Too good to fail: Why the Toronto Raptors can't tank properly
There are two factions of Toronto Raptors fans right now: Those who loved Tuesday night's win at Orlando on Ja'Kobe Walter's absurd three-pointer with 0.5 seconds remaining and those that hated the outcome because of how it impacts the standings.
Well, both sides need to get used to what played out because similar things are going to continue to happen.
OK, we don't expect Walter to hit another one of those step-back miracles, but this Raptors team is going to win a good chunk of the remaining 20 games — even if that's not what the front office, or Raptors Tank Nation wants.
Toronto did everything possible to increase its odds of losing Tuesday. Immanuel Quickley was only given just over two minutes of playing time in the final quarter, while Jakob Poeltl and Scottie Barnes had around four apiece. Canadian AJ Lawson, who has only 64 NBA games over three seasons, played the full quarter (and had a great game, we might add).
The Raptors will continue to rest Poeltl, keep Quickley's workload under control and maybe even cut down on star player Barnes' time, too.
The team's best offensive player, Brandon Ingram, recently acquired from New Orleans, might only play in the final two weeks or so of the season — if at all — as he and the team patiently rehab his ankle injury.
Even so, it's going to be awfully tough for the Raptors to finish the year with the league's fifth- or sixth-worst record, gaining them better odds in the draft lottery.
To recap: Duke's Cooper Flagg is seen as a generational player at the top of this coming draft. Rutgers stars Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey also are regarded as potential all-stars who would go first in many other drafts (ones without a Flagg or Victor Wembanyama at the top), and Baylor's V.J. Edgecombe is a spectacular athlete who is heating up as a shooter, giving vibes similar to Anthony Edwards, Vince Carter and Jason Richardson.
There are other interesting prospects behind that foursome, but many teams will be jockeying hard for a better chance at landing one of those four.
Nobody is catching Washington (who Toronto hosts twice in the next week) or Charlotte or Utah (Friday's opponent) at the bottom. They each will have 52.1% odds of drafting in the Top 4 and 14% odds of winning the right to draft Flagg first.
Those teams have far less talent than the Raptors and the Jazz even improves its odds nightly by often holding standout young centre Walker Kessler out in a bit of a shameless tanking move that the league looks the other way on.
New Orleans, fourth-worst right now, is three games behind the Raptors and, though loaded with some talent, doesn't have as much as Toronto, either.
To make things worse for the Raptors, Philadelphia and Brooklyn are both only 1.5 games up on Toronto right now. Brooklyn overachieved early under former Canadian national team head coach Jordi Fernandez, but badly wants in on the Flagg and Co. sweepstakes — the franchise even traded a boatload of its own picks and pick-swap options last summer to regain control of its 2025 and 2026 first-rounders back from Houston, clearly planning to be as bad as possible this year and next. So, the Nets likely will do everything legally possible to be in that mix.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia — which. along with Phoenix, are the NBA's biggest disappointments this season — has shut down former MVP Joel Embiid and knows winning even one playoff round will be a tall order.
The team owes Oklahoma City its first-round pick unless the pick lands in the Top 6. Meaning you can expect the Sixers to now do everything possible to keep sinking like a stone, even if the odds are better that Oklahoma City will come away with the 7-10 pick next June than the Sixers move up and keep it.
Just last year, the Raptors were in a similar situation, needing to stay in the Top 7 to keep their pick. Toronto dropped to eighth at the lottery and the pick went to San Antonio to complete the Poeltl trade (the Spurs moved it again to Minnesota).
The Raptors came out OK despite losing the pick, nabbing Walter at 19, along with Jonathan Mogbo and Jamal Shead later in the draft, plus prospect Ulrich Chomche and undrafted free agent Jamison Battle.
Right now, Toronto stands fifth-worst in the standings, with a 42.1% shot of drafting in the Top 4. Dropping to sixth- or seventh-worst means 34.8% or 34.5% odds, eighth would be 26.3% and ninth 20.3%.
Toronto probably can't fall further than that, with Chicago four wins ahead and San Antonio at seven.
Our guess is Toronto ends up seventh-worst. New Orleans won the Zion Williamson lottery from that spot in 2019 and Toronto jumped from 7 to 4 in 2021, ending up with Barnes instead of others high on the team's board like Franz Wagner and Jonathan Kuminga.
