Pacific coast from California to Canada will sink into the sea if mega-earthquake hits this spot, doomsday study warns
This should have West Coasters shaking in their shoes.
Hundreds of miles of coastline in the Pacific Northwest could go straight into the drink if another major earthquake strikes the region, an alarming new study warned.
A 600-mile-long earthquake hotspot off the Pacific Coast could be due for another monster rumble — and if one happens, shorelines from northern California to Vancouver, Canada, could suddenly sink 6 feet or more.
Towns and cities for hundreds of miles would find themselves in a brand new floodplain, at risk of catastrophic floods and tsunamis at any moment, according to the study published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The aforementioned earthquake minefield is called the Cascadia Subduction Zone, an undersea fault line roughly 100 miles off the coast of North America.
6 A beach in Samoa, California, which could be underwater if an earthquake hits.
San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images
6 Damage from a 1964 quake in Anchorage, Alaska.
U.S. Geological Survey
6 A map of earthquake hotspots around the Pacific Ocean showing the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
FEMA
A big quake there could send massive tsunamis hurtling toward the shore and change the landscape forever.
It could double the 'flooding exposure of residents, structures and roads,' the study warned. Bridges, power lines and other infrastructure would need to be totally rebuilt or else risk instant destruction in a major storm.
The land at risk of flooding would increase by 116 square miles (the equivalent of five Manhattans), the number of people living in floodplains would increase from around 8,000 to 22,000 — and the number of at-risk structures would go from around 13,000 to 36,000, according to the study.
Those grim numbers are more than a hypothetical guess: The study's authors looked at data from another monster earthquake that wiped out a section of Canadian coastline in 1700.
6 An off-road vehicle drives the sandy trails of the Samoa Dunes Recreation Area in Samoa, California.
ZUMAPRESS.com
6 Dust rising from the side of a cliff after an earthquake in Coleville, California, on July 8, 2021
via REUTERS
6 Graphics from the study published in 'Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences' show the possible effects of a major Cascadia quake.
PNAS
Oral histories by the Huu-ay-aht First Nation, in present-day Vancouver Island, tell of shaking that was so intense they thought two cosmic beings — a thunderbird and a whale — must be fighting it out.
Whole forests and villages plunged into the sea, and only one in 600 people living in the area are said to have survived, according to a paper published in Seismological Research Letters.
Modern science has backed up that terrifying tale: Researchers discovered 'ghost forests' and fields of native grasses that seem to have been submerged in moments — a kind of geological snapshot of what could happen if the proverbial thunderbird and whale get into another scrap.
Earthquakes are impossible to truly predict, but in the next 50 years, scientists have put the odds of a major quake at 7-12% in the Cascadia Zone, and 37-42% for just the southern section, which includes northern California and Oregon.
By the year 2060, those odds will have roughly doubled, according to the United States Geological Survey.
So if you buy a beach house in the Pacific Northwest, you might also want to get a canoe.
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San Francisco Chronicle
4 hours ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Study says California is overdue for a major earthquake. Does that mean ‘the big one' is coming?
Unlike other earthquake-prone places around the planet, California is overdue for a major quake, according to a recent study. But that doesn't mean a catastrophic event like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake is on the verge of striking. 'A fault's 'overdue' is not a loan payment overdue,' said Lucy Jones, founder of the Dr. Lucy Jones Center for Science and Society and a research associate at the California Institute of Technology, who wasn't part of the work. The new study reported that a large share of California faults have been running 'late,' based on the expected time span between damaging temblors. The researchers compiled a geologic data set of nearly 900 large earthquakes on active faults in Japan, Greece, New Zealand and the western United States, including California. Faults are cracks in the planet's crust, where giant slabs of earth, known as tectonic plates, meet. The Hayward Fault is slowly creeping in the East Bay and moves around 5 millimeters per year, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But sometimes plates get stuck and pressure builds. Earthquakes occur when plates suddenly slip, producing a jolt of energy that causes the ground to shake. Scientists study ruptured rock layers deep beneath the surface to estimate when large earthquakes occurred in the past. In the new study, the authors collected data stretching back tens of thousands of years. For a region spanning the Great Basin to northern Mexico, this paleoearthquake record stretched back about 80,000 years. For California, the record extended back about 5,000 years. The scientists used these records to calculate how much time typically passes between large surface-rupturing earthquakes around the planet. The average interval was around 100 years for some sites on the San Andreas Fault; it was 2,100 years on the less famous Compton thrust fault beneath the Los Angeles area. About 45% of the faults analyzed for California are running behind schedule for a major earthquake, meaning that more time has passed since the last large quake on a fault than the historical average. In the other regions studied, this statistic ranged from 9% to 18%. The researchers' analysis only included large surface-rupturing earthquakes. It didn't include the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989, which was below the magnitude 7 threshold that the study authors used for quakes on the San Andreas Fault. The authors associated seismic punctuality with slip rates, or how fast the two sides of a fault move past each other. 