2025 hurricane season could see degraded forecasts because of weather service cuts
South Florida plunges deeper into the 2025 hurricane season with its National Weather Service office in Miami down five meteorologists, a deficit that gives it the highest vacancy rate among Florida's five weather forecasting offices.
According to the National Weather Service Employees Organization, Key West has four meteorologist positions that are unfilled. Tallahassee is down three. Melbourne and Tampa have two empty seats each.
The shortages have some experts worried that public services and forecasts may suffer this hurricane season, which is expected to again have above-normal activity.
'They won't have as much time to monitor what is going on at the local level, especially with short-fused warnings,' said James Franklin, former branch chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit at the National Hurricane Center about the local forecast offices. 'When they are short-staffed, two people have to do the job of three.'
While the National Hurricane Center forecasts the big picture for tropical cyclones — path, strength and size — the weather forecasting offices focus on the details for local communities.
And those details are critical, such as when Hurricane Milton shredded the state with 45 tornadoes in October, leaving six people dead in the Spanish Lakes Country Club Village mobile-home community in Fort Pierce. The Miami NWS office forecasts for seven counties, including Palm Beach County.
The meteorologists in weather forecasting offices are also responsible for working directly with county officials, translating the forecasts into the impacts and hazards that could be felt by individual communities.
Sometimes they embed in emergency operations centers to better help local officials decide when and who to evacuate as a storm approaches.
2025 hurricane season : New forecast calls for above normal season but questions remain
'It's not so much that the National Hurricane Center won't be able to get a forecast out, they will, but the local services will be degraded,' Franklin said.
It's unclear yet how many of the vacancies at the nation's 122 local forecast offices are a direct result of the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency budget cuts.
Tom Fahy, legislative director of the National Weather Service Employees Organization, said his office is working now to parse out that information from the 600 positions that were lost across the country this year.
About half of those were voluntary early retirements, while 108 were fired probationary employees. The remainder were voluntary deferred resignations, Fahy said.
The NWS has since announced it wants to hire 126 people, and it's asking for current employees to transfer to offices in need of critical positions including meteorologists, science and operations officers and warning-coordination meteorologists.
Miami and Key West are on that list as offices in need.
'The National Weather Service is doing their very level best to fill the critical vacancies ASAP, but when that will happen is to be determined,' Fahy said. 'We have hurricane season, but in California wildfire season has started, so we have two different weather disasters.'
Ken Graham, director of the NWS, said in May that local offices will get additional resources where needed during emergencies.
'Every warning is going to go out,' Graham said.
Although Graham, and the U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, have said that the National Hurricane Center is fully staffed, Fahy said there are five openings at the Miami-based hurricane center.
Those include a hurricane specialist, who forecasts the track, intensity and size of storms, a marine forecaster, and positions that maintain and update operational software.
More: Hurricane hunters save lives, but NOAA plane breakdowns, staffing shortages put them at risk
Franklin said it's typical for there to be a small number of vacancies at any given time at the NHC, and that while it is not fully staffed, 'they are reasonably well staffed.'
'I don't think that is true with the weather forecast offices,' Franklin said.
Fahy said Miami's NWS office has a 38% vacancy rate among its meteorologists. Key West was second highest at 30%.
There are six offices nationwide — none in Florida — that have shuttered their typical 24-hour operations between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m., Fahy said.
Others have reduced their twice-daily weather balloon launches, which are important for measuring temperature, humidity and pressure in the atmosphere, as well as tracking wind speed and direction.
The Washington Post previously reported that since March 20, 17% of balloon launches nationwide that should have occurred didn't because of staffing losses.
A weather balloon that fails to launch in the Great Plains may not seem like it could hinder hurricane forecasts, but the lack of information on upper air movements — steering winds — can leave blind spots.
'I think it's safe to say that because of the reduction in weather balloon launches, that some forecasts this summer for hurricanes will be degraded,' Franklin said. 'The problem is it will be difficult to predict when those degradations might occur, how large they might be, and even after the fact, we might not now whether a particular forecast is bad because some launches didn't happen.'
