Gov. Cox considers drought order for parts of Utah; Lake Powell faces below-normal runoff
"(It was) a pretty normal year for most of the state. ... However, I will say it was not a great year for all of the state," he said during his monthly news conference with Utah reporters.
"Southern Utah, especially southwestern Utah, was well below average, and they are seeing some elevated drought conditions there," Cox continued. "I would say, yes, there is a very real possibility — in fact, we're working on it right now — on an emergency declaration for a few counties in the southwest corner of our state."
Cox can issue an emergency declaration at any time, but it can only last 30 days without additional approval from the Utah Legislature. He hinted that the order could be issued within the next few weeks, as legislators will be back at Capitol Hill for a session in May.
The governor made those remarks as a late-season storm delivered a much-needed jolt to the state, but it might be too late to make much of a difference in southern Utah.
Most of Washington County remains in extreme drought, which extends into parts of Iron County, as well, per a U.S. Drought Monitor report released earlier in the day. Parts of those counties not in extreme drought remain in severe drought, which covers over one-third of the state. Other parts of western Utah, as well as parts of southeast Utah, are also among the driest in the state.
Those areas also didn't fare well when it came to snowpack collection, which accounts for about 95% of the state's water supply. Several basins ended meteorological winter on track for a record-low collection, and while late-season storms prevented that from happening, Utah's two southwesternmost basins peaked at 48% and 53% of their median averages, while four others nearby ranged from 65% to 79% of average.
Dry soil moisture levels alone can hinder snowmelt runoff efficiency, as more water in the snow goes toward recharging groundwater than the streams, creeks and rivers that feed Utah's lakes and reservoirs. But a poor snowpack on top of dry soil is about the worst-case scenario, according to Jordan Clayton, a hydrologist for the Conservation Service and supervisor of the Utah Snow Survey.
"That's a recipe for not getting much runoff. We are very concerned about that," he told KSL.com last week, pointing to those regions of the state.
It's why streamflow outlooks aren't promising in the region, especially for large-scale reservoirs like Lake Powell.
The country's second-largest reservoir remains at just 33% capacity, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation officials don't expect it to gain as much as it did the past two years. They released an update this month saying that a runoff that's 71% of average is the "most probable" outcome this spring. Should that be the case, Lake Powell may only gain about 12 feet in additional elevation, peaking at about 3,570 feet elevation — about 17 feet below last year's high point.
Cox said the state is "always worried" about the Colorado River and Lake Powell, but he's more concerned about this winter's double-whammy in southwest Utah. He said it will likely hurt agricultural operations and some other industries, which is why his office is working with local officials and emergency agencies on the potential order.
It's unclear what will be included in the order, but he issued multiple orders when a severe drought gripped the state from mid-2020 through early 2023. The orders called on conservation efforts while opening up relief for those impacted most by the conditions.
Cox lauded many of the changes that governments have made in terms of water usage since then, especially in places like Washington County.
"They've gotten really serious about it after talking about it for years, and pleaded and asked," he said. "They've taken that on in big ways. So they're better prepared to take on a rough year like the one they're facing right now."
As for northern Utah's relatively average snowpack, the governor said there might be some "localized" issues when it comes to snowmelt flooding, which isn't uncommon. He doesn't expect any major risks, as was the case with the record snowpack collection two years ago.
Contributing: Bridger Beal-Cvetko
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