Strong domestic demand, firm steel prices to keep SAIL in focus
After two lacklustre quarters, Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) reported a rebound in performance in the March quarter (Q4FY25), driven by lower raw material costs and improved sales volumes—even as selling prices remained under pressure.
SAIL's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) stood at ₹3,500 crore in Q4FY25, slightly higher on a year-on-year basis. This marks a turnaround after a 5% decline in Q3 and a steep 40% drop in Q2.
The blended realization for the quarter fell 10% from a year earlier to ₹55,000 per tonne. However, the company managed to offset this decline with a 9% rise in sales volumes (excluding volumes sold on behalf of NMDC Steel) and a drop in coking coal prices by about ₹1,500 per tonne.
The company sold 0.36 million tonnes (mt) of steel on behalf of NMDC Steel under an agreement that provides for a fixed trading margin.
Also read: Govt may harness public sector undertakings to drive green steel consumption
Improved margins
The company's Ebitda per tonne (adjusted for NMDC volumes) improved to ₹7,000 in Q4, up from ₹4,550 in Q3FY25, though lower than ₹7,620 reported in Q4FY24.
Domestic steel prices have been under pressure due to a rise in imports, particularly flat products, which make up 95% of the imported steel. However, prices have started recovering—rising by about ₹3,000 per tonne—after the imposition of a safeguard duty on imports in April. Prices are expected to improve further after the monsoon, according to the company.
The global outlook also offers some relief, with the World Steel Association projecting a rebound in consumption in 2025 after three years of decline.
For FY25, SAIL's revenue dropped 3% to ₹1.02 trillion due to lower realizations, even though sales volumes rose. Ebitda for the full year declined 4% to ₹10,630 crore.
The company has set a sales volume target of 19.2 mt for FY26, up from 17.9 mt in FY25.
Also read: JSW-Bhushan case: Time to rewrite India's insolvency code?
Operational efficiencies helped SAIL save ₹650 crore in FY25 through measures like reduced fuel consumption and higher throughput at efficient plants. Employee cost also declined during the year, despite a one-off adjustment in Q4, with a reduction in manpower and management expects savings of ₹400-500 crore in FY26.
The company's plant-wise earnings reflect the disparity in steel product categories. While Ebit (earnings before interest and taxes) at Bokaro and Rourkela plants—focused on flat products—dropped 66%, Ebit at long-product-focused IISCO and Bhilai plants rose 25%.
Capacity expansion plans
SAIL aims to increase its total steelmaking capacity to 35 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by FY31, up from the current 20 mtpa. The first phase of expansion, involving debottlenecking to add 2–3 mtpa, is expected by FY28.
Capital expenditure (capex) is budgeted at ₹7,500 crore for FY26, up from ₹6,400 crore in FY25. Peak annual capex could reach ₹10,000 crore in FY28-29, which may put temporary pressure on the balance sheet—similar to the strain seen during the last expansion cycle between 2010 and 2020.
SAIL shares have gained about 15% so far in 2025, buoyed by signs of a steel market recovery. Analysts say that trends in steel pricing and volumes will be key to determining future performance. Nuvama Institutional Equities expects the company to deliver 21% CAGR Ebitda growth over FY25–27, supported by stronger prices and lower coking coal costs.
Also read: Steel prices climb as 'safeguard' duty looms, user industries warn of cost inflation
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After two lacklustre quarters, Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) reported a rebound in performance in the March quarter (Q4FY25), driven by lower raw material costs and improved sales volumes—even as selling prices remained under pressure. SAIL's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) stood at ₹3,500 crore in Q4FY25, slightly higher on a year-on-year basis. This marks a turnaround after a 5% decline in Q3 and a steep 40% drop in Q2. The blended realization for the quarter fell 10% from a year earlier to ₹55,000 per tonne. However, the company managed to offset this decline with a 9% rise in sales volumes (excluding volumes sold on behalf of NMDC Steel) and a drop in coking coal prices by about ₹1,500 per tonne. The company sold 0.36 million tonnes (mt) of steel on behalf of NMDC Steel under an agreement that provides for a fixed trading margin. Also read: Govt may harness public sector undertakings to drive green steel consumption Improved margins The company's Ebitda per tonne (adjusted for NMDC volumes) improved to ₹7,000 in Q4, up from ₹4,550 in Q3FY25, though lower than ₹7,620 reported in Q4FY24. Domestic steel prices have been under pressure due to a rise in imports, particularly flat products, which make up 95% of the imported steel. However, prices have started recovering—rising by about ₹3,000 per tonne—after the imposition of a safeguard duty on imports in April. Prices are expected to improve further after the monsoon, according to the company. The global outlook also offers some relief, with the World Steel Association projecting a rebound in consumption in 2025 after three years of decline. For FY25, SAIL's revenue dropped 3% to ₹1.02 trillion due to lower realizations, even though sales volumes rose. Ebitda for the full year declined 4% to ₹10,630 crore. The company has set a sales volume target of 19.2 mt for FY26, up from 17.9 mt in FY25. Also read: JSW-Bhushan case: Time to rewrite India's insolvency code? Operational efficiencies helped SAIL save ₹650 crore in FY25 through measures like reduced fuel consumption and higher throughput at efficient plants. Employee cost also declined during the year, despite a one-off adjustment in Q4, with a reduction in manpower and management expects savings of ₹400-500 crore in FY26. The company's plant-wise earnings reflect the disparity in steel product categories. While Ebit (earnings before interest and taxes) at Bokaro and Rourkela plants—focused on flat products—dropped 66%, Ebit at long-product-focused IISCO and Bhilai plants rose 25%. Capacity expansion plans SAIL aims to increase its total steelmaking capacity to 35 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by FY31, up from the current 20 mtpa. The first phase of expansion, involving debottlenecking to add 2–3 mtpa, is expected by FY28. Capital expenditure (capex) is budgeted at ₹7,500 crore for FY26, up from ₹6,400 crore in FY25. Peak annual capex could reach ₹10,000 crore in FY28-29, which may put temporary pressure on the balance sheet—similar to the strain seen during the last expansion cycle between 2010 and 2020. SAIL shares have gained about 15% so far in 2025, buoyed by signs of a steel market recovery. Analysts say that trends in steel pricing and volumes will be key to determining future performance. Nuvama Institutional Equities expects the company to deliver 21% CAGR Ebitda growth over FY25–27, supported by stronger prices and lower coking coal costs. Also read: Steel prices climb as 'safeguard' duty looms, user industries warn of cost inflation
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