Jeff Masters, a meteorologist who writes for Yale Climate Connections, said he believes the loss of balloon data could mean the hurricane forecast cone will be too small this season, 'giving people overconfidence in the accuracy of the hurricane forecasts.'
'Such overconfidence can result in delayed evacuation decisions and failure to take adequate measures to protect lives and property,' Masters said.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Season 2025 forecasts could be hurt by Trump budget cuts
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Newsweek
18 minutes ago
- Newsweek
One State Emerges From Drought for First Time in Six Years
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Record rainfall earlier this spring has lifted Oklahoma fully out of drought conditions for the first time in nearly six years. With showers and thunderstorms expected over the next week for much of the state, National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Jennifer Thompson told Newsweek it will likely remain wetter than normal across the state for the foreseeable future. Why It Matters The abnormally wet spring saw climate sites across the state document record-breaking rainfall, with Oklahoma City experiencing its highest April rain total ever recorded. The wet pattern is continuing on Friday, with heavy rainfall posing myriad dangers to people across the state. As of Friday afternoon, multiple flood watches have been issued. Although more rain might further benefit Oklahoma's emergence from drought, NWS meteorologists warned that severe storms were possible Friday night. A stock photo of rainfall. A stock photo of rainfall. xphotoz/Getty What To Know On Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor Map released its weekly update, which included figures showing Oklahoma breaking its drought streak that began in July 2019. Although Oklahoma by far isn't the state hardest hit by drought, it has struggled with persistent moderate drought since summer 2019. Three months ago, more than a quarter of the state was classified as battling moderate drought. In that condition, Oklahoma noted difficulties such as hindered lake recreation; poor deer reproduction; falling water levels in seasonal creek and rain-fed ponds; reduced yield for summer crops; and an increased risk of wildfires. There is no drought reported across Oklahoma at the moment, although nearly 10 percent of the state is considered abnormally dry. Many of the challenges accompanying moderate drought conditions are lifted with abnormally dry conditions, although some crops might still be stressed and pond levels could be low. Although the Sooner State is now recovered from its years of drought, other U.S. states are still facing challenges. Exceptional drought, the most severe classification from the U.S. Drought Monitor, is in place for parts of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada, with even more widespread documentation of severe and extreme drought. What People Are Saying A flood watch issued by the Norman, Oklahoma, NWS office: "Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks." Drought Monitor Map said in a summary: "Additional rainfall this past week ended drought across Oklahoma and the Sooner State became drought-free for the first time since July 2019. The Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley are also drought-free with 30 to 90-day precipitation averaging above normal." What Happens Next Most flood watches expire by Saturday afternoon. Oklahoma is anticipating slightly above normal precipitation in the immediate future, according to a six- to 10-day precipitation outlook published by the NWS Climate Prediction Center.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Update: Flash flood warning affecting 3 Massachusetts counties until Friday evening triggered by thunderstorms
On Friday at 5:05 p.m. an updated flash flood warning was issued by the National Weather Service in effect until 8:15 p.m. for Franklin, Hampshire and Worcester counties. "At 5:05 p.m., Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly," states the weather service. "Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas." Locations impacted by the warning include Amherst, Greenfield, Orange, Deerfield, Belchertown, Athol, Winchendon, Montague, Templeton, Hadley, Sunderland, Hatfield, Northfield, Bernardston, Conway, Leverett, Erving, Shutesbury, Phillipston and Gill. The weather service states, "Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles." Flash flood warning: Take action! A flash flood warning is issued when a flash flood is imminent or occurring. If you are in a flood-prone area, move immediately to high ground. A flash flood is a sudden violent flood that can take from minutes to hours to develop. It is even possible to experience a flash flood in areas not immediately receiving rain. Flood warning: Take action! A flood warning is declared when flooding is on the verge of happening or is already underway. Flood advisory: Be aware: A flood advisory is released when flooding is not expected to reach a severity level necessitating a warning. Nonetheless, it