A reset in West Asia, a ‘de-escalation' for the world

The Hindu

7 hours ago

West Asia has been reset with the bombing of Iran by Israel and the United States. It has been done with the tacit or open approval of almost all countries in the region and beyond. The Europeans have been their usual contradictory noisy self, but made no difference to what is unfolding in West Asia. Even Russia and China, which signed, with much fanfare, Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreements with Iran in January 2025 and March 2021 respectively, were silent spectators. It is not that all these countries were helpless. They made a conscious decision not to interfere when Iran and its proxies are being dismantled in the region.
The reality now
Now with the so-called Iranian nuclear threat being rendered ineffective, West Asia is faced with a sole dominant nuclear power — Israel. The region has 40,000 American troops stationed on its soil in addition to numerous air and sea assets. They will make sure that there is no more military challenge to Israel. West Asia will now live with this reality.
Initially, the Gulf and other countries of West Asia feared, probably rightly, Iran and its proxies as much as the Israelis. The Iranian strategic and military depth in the region, when seen through the prism of its political ideology, made it the predominant threat in the region. In some ways, the presence of an aggressive Iran made the Gulf countries soft pedal, and even make compromises on many other issues which the region has been plagued with, including Palestine. They needed Israel and the U.S. to balance their vulnerability vis-à-vis Iran, which only encouraged Israel to go all the way out to dismantle the Iranian proxies, both state and non-state actors, in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. The threat has receded except perhaps for the Houthis in Yemen and the militias in Iraq. In the meantime, the Gulf countries have been busy building bridges with the U.S. administration and waiting to operationalise Abraham Accords, which normalised their relations with Israel. They have made U.S. President Donald Trump happy by doling out goodies. But, with the cutting down of Iran to size in West Asia, do they relish the prospect of an Israel without any checks? Probably not. Can they do something at least now?
Iran has hit back. Its missiles have targeted U.S. military bases in Qatar — the biggest U.S. base in West Asia with 10,000 personnel, and in Iraq. Iran claimed proportional retaliation in that the number of missiles used was equal to the number of bombs the U.S. used to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. This represented a dangerous escalation, violating the territorial integrity of one of its own 'brotherly' countries, Qatar, and with the situation threatening to spiral out of control. The retaliation was not entirely unexpected.
For Iran's leadership, it is an existential crisis. For the Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the leadership, surrendering or keeping quiet in the face of these attacks are not options if they must survive politically.
They know that the end game is regime change to dismantle their theological foundation and political ideology — an ideology which threatens everyone in the region. To that extent, the war with Iran is still a work-in-progress for Israel and the U.S. They will not stop until they do a 'Syria' on Iran. But there is no alternate 'regime' waiting to take their place. Consequently, for their own good, the Gulf states need to step up now to prevent an Iraq- or a Libya-like collapse, which will destabilise everyone in the region. Destabilising regimes in the region has only given a fillip to Islamic fundamentalism and to terrorist organisations such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
As one spat ends another crisis begins
The dramatic announcement by the U.S. of an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Iran is a surprising voice of reason, at a time when reason has become the biggest casualty in West Asia. After retaliation for the U.S. bombing and proving to the world — and more importantly to its people — that it will not be cowed down, the ceasefire call gives Iran a way out to back down. Let us not forget that Israel too has been hit hard though the western media has played it down. The fact that Iran was ready to hit American bases in the Gulf would have weighed on the U.S. to pressure Israel to stop.
It is also a wakeup call for the Gulf leadership that they are not immune. Hopefully, this should stop Iran from making good on other threats such as closing the Strait of Hormuz or exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The focus shifts back to the nuclear deal, where both the U.S. and Iran may well be in a mood to find a solution. It is time for the Gulf states to support this process, even if it is late, to save the region from further conflagration.
While this spat sputters to an end, the next crisis in West Asia is in the making. With the long-cherished dream of Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu realised under Mr. Trump — to take out Iran's nuclear programme — his domestic political fortunes have been revived dramatically. There are hardly any obstacles now for him to realise his 'Eretz Israel' dream — the promised land from the Jordan river to the Mediterranean Sea. This is the New Middle East map which Mr. Netanyahu waved before the UN General Assembly to 193-member states — a map without Gaza or the West Bank. Israeli plans to annex them very soon and certainly before the U.S. presidential elections in 2026. If his main ultra-right coalition ministerial colleagues Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are to be believed, and there is no reason why they should not be, this annexation will happen this year. All state and non-state actors, which can potentially oppose the move, have been defeated or chastised. The U.S. is also in sync with Mr. Netanyahu in his ambitions. The question will then boil down to these: After its annexation of Palestinian territories, will Israel continue to be an apartheid state by choice to preserve its Jewishness, where the Palestinians will not enjoy equal citizenship and remain second class citizens? Or it will become a genuine democracy by giving the Palestinians equal rights as its Jewish citizens. History indicates that it will be the first.
While the opposition to this annexation should come from countries within the region, the Gulf leadership has almost given up pushing Israel for a Palestinian state or even stopping the Gaza war as the price to pay for regional stability and integration with Israel and the outside world, their noisy protestations within and outside the UN notwithstanding. However, if they think that peace and security will be restored by annexing Palestinian territories or even status quo of occupation retained (56,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, those displaced, face daily threats, starvation and displacement, while people in the West Bank are driven out of their homes to make way for Jewish settlers), they may be forced to rethink their strategy.
India's stand
Expectedly, India has neither made pronouncements on the Israeli preemptive strikes on Iran nor taken an active role — just as it has not in other wars elsewhere. Israel was one of few countries to stand by India during Operation Sindoor. However, India's joint initiatives with Iran, including Chabahar port connectivity, are equally important. India's stakes in the region are high and it is doing all it can to minimise the impact. India has, tongue in cheek, called for a 'de-escalation', giving the same advice to warring parties which it received during Operation Sindoor from many parts of the world, asking India and Pakistan to de-escalate. It was a case of equating the aggressor and the aggressed. It matters no more to the world, whether one is right or wrong or whether international law or territorial integrity have been violated, as long as the warring sides 'de-escalate'.
T.S. Tirumurti is former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs in-charge, inter alia, of West Asia and former Representative of India to the Palestinian Authority in Gaza