Raptors report cards: Underwhelming work done so far
Raptors nearly blow it spectacularly again, but survive in Orlando
Atlanta won last year's lottery with just 11.7% odds of moving into the Top 4 (and 2.5% of picking first) and the team with the worst record hasn't won the lottery since the system was adjusted several years ago, but a team with 14% odds of winning (ie. a bottom 3 record) has selected first in each draft from 2020-23.
But past results don't mean anything where lottery probability is concerned (just because Detroit dropped to fifth three years in a row doesn't mean something like that will happen again. Each coin flip, or in this case lottery draw, is an independent event).
The worse Toronto finishes, the better its chances at Flagg or one of the other top prospects. But given the approach of the other teams mentioned and the fact the Raptors have by far the easiest remaining schedule of anybody.
The 20 teams Toronto still has to play have a combined winning percentage of only .358, per Tankathon.com, nobody else faces opponents with a combined winning percentage under .436.
That means that even if the starters get rested for quarters or full games, Toronto still is too good to fail compared to its opponents.
@WolstatSun
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hamilton Spectator
3 hours ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Hockey Canada sex assault trial ends as Crown lays out why each player should be convicted
As the Crown wrapped up its closing arguments Friday at the high-profile trial of five professional hockey players accused of sexual assault, they ended with the complainant's own words from her marathon nine days on the stand. The jury has heard — in graphic detail — her allegations about what took place inside a London, Ont., hotel room in 2018. The jury has heard — in graphic detail — her allegations about what took place inside a London, Ont., hotel room in 2018. 'They were objectifying me, they were literally in there laughing at me,' the woman had testified. 'Literally any one of those men could have stood up and said, 'This isn't right.' And no one did ... They didn't want to think about if I was actually OK, or if I was actually consenting.' After hearing nearly six weeks of evidence and a full week of closing arguments from the five defence teams and the Crown, it's now up to Superior Court Justice Maria Carroccia to decide the guilt or innocence of Alex Formenton, Michael McLeod, Carter Hart, Dillon Dubé and Cal Foote, in a judgment set to be delivered July 24. The prosecutors and defence lawyers shook hands as the trial finally came to an end Friday afternoon at the London, Ont., courthouse, after having originally started in April as a jury trial, but is now a judge-alone case . Carroccia thanked the lawyers for the 'very professional manner' in which they handled the case, 'which we all know has garnered a lot of public attention.' A pair of stills from videos showing the dance floor inside Jack's Bar in London, Ont., on the night of June 18-19, 2018, show the complainant with world junior team members Dillon Dubé, circled left, and Michael McLeod, right. All members of the 2018 Canadian world junior championship team — and most of them playing in the NHL by the time of their arrests last year — the five men stand accused of sexually assaulting the then-20-year-old complainant in a room at the Delta Armouries hotel in London in the early hours of June 19, 2018, while the team was in town to attend the Hockey Canada Foundation's annual Gala & Golf fundraising event. The complainant had met McLeod at Jack's Bar and returned to his room where they had consensual sex, only for multiple men to come in afterward, some prompted by a group chat text from McLeod about a '3 way.' The Crown has alleged that McLeod had intercourse with the complainant a second time in the hotel room's bathroom; that Formenton separately had intercourse with the complainant in the bathroom; that McLeod, Hart and Dubé obtained oral sex from the woman; that Dubé slapped her naked buttocks, and that Foote did the splits over her head and his genitals 'grazed' her face. Prosecutors have argued that the men failed to take reasonable steps to confirm the woman's consent to each act, and that she never made an 'affirmative, voluntary choice.' A screenshot of a group chat involving members of Canada's 2018 world junior championship team. The Crown contends the complainant either didn't voluntarily consent, or her consent was cancelled by the fact she was scared and intimidated to be in a hotel room full of men she didn't know while she was intoxicated as well as naked after having had sex with McLeod. The defence, meanwhile, has argued that the complainant was consenting throughout the night and fabricated her version of events as she tried to make stick her allegations from a $3.5-million sexual assault lawsuit filed against Hockey Canada in 2022, which the sports organization quickly settled for an undisclosed sum. The prosecution further alleges that through the use of a group chat, the players created a false narrative that the complainant was the aggressor and repeatedly demanded to have sex with men in the room — a Crown argument that has faced resistance from the judge. The Crown has also asked the judge to reject some of the testimony of their own player witnesses, something Carroccia described as 'interesting' on Friday. 