can still cause considerable inconvenience and, without exercising caution, potentially lead to situations that threaten life and/or property. Flood watch: Be prepared: A flood watch is issued when conditions are favorable for flooding. It doesn't guarantee that flooding will occur, but it signifies that the possibility exists. In flood-prone regions or while camping in low-lying areas, understanding and following the weather service flood safety guidelines can be a lifesaver: Move to higher ground: If you reside in a flood-prone region or are camping in low-lying terrain, the first step to safety is relocating to higher ground. Follow evacuation orders: If local authorities issue an evacuation order, heed it promptly. Prior to leaving, secure your home by locking it. Disconnect utilities and appliances: If time permits, disconnect your utilities and appliances. This precaution minimizes electrical hazards during flooding. Steer clear of flooded basements and submerged areas: Avoid basements or rooms submerged in water with electrical outlets or cords. Preventing electrical accidents is crucial. Swift evacuation for your safety: If you notice sparks or hear buzzing, crackling, snapping, or popping sounds, evacuate without delay. Do not enter water that may carry an electrical charge. Refrain from walking in floodwaters: Never attempt to walk through floodwaters. Even just 6 inches of swiftly moving water can forcefully knock you off your feet. Seek higher ground when trapped: In the event you become trapped by moving water, make your way to the highest point available and contact emergency services by calling 911. During periods of heavy rainfall, especially in low-lying and flood-prone areas, the risk of flooding escalates. Remember this crucial advice: never attempt to drive through water on the road, even if it appears shallow. According to the weather service, as little as 12 inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away most vehicles. Prioritize your safety by staying informed and prepared. Rain can turn roads into hazards. Stay informed and follow these tips from the weather service to ensure safety during heavy rainfall: Beware of swollen waterways: During heavy rain, avoid parking or walking near culverts or drainage ditches, where swift-moving water can pose a serious risk. Maintain safe driving distances: Adhere to the two-second rule for maintaining a safe following distance behind the vehicle in front of you. In heavy rain, allow an additional two seconds of distance to compensate for reduced traction and braking effectiveness. Reduce speed and drive cautiously: On wet roads, slowing down is paramount. Gradually ease off the accelerator and avoid abrupt braking to prevent skidding. Choose your lane wisely: Stick to the middle lanes on multi-lane roads to minimize the risk of hydroplaning, as water tends to accumulate in outer lanes. Prioritize visibility: Enhance your visibility in heavy rain by turning on your headlights. Watch out for vehicles in blind spots, as rain-smeared windows can obscure them. Watch out for slippery roads: The first half-hour of rain is when roads are slickest due to a mix of rain, grime, and oil. Exercise heightened caution during this period. Keep a safe distance from large vehicles: Large trucks and buses can reduce your visibility with tire spray. Avoid tailgating and pass them swiftly and safely. Mind your windshield wipers: Overloaded wiper blades can hinder visibility. If rain severely limits your sight, pull over and wait for conditions to improve. Seek refuge at rest areas or protected spots. If the roadside is your only option, pull off as far as possible, preferably past the end of a guard rail, and wait until the storm passes. Keep your headlights on and turn on emergency flashers to alert other drivers of your position. By following these safety measures, you can significantly reduce risks and ensure your well-being when heavy rain pours down. Stay informed about weather conditions and heed advice from local authorities to make your journey safe and sound. Advance Local Weather Alerts is a service provided by United Robots, which uses machine learning to compile the latest data from the National Weather Service. Flash flood warning: Take action! A flash flood warning is issued when a flash flood is imminent or occurring. If you are in a flood-prone area, move immediately to high ground. A flash flood is a sudden violent flood that can take from minutes to hours to develop. It is even possible to experience a flash flood in areas not immediately receiving rain. Flood warning: Take action! A flood warning is declared when flooding is on the verge of happening or is already underway. Flood advisory: Be aware: A flood advisory is released when flooding is not expected to reach a severity level necessitating a warning. Nonetheless, it can still cause considerable inconvenience and, without exercising caution, potentially lead to situations that threaten life and/or property. Flood watch: Be prepared: A flood watch is issued when conditions are favorable for flooding. It doesn't guarantee that flooding will occur, but it