Toronto-area new home sales are worse than during the 1990s housing market crash

Hamilton Spectator

3 days ago

New home sales in the Toronto area marked a seventh consecutive month of record all-time lows, eclipsing the 1990s downturn when the housing market crashed.
During the 1990s housing crash — which lasted roughly from 1989 to 1996 — at the bottom of the market there were six consecutive months of record low sales, and sales were around double what they are today, according to the Wednesday report from the Building Industry and Land Development Association's (BILD), which called on the federal government to expand its GST relief to all new home purchasers.
There were 310 new home sales in April, down 72 per cent from April 2024 and 89 per cent below the 10-year average. Historically, new home sales for a typical April in the GTA would be 2,750 units based on the previous 10-year average.
'April 2025 new home sales across the GTA have extended the slowest period of sales on record,' said Edward Jegg, research manager at Altus Group, BILD's source for new home market data.
'Buyers crave predictability and the swirling uncertainty around the impact of possible tariffs is depriving would-be purchasers of the confidence they need to move ahead.'
Broken out by housing type, condos performed the worst with 105 units sold in April, down 80 per cent from April 2024 and 94 per cent below the 10-year average. Condos include units in low, medium and highrise buildings.
There were 205 single-family home sales in April, down 66 per cent from April 2024 and 77 per cent below the 10-year average. Single-family homes include detached, linked and semi-detached houses and townhouses.
The benchmark price for new condos was $1.019 million — down 3.6 per cent over the last 12 months; while the benchmark price for new single-family homes was $1.53 million, down 5.4 per cent over the last 12 months.
Total new home remaining inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous month. The inventory level — the time it would take to sell inventory on the market based on current demand — is 15 months. A healthy market level is around nine to 12 months.
'Because of the time lag between sales, starts and then finally adding new home supply to existing housing stock, the public is insulated at present from the magnitude of what is unfolding in the GTA market,' said Justin Sherwood, senior vice-president of communications, research, and stakeholder relations at BILD.
'The new housing industry is decelerating quickly and a massive supply deficit in the 2027 to 2029 period is taking shape.'
The number of
completed condo units in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area will plummet after 2025
, which is set to achieve the highest number of completions at 30,793, according to real estate research firm Urbanation.
But in 2028 the number of forecasted completions is 9,561.
BILD argues to build more housing, the federal government must expand its GST cut for all home purchasers, not just first-time homebuyers.
On Tuesday, the
Liberals tabled legislation for a GST cut limited to new homes under $1 million
for only first-time buyers (saving up to $50,000), while lowering the rate for first-time buyers of homes that cost between $1 million and $1.5 million.
'Yesterday the federal government tabled its proposed measures to provide GST(HST) relief to first-time new home buyers. Unfortunately, this limitation to first-time buyers only will have a very small impact, as a very few new home buyers are first time buyers. It will not substantially help address affordability, nor will it help significantly stimulate sales and construction,' Sherwood said.