'Our analysis showed that the faster the faults are moving, the more likely it is that they will appear overdue,' said study author Vasiliki Mouslopoulou, a senior scientist at the National Observatory of Athens, in Greece. In tectonically active California, the San Andreas Fault has a particularly high slip rate. The Pacific and North American plates slide past each other an average of more than inch per year in some spots. 'Faults in California are among the fastest-slipping faults in the world,' Mouslopoulou said, adding that other factors are also probably contributing due to the pattern of chronically late large earthquakes. Previous studies had also shown that seismic activity has been unusually subdued in California, compared with paleorecords. A 2019 study reported that there's been a 100-year hiatus in ground-rupturing earthquakes at a number of paleoseismic sites in California, including on the San Andreas and Hayward faults. The authors of the 2019 study treated large earthquakes at these sites as independent events, akin to flipping pennies and counting how many turn up heads. They calculated a 0.3% probability that there'd be a 100-year hiatus in ground-rupturing quakes across all the California sites. Scientists have suggested that there could be earthquake 'supercycles,' with large quakes occurring in clusters, with less active periods in between. 'There are these longer-term, decadal, century-long ups and downs in the rate of earthquakes,' Jones said. Potentially, California is in a quiet time and large earthquakes are currently less likely. Katherine Scharer, a U.S. Geological Survey research geologist who wasn't part of the new research, commended the authors of the study, explaining that compiling the paleoseismic records was a 'tremendous amount of work' and will enable more scientists to investigate earthquakes. California's relatively sparse big earthquake activity could be connected to the geometry of its faults. While the analyzed faults in California were more or less in line with each other, those in other regions resembled 'a plate of spaghetti,' Scharer said. 'From the study, I think you would say that the main California faults are mechanically different somehow than the averages from these other places,' Glenn Biasi, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey, who wasn't part of the new work. Biasi emphasized that it's impossible to say if California's faults are truly overdue for a big earthquake. 'The faults slip on their own schedule and for their own reasons,' Biasi said. Scientists can't accurately predict large earthquakes in advance but paleoearthquake data could help. The authors of the new study found that, excluding California's recent lack of large earthquakes, faults around the entire planet have generally produced surface-rupturing quakes at intervals expected from paleoearthquake and historic records. Considering such data could improve earthquake forecasts, Mouslopoulou said.
USA Today
5 hours ago
- USA Today
The Big One: Is California 'overdue' for a devastating major earthquake?
The Big One: Is California 'overdue' for a devastating major earthquake? A near-certain disaster looms for California, but there are real things people can do to prepare. Here's what to know about the risks. Show Caption Hide Caption California governor signs emergency declaration after quake California's governor says "we're concerned about damage" from magnitude 7 earthquake." It's the unavoidable series of questions Christine Goulet gets every time she's asked what she does for a living. "When is the next big earthquake coming? Do you know where? When should we get ready?" Goulet, director of the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Science Center in Los Angeles, told USA TODAY. "It's almost without fail once they know I study earthquakes. If I received a dollar every time I'm asked, I'd be rich." Goulet has answers, but she can't predict the future. The ominous truth: The Big One could happen any time, and there's more than one possible "Big One." "It's gonna happen. An earthquake could be in a matter of minutes, the next hour, tomorrow, or in a week from now, we can't predict that precisely at this time. We don't know," Goulet said. "But the point in general is we want and need to prepare for them." 'Swaying back and forth': Magnitude 7 earthquake, aftershocks rock California The most authoritative research on the risk to California was conducted in 2015, but little has changed in the past decade. The state will almost certainly face a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake within the next three decades, the USGS concludes. Some of the most at-risk locations are San Francisco and Los Angeles. California's continuous temblor risk coincides with a huge earthquake brewing along the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. San Francisco Bay Area faces high chances of getting a Big One With nearly four dozen faults in the region stretching from Napa to Monterey, the San Francisco Bay Area has a 72% chance of a major quake registering 6.7 magnitude or higher by 2043, USGS researchers previously estimated. The findings also indicate that the Bay Area has a 51% chance of experiencing an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 and a 20% chance of measuring a magnitude of 7.5 or higher within that time frame. "The earthquake threat is very real," said Richard Allen, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley and the director of the Berkeley Seismology Lab. "It is a real challenge as we have to take that long-term view, but also not to live our lives in fear." In December, thousands in the Bay Area and across Northern California were worried after a magnitude 7 earthquake struck along a sparsely populated northern coast of California, triggering a tsunami warning across a swath of the West Coast stretching from southern Oregon to San Francisco. Traci Grant, 53, a public relations specialist who felt the quake in San Francisco, told USA TODAY at the time she felt her retrofitted apartment move in slow motion. "It just kept going and going," Grant said. "It was scary and a bit exciting at the same time. It was more