signifies that the possibility exists. In flood-prone regions or while camping in low-lying areas, understanding and following the weather service flood safety guidelines can be a lifesaver: Move to higher ground: If you reside in a flood-prone region or are camping in low-lying terrain, the first step to safety is relocating to higher ground. Follow evacuation orders: If local authorities issue an evacuation order, heed it promptly. Prior to leaving, secure your home by locking it. Disconnect utilities and appliances: If time permits, disconnect your utilities and appliances. This precaution minimizes electrical hazards during flooding. Steer clear of flooded basements and submerged areas: Avoid basements or rooms submerged in water with electrical outlets or cords. Preventing electrical accidents is crucial. Swift evacuation for your safety: If you notice sparks or hear buzzing, crackling, snapping, or popping sounds, evacuate without delay. Do not enter water that may carry an electrical charge. Refrain from walking in floodwaters: Never attempt to walk through floodwaters. Even just 6 inches of swiftly moving water can forcefully knock you off your feet. Seek higher ground when trapped: In the event you become trapped by moving water, make your way to the highest point available and contact emergency services by calling 911. During periods of heavy rainfall, especially in low-lying and flood-prone areas, the risk of flooding escalates. Remember this crucial advice: never attempt to drive through water on the road, even if it appears shallow. According to the weather service, as little as 12 inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away most vehicles. Prioritize your safety by staying informed and prepared. Rain can turn roads into hazards. Stay informed and follow these tips from the weather service to ensure safety during heavy rainfall: Beware of swollen waterways: During heavy rain, avoid parking or walking near culverts or drainage ditches, where swift-moving water can pose a serious risk. Maintain safe driving distances: Adhere to the two-second rule for maintaining a safe following distance behind the vehicle in front of you. In heavy rain, allow an additional two seconds of distance to compensate for reduced traction and braking effectiveness. Reduce speed and drive cautiously: On wet roads, slowing down is paramount. Gradually ease off the accelerator and avoid abrupt braking to prevent skidding. Choose your lane wisely: Stick to the middle lanes on multi-lane roads to minimize the risk of hydroplaning, as water tends to accumulate in outer lanes. Prioritize visibility: Enhance your visibility in heavy rain by turning on your headlights. Watch out for vehicles in blind spots, as rain-smeared windows can obscure them. Watch out for slippery roads: The first half-hour of rain is when roads are slickest due to a mix of rain, grime, and oil. Exercise heightened caution during this period. Keep a safe distance from large vehicles: Large trucks and buses can reduce your visibility with tire spray. Avoid tailgating and pass them swiftly and safely. Mind your windshield wipers: Overloaded wiper blades can hinder visibility. If rain severely limits your sight, pull over and wait for conditions to improve. Seek refuge at rest areas or protected spots. If the roadside is your only option, pull off as far as possible, preferably past the end of a guard rail, and wait until the storm passes. Keep your headlights on and turn on emergency flashers to alert other drivers of your position. By following these safety measures, you can significantly reduce risks and ensure your well-being when heavy rain pours down. Stay informed about weather conditions and heed advice from local authorities to make your journey safe and sound. Advance Local Weather Alerts is a service provided by United Robots, which uses machine learning to compile the latest data from the National Weather Service. Read the original article on MassLive.
CBS News
2 hours ago
- CBS News
Heavy rains bring flash flooding to Pittsburgh area
Flash flooding has been reported across the Pittsburgh area on Friday. A vehicle was nearly completely submerged in flood waters on the Tri-Boro Expressway in Monroville on June 6, 2025. Credit: KDKA Amid the Friday rush hour, heavy rains have led to flooding in multiple communities in Allegheny County, including Monroeville and Rankin. A vehicle was nearly completely submerged in flood waters on the Tri-Boro Expressway in Monroville after heaving rains pounded the area. Police are at the scene. In Turtle Creek, The Wolvarena was partially flooded by the rains. In Turtle Creek, The Wolvarena was partially flooded by rain on June 6, 2025. Credit: Robin Preisach Gehry The National Weather Service also said on social media that there were "multiple reports" of flooded roads and vehicles being stranded in floodwaters near Pitcairn. Flash flooding alerts in Pittsburgh area Parts of Allegheny County are under flash flood warnings on Friday evening. The National Weather Service said the warnings will last until at least 8 p.m. This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
