This perfect NSW play shows just how much trouble Queensland are in

The Age

4 hours ago

The first job as the half, as Cleary did to Daly Cherry-Evans, is to target your opposite number and make him commit to you defensively.
You've got the ball in two hands, and you are just eye balling that three-defender and charging at him. You don't give him any other option but to commit to tackling you.
Once you feel him lock on, then your centre runs that really strong line angling from outside in. For NSW in Origin I, it was Stephen Crichton. For me in 2003, it was Matt Gidley.
I call it throwing the bait out with that angled run between the defending half and centre. You throw the double pump – which is your dummy to the centre – and it's the only time I ever premeditated who I was going to pass to. I always knew I'd be going out the back.
Do this quickly enough and the defensive winger is stranded with a two-on-one. Zac Lomax cruised over untouched a few weeks ago. Twenty-two years ago, my fullback Anthony Minichiello used his footwork to do the same.
The key to it all is making the defence think that you as a playmaker are going to run. That you're not even thinking about the pass. The quicker you get across and commit the three-man, the quicker you have his centre – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow or Brent Tate – flying in.
The only way to defend this play is for the winger to be coming up and nailing your fullback, but that's a lot easier said than done. And it's a thing of beauty when you get it right.
How do Queensland stop the best NSW team in years?
As for the task ahead of the Maroons, there's rain around in Perth and when I visited the stadium on Monday night, it was quite a dewy surface – even when it was dry.
So the game plan, then, becomes about getting out of your own end with dummy-half running, short passes and a strong kicking game. That's exactly where NSW dominated Origin I.
Even with the loss of Mitchell Moses in the halves and Mitch Barnett up front, this is still a very stable side. Jarome Luai comes straight in alongside Cleary, who he knows better than any other player in rugby league, while Stefano Utoikamanu has been around Origin camps now for a few years.
This is one of the most well-balanced NSW teams I've seen in a long time, and with an average age of 27 you'd like to think they'll be together for a few series to come.
Queensland, on the other hand, have made four changes, among them dropping their halfback and captain.
Wednesday is a huge night for Tom Dearden with so much extra responsibility and pressure as he trades the No.14 jersey for the No.7.
I think Cam Munster and Kalyn Ponga will end up doing 90 per cent of Queensland's long kicking down their left edge. The big question mark for Dearden is the short kicking game. I really haven't seen him do too much of it for the Cowboys.
His biggest job, though, is to unlock Munster's running game, and in turn Munster has to bring Ponga onto the ball. Naming Cameron as captain is a masterstroke for mine.
We've seen him lift in the Origin arena so many times and when you think about leading his state as Queensland five-eighth, that Maroons No.6 jersey is one of the most famous jerseys in Australian sport. Wally Lewis, Darren Lockyer and Johnathan Thurston are among the greatest players in rugby league's history, and I'm sure Munster understands the responsibility that comes with wearing that jumper.
For Queensland's spine to get any traction and any hope of an upset, it's on Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Mo Fotuaika, Trent Loiero and Harry Grant, and how they defend in the opening 20 minutes.
The Blues forwards dominated this forward battle in Origin I and won the ruck convincingly. If the same thing happens again, Queensland will be in serious trouble.
Again, if it's wet on Wednesday night, Brian To'o and Zac Lomax are so effective coming out of trouble, whereas Queensland need a lot more from their back five.
I'd love to see NSW use their edges – Angus Crichton and Latrell Mitchell on the left, and Liam Martin and Stephen Crichton on the right – once they hit their own 40-metre line when edge defence can be passive.
For Queensland to challenge the Blues, they need to do the same and throw caution to the wind. Munster and Ponga need to take some chances as the Maroons approach halfway, because they can obviously trouble any defence.
But the risk and reward of chancing your arm is such a fine line, particularly if a side is down on confidence.
Taking those risks is so much easier with momentum and I expect Grant will be looking to run at every opportunity given his quiet game a few weeks ago and the need for ruck speed. And again, that's all about the forward battle.
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Gorden Tallis always got into me with his favourite saying, 'forwards win the game, the backs decide by how much'. That's even more important in Origin games.
To do that, Tino needs to take on his great mate Payne Haas like he did a few years ago. Both would be champion front-rowers in any era, and Tino needs to lead Queensland up front.
I think we'll get a different game to Origin I, and we might have quite a spiteful, physical contest because the Maroons are desperate and staring down four straight losses. It could bring Queensland right into the game, but again, that would need to be on their terms, with Fa'asuamaleaui dictating.
However the Maroons go about it, they've got to do something to break up the Blues rhythm. But this is such a quality NSW side, I just can't see it.