of a roll than just shake, shake, shake." Fragile environment: A collapsing glacier destroyed a Swiss village. Is climate change to blame? Less than two hours after the initial quake, some areas experienced 13 different aftershocks, ranging from 5.1 to 3.1, the USGS reported. Two hours after that, at least 39 aftershocks of at least a 2.5 magnitude occured in the region, authorities said. No earthquake-related injuries or major damages were reported. Goulet said if the quake had been directly on land, "the impact would've been more devastating." Goulet said December's quake magnitude conjured up the Great San Francisco Earthquake and Fire of 1906. It was a nearly minute-long 7.9 magnitude quake followed by a fire that burned for three days, destroying thousands of buildings. The San Francisco quake killed an estimated 3,000 people and destroyed roughly 80% of the city. It is known as one of the deadliest in U.S. history. Allen also noted the 1868 Hayward Fault earthquake that struck the heart of the Bay Area and killed 30 people. With all the Bay Area faults, Allen said his research shows there's a "two-in-three chance" the Big One could be soon. "We're overdue for a recurrence," Allen said. The last major earthquake in the Bay Area occurred more than a decade ago, when an earthquake rattled Napa Valley in 2014. The 6.0 magnitude quake in Wine Country killed one person and injured 300 people. The incident caused more than $1 billion in damage across Napa and neighboring cities, including Vallejo, California, which took years to rebuild. Then there was the Loma Prieta earthquake that rocked the San Francisco Bay Area in 1989, killing 63 people and injuring nearly 3,800 others. The earthquake disrupted the World Series and damaged the Bay Bridge, Oakland's Cypress Freeway, and swaths of San Francisco. It caused up to $10 billion in damage. "There's this perception that large quakes are frequent, but actually, they are quite rare," Goulet said. "We just don't know when they will happen." Los Angeles is ripe for a Big One as well The Los Angeles area also stands a chance of getting a major earthquake, as there's a 60% chance of a 6.7 magnitude quake within the next 30 years, the USGS said. Additionally, there is also a 46% probability that a 7.0 magnitude earthquake will hit L.A. and a 31% chance a 7.5 magnitude quake will strike during that same period. Allen, the Berkeley seismologist, said Southern California has just as high an earthquake risk compared to its Northern California counterparts. "They face a similar threat, if not higher," Allen said. Goulet added that with Los Angeles and the surrounding areas being so populous (nearly 18.6 million residents according to California Finance Department statistics), there is a high probability for major destruction. She cites the disastrous 6.7 earthquake in Northridge, California, in 1994, which killed 60 people and injured more than 7,000. The devastation also left thousands of buildings and structures collapsed or damaged across Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange and San Bernardino counties. Thousands of residents became homeless as the aftermath caused between $13 billion to $20 billion in damages. "The closer an earthquake is to a large population, the greater the impact will be," Goulet said. Goulet also points to a sequence of earthquakes in 2019 in Ridgecrest, California. A 7.1 magnitude earthquake rattled the city two days after an initial 6.4 magnitude quake. Goulet was among a USGS on-site team researching the first quake when, surprisingly, the second temblor struck. "It was terrifying," Goulet said. "We were there taking measurements and just as we were finishing our work and planning for the next day, the second one occurred about six miles away from us. That was extremely close." Goulet said she remembers reassuring panicked residents that everything would be okay. "That's why we cannot specifically predict earthquakes, when and where they will occur and how big they will be," Goulet added. "But what we can do is collect all of the research that causes earthquakes and the probabilities, which are called probabilistic seismic hazard analysis." Now what?: Federal database that tracked costly weather disasters no longer being updated How to prepare for an earthquake disaster Huge earthquakes have long been an existential crisis for millions along the West Coast, as described in a 2022 USA TODAY article. But experts said there are real things people can do to help them prepare for a major disaster. If you experience an earthquake, Sarah Minson, a research geophysicist with the USGS's Earthquake Science Center in Mountain View, California, advises not to run. "If you feel shaking, you should drop, cover and hold on to protect yourself," Minson said. "Don't go anywhere. Don't run outside. A huge number of the injuries that occur in earthquakes are people stepping on broken glass or trying to run during the shaking and falling down." Allen, the Berkeley seismologist, recommends that households create an earthquake plan, including where they will meet and possibly have a bag or suitcase ready for at least a couple of days. Residents will at least want a flashlight and a way to charge their phone. They should also be prepared to have access to electricity or water cut off for days or weeks. Here are a few practical tips: When trying to use your phone, text – don't call. In a disaster, text messages are more reliable and strain cell networks less. To power your phone, you can cheaply buy a combination weather radio, flashlight and hand-crank charger to keep your cell running even without power for days. A cash reserve is good to have, USGS seismologist Lucy Jones previously said. You'll want to be able to buy things, even if your credit card doesn't work for a time. Simple things like securing bookshelves can save lives. Downloading an early warning app can give you precious moments to protect yourself in the event of a big quake. Buying earthquake insurance can protect homeowners. And taking part in a yearly drill can help remind you about other easy steps you can take to prepare. Contributing: Elizabeth Wiese and Joel Shannon
Yahoo
20 hours ago
- Yahoo
As Fluoride Bans Spread, Who Will Be Hit the Hardest?