'Effectively, what you're saying is where it doesn't help the Crown, don't accept it, and where it does help the Crown, accept it,' the judge said. On Friday, the prosecution finished its closing arguments by outlining its case for a conviction against each accused man. 'This is a unique case where, in the Crown's submission, no matter which facts you accept amongst the sometimes challenging puzzle of evidence, there is a clear path to conviction for each of the five accused,' Crown attorney Heather Donkers told Carroccia. 'Mr. McLeod is the one who orchestrated this whole sordid night,' Crown attorney Meaghan Cunningham said Friday. Michael McLeod arrives at court with his lawyers. 'Knowing that (the complainant) had expressed no interest in, or willingness to engage in, sexual activity with anyone other than him, he then begins a campaign to bring men into the room to do that very thing.' McLeod is the only accused man facing two charges — sexual assault and being a party to a sexual assault, for allegedly encouraging his teammates to engage in sexual activity with the complainant when he knew she wasn't consenting. In a 2018 police interview, he told a detective he received oral sex from the complainant and engaged in intercourse with her again before she left the hotel room, but omitted the fact he texted a players' group chat to come to his room for a '3 way,' as well as messaging others directly. The Crown argued Friday that McLeod is one of three men the complainant testified she performed oral sex on while she was on a bedsheet on the ground, although she herself did not identify McLeod as one of the three. The Crown said there were no words spoken between McLeod and the complainant at that time to confirm her consent. The Crown also asked that Carroccia accept that another instance of oral sex happened while McLeod was on the bed. To this, the judge pointed out that court heard testimony about the complainant getting up on the bed and placing McLeod's penis in her mouth without him actually doing anything — evidence that Donkers described as ambiguous and not an indication of consent. 'You can't possibly be saying that a woman who puts a man's penis in her mouth is not communicating that she wishes to,' Carroccia said in response. This led to a back-and-forth between the judge and Crown attorney. 'That is what I'm saying,' Donkers replied. 'Otherwise, there would never be a sexual assault that involves oral sex.' 'That's not true,' Carroccia shot back, saying Donkers misunderstood the point. The judge then put it in the form of a question: 'If a man does nothing and a woman takes his penis and puts it in her mouth, he's committing a sexual assault without asking her if that's OK?' Donkers apologized. She explained the Crown position that doing the act doesn't communicate consent, but agreed that if the judge were to find it was 'one-directional entirely,' that may raise a doubt as to whether that particular allegation had been proven. Donkers did not address at all the allegation involving intercourse, deferring instead to the Crown's brief written arguments. McLeod had told police he had hopped in the shower and the complainant came in with him and they had sex. In court, the woman testified about being tired by that point and that she felt it was a 'continuation' of the other sexual acts in the room — 'I didn't look at it as something I really wanted to do, just felt like one last thing I needed to do to go.' The Crown argues in its written materials that there is no evidence McLeod took any steps to ascertain the complainant's consent. As for being a party to sexual assault, Cunningham argued that McLeod can still be found guilty as long the judge concludes that a sexual assault happened in the room, regardless of whether any specific person is convicted. For example, she referred to the complainant's testimony of multiple men slapping and spitting on her. The whole reason the men knew to come to the room was because of McLeod, Cunningham argued, and he ensured throughout the night that the sexual activity could continue by calming the complainant down when she became upset, or by telling other players in the room not to take out their phones to record anything. McLeod made two cellphone recordings of the complainant; in one, she says 'I'm OK with this,' while in another, she says 'It was all consensual.' Cunningham argued the videos cannot be used as evidence of consent. 'They are also not evidence of any reasonable steps taken to sincerely ascertain valid consent in law,' she said. 'At their highest, they're the kind of token, lip-service, box-checking that the Court of Appeal says is not a reasonable step.' The first video doesn't actually establish to what the complainant was consenting and with whom, Cunningham said, while the second video was taken after the sexual activity and, the Crown highlighted, consent can't be given after the fact. The complainant herself testified she was just saying what she thought the men wanted to hear. The only accused man to testify in his own defence, Hart told the judge that in response to the complainant's demands for intercourse while she was on the ground, he asked for a 'blowie, meaning blowjob,' she said 'yeah' or 'sure,' moved toward him, helped pull down his pants, and performed oral sex about 30 seconds to a minute. Carter Hart outside court with his lawyers. Should the judge accept his account, Donkers argued he should have taken more steps to confirm the complainant's consent, given her obvious vulnerability. He could have taken her aside, asked for her name, her desires, her limitations, or whether this was something she truly wanted. In response to that, Carroccia pointed out the testimony of the Crown's witnesses about the complainant demanding to have sex. 