A recent study projected that if the entire country were to stop adding fluoride to the water supply, tooth decay would increase by about 7.5%, representing about 25 million more cavities. Credit - Linda Raymond—Getty Images Cavities and dental costs are at risk of skyrocketing as a growing number of states consider banning the use of fluoride in public water—and children from low-income households are likely most vulnerable. In March, Utah became the first state to prohibit adding fluoride to drinking water. A couple months later, Florida followed suit. Several other states are now considering similar bills. In a recent study published in JAMA Health Forum, researchers projected what would happen if the entire country were to stop adding fluoride to the water supply. The potential impact on both people's oral health and their dental bills was substantial: Tooth decay, the study found, would increase by about 7.5%—representing about 25 million more cavities—and the U.S. would face about $9.8 billion in additional costs over five years, including both what families would have to pay out-of-pocket for dental care and what the government would need to pay for public health insurance. And those impacts would disproportionately affect children on public insurance plans or without insurance, the researchers found. Fluoridated water is 'an amazing public health intervention that comes straight from the tap,' says the senior author of the study, Dr. Lisa Simon, an internal medicine physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital, who is also a general dentist. Read More: The Science Behind Fluoride in Drinking Water 'Fluoride works for everyone—it benefits adults, it benefits children,' Simon says. 'But the people who derive the most benefit from it are people who have a harder time accessing routine dental care.' 'Unfortunately, in our country, that is more likely to be children and families who are low-income, who rely on public insurance, or who otherwise face challenges in getting to a dentist,' she says. States' moves to ban the use of fluoride in public drinking water come as the Trump Administration—due in large part to the influence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)—has pushed back against the practice. Kennedy has long blasted water fluoridation, claiming it is linked to arthritis, bone cancer, IQ loss, and more, and signaled that HHS will stop recommending it. The Environmental Protection Agency has said that it is studying the potential health risks of fluoride, and the Food and Drug Administration said it is taking steps to remove prescription ingestible fluoride supplements for children from the market. Some research suggests that fluoride could be associated with lower IQ scores, but only at significantly high levels of exposure—the amount of fluoride that is added to public water, based on federal guidelines, is far lower. And the majority of public health experts, pediatricians, and dentists insist that water fluoridation is a long-standing practice that is both safe and effective at protecting oral health and fighting cavities and tooth decay. Read More: America's Dental Health Is in Trouble 'It's been touted to be one of the most successful or greatest public health initiatives, right up there with vaccinations,' says Dr. Tomitra Latimer, a pediatrician at Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago. U.S. localities started adding fluoride to public water in 1945, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has credited the public health initiative for the 'dramatic decline in cavities' in the country in the years since. According to the CDC, drinking fluoridated water reduces cavities by roughly 25% in both children and adults. Tooth decay, though preventable, is one of the most common childhood diseases. And children of color, children who come from low-income households, children on public insurance plans that limit which providers they can see, and children who live in rural areas and have to travel long distances to access care—all of them are at greater risk of developing cavities, according to Latimer. Children with autism also tend to have a heightened risk of developing cavities because they may struggle with brushing their teeth regularly, she says. While there are alternative sources of fluoride that people can purchase, the cost may be out of reach for many families, Latimer says. That's why, she says, fluoridated water is so critical: It's an easily accessible tool that can help protect the oral health of children who are most vulnerable to cavities. And for generations, it's flowed straight from the tap. Contact us at letters@