'You just said to me he could have talked to her to find out more about her wants,' Carroccia said, 'but if I accept the evidence from your own witnesses, she was saying what her wants were, correct?' Donkers said that the witnesses testified about the complainant demanding intercourse, not oral sex. While Hart could only recall that instance of oral sex, he later said it was possible it happened again , after the Crown pointed out in cross-examination that McLeod told police he saw Hart receive oral sex twice. The complainant herself testified about giving oral sex to about three men in quick succession, though she never identified Hart to the police, nor that she performed oral sex on him twice. Players Brett Howden and Tyler Steenbergen identified Hart and McLeod as two of the three, while Dubé identified himself to police as the third. Howden testified he believes he saw Hart receive oral sex twice while in the room. 'So I should accept their evidence that Carter Hart probably got oral sex twice, but then find they're mistaken about Dillon Dubé?' the judge asked. 'If they're watching Carter Hart getting oral sex twice, they blink and miss Dillon Dubé? I just don't follow that argument.' Donkers countered that they might not have noticed Dubé because it happened so quickly. Formenton told police in 2018 that he followed the complainant into the bathroom after she had been demanding to have sex with men. There's a lack of evidence as to whether there was any conversation in the bathroom between the two, but Donkers argued that again, no steps were taken to confirm the complainant's consent before they had vaginal intercourse. Alex Formenton and his lawyers. But Carroccia had a question: What to make of Howden's testimony that he recalled that in response to the complainant's demands, Formenton said something along the lines of not wanting to do it front of everybody, and then he followed the complainant into the bathroom. 'Not so ambiguous, is it, in those circumstances?' Carroccia said. 'It's consistent with what she's offering, what she said, if I find that that was the sequence of events.' The judge reminded Donkers that Formenton doesn't have to prove that scenario, but rather the onus is on the Crown 'to disprove that that's what happened.' Donkers said the Crown doesn't have to prove or disprove 'any particular fact and issue beyond a reasonable doubt, what we have to prove is he's guilty of sexual assault.' 'I know that, Ms. Donkers,' the judge replied. While the Crown has argued that the defence has engaged in myth-based reasoning when questioning the complainant's behaviour in the room, Formenton's lawyer Hilary Dudding countered that, in fact, the prosecution was doing that. The Crown's reasoning 'really implies that for a woman to be assertively asking for sex in a group scenario is so inherently bizarre and odd that it requires some explanation other than that woman is consenting,' Dudding said. 'It's stereotypical thinking about what types of sex people like and don't like, what a woman might choose or not choose.' Dubé acknowledged in his 2018 police interview that he briefly received oral sex from the complainant, but omitted the fact that he slapped her naked buttocks. He did admit to slapping the complainant once or twice to a Hockey Canada investigator in 2022, in a statement that was excluded from the trial due to the 'unfair and prejudicial' way it was obtained. The complainant testified that multiple men were slapping her buttocks and that it hurt. The Crown argued that Carroccia should find Dubé slapped her twice — while she was on the ground after giving him oral sex, as witnessed by Steenbergen and on the bed while she was performing oral sex on McLeod, as witnessed by Howden. Dillon Dubé outside court. Dubé told police the oral sex happened in quick succession as the complainant performed on him, Hart, and McLeod — 'No chance for subjective consent,' Donkers said, but even if there was, it was cancelled by the complainant's fear of being in the room. Donkers argued that Dubé only mentioned getting oral sex to police because he 'knew he could try and portray that as consensual, based on comments he says (the complainant) was making about sex,' while he didn't mention the slapping because he knew that went too far as there is 'absolutely zero evidence' that the woman consented to that. 'He could not have had any legitimate belief she had communicated a willingness to be touched on her buttocks, gentle or hard, it does not matter,' Donkers said. 'That belief would have had to come from the myth that just because she had agreed to other things or appeared to agree to other things, that she would be OK being slapped. That is not a defence in law.' It's undisputed that Foote did the splits over the woman, Donkers said, but what's disputed is whether he was naked from the waist down, over which part of her body he did the splits, and whether his genitals touched her face. Court heard that the spits was a 'party trick' Foote often did, including on the dance floor at Jack's earlier that evening in June 2018. Cal Foote, centre, with his lawyers. Steenbergen partially witnessed Foote doing the splits, but couldn't tell if he was clothed below the waist, while Hart was adamant that Foote was wearing clothes and he did not physically touch the complainant, whom Hart said was laughing. The complainant 'viscerally testified' about someone doing the splits 'and having a penis in my face,' Donkers pointed out, although the complainant wasn't able to identify Foote. Given that this was a hotel room full of men 'amped up from a night of drinking' and who knew sexual activity with the woman was the focus in the room, it is 'abundantly clear' that Foote was called to the room to engage with the woman sexually as well, and specifically by doing the naked splits over her body, Donkers argued. 'This extraordinary event of June 19 for them called for extraordinary measures, not just an ordinary party trick they had seen as early as the night before at Jack's,' Donkers said. Cal Foote does the splits at Jack's Bar in London on the night of June 18-19, 2018, while teammates Brett Howden (on the far side of Foote, in white with a lighter-coloured backwards ball cap) and Dillon Dubé (in white on the near side of Foote) clear space on the dance floor. But even if the judge were to accept Hart's version that Foote did the splits while clothed and didn't touch the complainant, the judge should still conclude it was a sexual assault, Donkers said — even though the complainant maintained she was touched. 'It's reasonable to assume that in (Hart's) version of events, she thinks the touching is about to happen and in vulnerable circumstances of a sexual nature,' Donkers said. In the excluded statements from the Hockey Canada 2022 investigation that cannot form part of Carroccia's decision, both Formenton and Dubé said they witnessed Foote doing the splits, with Formenton specifying he wasn't wearing pants. 'So she's laying on the ground parallel between the beds,' Formenton said. 'I remember he takes pants off, top clothes still on, does splits over her upper body.' The players were 'compelled' to sit for an interview with Hockey Canada. But they weren't told Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
Hamilton Spectator
4 hours ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Pargat Singh scores 89 runs as Canada cricketers thump the Cayman Islands
KING CITY - Pargat Singh scored 89 runs and fellow opener Yuvraj Samra added 61 as Canada defeated the Cayman Islands by 126 runs in the NoFrills Quadrangular T20I Cricket Series. Singh belted six sixes and six fours in his 44-ball knock, combining with Samra on a 109-run partnership. Canada won the toss at the Maple Leaf Cricket Ground and elected to bat, finishing at 236 for six in its 20 allotted overs. Harsh Thaker was 53 not out. Rickel Walker's 38 runs led the Caymans, which finished at 110 for six in its 20 overs. The Canadian men, who beat the Bahamas by 107 runs on Thursday, take on Bermuda on Sunday. —- This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 13, 2025
Associated Press
5 hours ago
- Associated Press
3-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer works his way back to rotation with Triple-A rehab start
PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer topped out at 94 mph and threw 56 pitches on Friday night in his first Triple-A rehab outing since the Toronto right-hander suffered inflammation in his right thumb. Scherzer, 40, signed a one-year, $15.5 million deal with the Blue Jays in February. Scherzer left his debut start with the team against Baltimore on March 29 after three innings because of soreness in his right lat muscle. The next day, Toronto put Scherzer on the injured list because of inflammation in his thumb. Scherzer gave up two runs, struck out four and walked none over 4 1/3 innings in an anticipated start for Triple-A Buffalo against the Columbus Clippers. He waved in appreciation to a crowd that gave him a big ovation as he walked off the field. 'It'll be the most watched Triple-A game for a while,' Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. 'Or most uploaded Triple-A game.' Scherzer did allow a 425-foot home run to one of the top 100 prospects in minor league baseball, Columbus left fielder C.J. Kayfus. Schneider said ahead of Toronto's game Friday night in Philadelphia that the box score didn't matter to him. He wanted to make sure Scherzer came out of the game healthy. 'I want to see how Max feels tomorrow,' Schneider said. 'I could care less about the line score. I want to see 60-65 pitches. I want to see the fastball velo is good and he's coming out healthy.' Scherzer has had two cortisone injections this season to relieve inflammation in his thumb. He was transferred to the 60-day injured list last month, but became eligible to return May 29. Scherzer won World Series titles with Washington in 2019 and Texas in 2023. He won his first Cy Young Award after going 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 32 starts for Detroit in 2013. The eight-time All-Star earned consecutive NL Cy Young Awards with Washington in 2016 and 2017. Schneider said Scherzer would likely need one more rehab start before he can join the Blue Jays' rotation. The Blue Jays are in second place behind the Yankees in the AL East. 'The plan right now is to meet us here and probably throw a bullpen and then go back and do another one,' Schneider said. ___ AP MLB:
