Analysis-Argentine leader Milei licking his chops ahead of October elections
By Nicolás Misculin
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentina's firebrand right-wing President Javier Milei has largely tamed runaway inflation with a ruthless austerity plan and he aims to solidify power when his party and its allies take on a divided opposition in legislative elections in October.
The trash-tweeting, shaggy-haired economist, who famously handed tech billionaire Elon Musk a chainsaw at an event in Washington earlier this year, has overseen a steady dollar-peso peg but relies on legislative allies in Congress to pass his agenda. Many of the changes he has implemented have been through presidential decrees, like his ideological ally, U.S. President Donald Trump, who called Milei his favorite president.
Voters will choose about half the seats in the lower chamber of Argentina's Congress and a third of the upper Senate on October 26. A big victory would not give Milei a legislative majority, but it would offer him leverage to make deals to sell off government-owned companies, cut social spending, change tax and labor policy and embrace social conservatism.
That plan is in stark contrast to the program of the parties that are the ideological descendants of General Juan Peron, who ruled the country from 1946-1955 and 1973-1974, and his wife Evita. Their governments nationalized industries, unveiled pro-labor policies and rolled out social programs including free health care.
The economic stability spurred by Milei, who took power in late 2023 and quickly slashed spending as part of a shock therapy program to pull the South American country out of a deep crisis, has not translated into across-the-board improvements.
Prices of basic goods like jeans and tennis shoes are reportedly double what they are in other parts of the Americas. Pensioners continue to protest the cost of living, and anger over the relatively poor salaries of healthcare workers at a respected pediatric hospital has turned into a months-long saga. Nearly 40% of Argentines remain in poverty, and many of them reject Milei's policies.
"I'm not a Peronist, but I'll vote for them because I'd vote for anyone before Milei," said Jorge, a 42-year-old "cartonero" who collects cardboard for recycling, an extremely poor living. The man, who declined to give his last name, said one of his four children was treated at the pediatric hospital where staff are protesting.
Posing another threat to Milei's popularity is the possibility that he may in coming months have to further tighten economic policy to meet the terms of a $20 billion International Monetary Fund loan that has boosted Argentina's reputation among investors, whose dollars the country desperately needs.
'RUPTURE IS INEVITABLE'
Up for grabs in the election is the vast province surrounding the capital, Buenos Aires, which is the geographic heart of Peronism and home to 40% of the country's voters. A government source told reporters Milei has vowed to defeat Peronist Governor Axel Kicillof there.
Milei's candidate unexpectedly placed first in a recent Buenos Aires local election, and consulting firm Observatorio Electoral shows Milei's Libertad Avanza party with a slim 37%-36% advantage over the center-left Peronists. Nationally, 42% of voters favor Milei against 23% for the Peronists.
Beating the standard-bearers of Juan Peron's legacy would have seemed impossible a few years ago, but with inflation down to a projected 30% this year, from 118% last year, and Milei credited with cutting corruption, some voters are ready to give the political firebrand more power.
"I'll vote for Milei again because he's achieved a degree of normality in the economy," said Federico Segovia, a 22-year-old university student who blamed the last Peronist president, Alberto Fernandez, for leaving the economy in disastrous shape. A recent survey by the consulting firm Synopsis found that the share of those who viewed Milei positively rose to 43.4% in May from 40.9% in April.
Perhaps the biggest wind in Milei's sails comes from the power struggle that has pitted Kicillof and his one-time mentor, former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
Kicillof, who served as economy minister in Fernandez de Kirchner's government from 2013 to 2015, is expected to run for president in the 2027 election. "The rupture is inevitable," a Peronist source told Reuters. The two opposition politicians are still debating whether they will join forces for the congressional elections. "If there is no agreement for the legislative elections and Peronism is divided, La Libertad Avanza will win the elections in the province of Buenos Aires," the source said.
Milei, meanwhile, has patched over divisions with his closest ideological neighbor, agreeing to offer a combined list of candidates with the center-right PRO party.
The Peronists make up the largest party in Congress and have dozens of governors and mayors across the country. Observatorio Electoral pollster Julio Burdman, however, thinks that power base won't be enough to stop Milei's forces. "The ruling party has all the conditions" to win the most votes, he said. "I can't imagine any other result."
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Forbes
36 minutes ago
- Forbes
Health Insurers Call Out Trump On Promise To Not Cut Seniors' Medicare
The nation's health insurance companies say legislation wending its way through the Republican-controlled Congress would break a promise by Donald Trump and the GOP not to cut Medicare benefits to seniors. It's the latest part of the healthcare industry to fight back against proposed federal cuts in healthcare benefits to millions of Americans. Already, physicians led by the American Medical Association have launched an ad campaign targeting U.S. Senators in an effort to thwart the budget legislation. Legislation known as the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' that narrowly passed the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives two weeks ago would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $793 billion and increase the number of uninsured by 7.8 million, a KFF analysis shows. But the powerful lobby, America's Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) said Medicare, too, would be cut and raise costs on millions of seniors. AHIP's members include some of the nation's largest health insurers, including Elevance Health, Humana, CVS Health's Aetna and an array of Blue Cross and Blue Shield plans. These health insurers, including UnitedHealth Group's UnitedHealthcare, provide health benefits to more than half of the nation's eligible seniors through privatized coverage known as Medicare Advantage. The plans contract with the federal government to provide traditional coverage available in traditional Medicare plus extra benefits and services to seniors, such as disease management and nurse help hotlines with some also offering vision, dental care and wellness programs. 'The President and Congressional leaders made a clear promise to seniors that there would be no cuts to Medicare as part of the budget reconciliation legislation," AHIP President and CEO Mike Tuffin said Monday. 'Last-minute attempts to cut Medicare Advantage to fund other priorities would directly undermine that promise and lead to higher costs and reductions in benefits for more than 34 million seniors,' Tuffin said. "We oppose cuts to Medicare Advantage, including the No UPCODE Act, and urge Congress to keep the promise to America's seniors.' Any loss in health plan members covered by Medicare Advantage would be an added blow to health insurers. They need large numbers of subscribers paying premiums to cover their costs. Many of these same health insurers have been hit hard by rising costs from an influx of seniors purchasing Medicare Advantage.
Los Angeles Times
an hour ago
- Los Angeles Times
NIH scientists publish declaration criticizing Trump's deep cuts in public health research
WASHINGTON — In his confirmation hearings to lead the National Institutes of Health, Jay Bhattacharya pledged his openness to views that might conflict with his own. 'Dissent,' he said, 'is the very essence of science.' That commitment is being put to the test. On Monday, scores of scientists at the agency sent their Trump-appointed leader a letter titled the Bethesda Declaration, challenging 'policies that undermine the NIH mission, waste public resources, and harm the health of Americans and people across the globe.' It says: 'We dissent.' In a capital where insiders often insist on anonymity to say such things publicly, 92 NIH researchers, program directors, branch chiefs and scientific review officers put their signatures on the letter — and their careers on the line. An additional 250 of their colleagues across the agency endorsed the declaration without using their names. The four-page letter, addressed to Bhattacharya, also was sent to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and members of Congress who oversee the NIH. White House spokesman Kush Desai defended the administration's approach to federal research and said President Trump is focused on restoring a 'Gold Standard' of science, not 'ideological activism.' The signers went public in the face of a 'culture of fear and suppression' they say Trump's administration has spread through the federal civil service. 'We are compelled to speak up when our leadership prioritizes political momentum over human safety and faithful stewardship of public resources,' the declaration says. Bhattacharya responded to the declaration by saying it 'has some fundamental misconceptions about the policy directions the NIH has taken in recent months.' 'Nevertheless, respectful dissent in science is productive,' he said in a statement. 'We all want the NIH to succeed.' Named for the agency's headquarters location in Maryland, the Bethesda Declaration details upheaval in the world's premier public health research institution over the course of mere months. It addresses the termination of 2,100 research grants valued at more than $12 billion and some of the human costs that have resulted, such as cutting off medication regimens to participants in clinical trials or leaving them with unmonitored device implants. In one case, an NIH-supported study of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis in Haiti had to be stopped, ceasing antibiotic treatment mid-course for patients. In a number of cases, trials that were mostly completed were rendered useless without the money to finish and analyze the work, the letter says. 'Ending a $5 million research study when it is 80% complete does not save $1 million,' it says, 'it wastes $4 million.' Jenna Norton, who oversees health disparity research at the agency's National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, recently appeared at a forum by Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, D-Md., to talk about what's happening at the NIH. At the event, she masked to conceal her identity. Now the mask is off. She was a lead organizer of the declaration. 'I want people to know how bad things are at NIH,' Norton told The Associated Press. The signers said they modeled their indictment after Bhattacharya's Great Barrington Declaration in 2020, when he was a professor at Stanford University Medical School. His declaration drew together likeminded infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists who dissented from what they saw as excessive COVID-19 lockdown policies and felt ostracized by the larger public health community that pushed those policies, including the NIH. 'He is proud of his statement, and we are proud of ours,' said Sarah Kobrin, a branch chief at the NIH's National Cancer Institute who signed the Bethesda Declaration. As chief of the Health Systems and Interventions Research Branch, Kobrin provides scientific oversight of researchers across the country who've been funded by the cancer institute or want to be. Cuts in personnel and money have shifted her work from improving cancer care research to what she sees as minimizing its destruction. 'So much of it is gone — my work,' she said. The 21-year NIH veteran said she signed because she didn't want to be 'a collaborator' in the political manipulation of biomedical science. Ian Morgan, a postdoctoral fellow with the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, also signed the declaration. 'We have a saying in basic science,' he said. 'You go and become a physician if you want to treat thousands of patients. You go and become a researcher if you want to save billions of patients. 'We are doing the research that is going to go and create the cures of the future,' he added. But that won't happen, he said, if Trump's Republican administration prevails with its searing grant cuts. The NIH employees interviewed by the AP emphasized they were speaking for themselves and not for their institutes nor the NIH. Employees from all 27 NIH institutes and centers gave their support to the declaration. Most who signed are intimately involved with evaluating and overseeing extramural research grants. The letter asserts 'NIH trials are being halted without regard to participant safety' and the agency is shirking commitments to trial participants who 'braved personal risk to give the incredible gift of biological samples, understanding that their generosity would fuel scientific discovery and improve health.' The Trump administration has gone at public health research on several fronts, both directly, as part of its broad effort to root out diversity, equity and inclusion values throughout the bureaucracy, and as part of its drive to starve some universities of federal money. At the White House, Desai said Americans 'have lost confidence in our increasingly politicized healthcare and research apparatus that has been obsessed with DEI and COVID, which the majority of Americans moved on from years ago.' This has forced 'indiscriminate grant terminations, payment freezes for ongoing research, and blanket holds on awards regardless of the quality, progress, or impact of the science,' the declaration says. Some NIH employees have previously come forward in televised protests to air grievances, and many walked out of Bhattacharya's town hall with staff. The declaration is the first cohesive effort to register agency-wide dismay with the NIH's direction. The dissenters remind Bhattacharya in their letter of his oft-stated ethic that academic freedom must be a lynchpin in science. With that in place, he said in a statement in April, 'NIH scientists can be certain they are afforded the ability to engage in open, academic discourse as part of their official duties and in their personal capacities without risk of official interference, professional disadvantage or workplace retaliation.' Now it will be seen whether that's enough to protect those NIH employees challenging the Trump administration and him. 'There's a book I read to my kids, and it talks about how you can't be brave if you're not scared,' said Norton, who has three young children. 'I am so scared about doing this, but I am trying to be brave for my kids because it's only going to get harder to speak up. 'Maybe I'm putting my kids at risk by doing this,' she added. 'And I'm doing it anyway because I couldn't live with myself otherwise.' 'In recent years, Americans have lost confidence in our increasingly politicized healthcare and research apparatus that has been obsessed with DEI and COVID, which the majority of Americans moved on from years ago,' spokesman Kush Desai said. 'The Trump administration is focused on restoring the Gold Standard of Science — not ideological activism — as the guiding principle of HHS, the NIH, and the CDC to finally address our chronic disease epidemic.' Woodward and Ellgren write for the Associated Press. AP writer Lauran Neergaard contributed to this report.
an hour ago
Colombian presidential candidate in critical condition after assassination attempt
BOGOTA, Colombia -- Miguel Uribe, a conservative Colombian presidential hopeful, was in critical condition on Monday after being shot in the head from close range during a rally over the weekend. In a statement, doctors said the 39-year-old senator had 'barely' responded to medical interventions that included brain surgery following the assassination attempt that has had a chilling effect on the South American nation. Uribe was shot on Saturday as he addressed a small crowd of people who had gathered in a park in Bogota's Modelia neighborhood. On Sunday hundreds of people gathered outside the hospital where Uribe is being treated to pray for his recovery. Some carried rosaries in their hands, while others chanted slogans against President Gustavo Petro. 'This is terrible,' said Walter Jimenez, a lawyer who showed up outside the hospital with a sign calling for Petro's removal. 'It feels like we are going back to the 1990's,' he said, referring to a decade during which drug cartels and rebel groups murdered judges, presidential candidates and journalists with impunity. Petro has condemned the attack and urged his opponents to not use it for political ends. But some Colombians have also asked the president to tone down his rhetoric against opposition leaders. The assassination attempt stunned the nation, with many politicians describing it as the latest sign of how security has deteriorated in Colombia, where the government is struggling to control violence in rural and urban areas, despite a 2016 peace deal with the nation's largest rebel group. The attack on Uribe comes amid growing animosity between Petro and the Senate over blocked reforms to the nation's labor laws. Petro has organized protests in favor of the reforms, where he has delivered fiery speeches referring to opposition leaders as 'oligarchs' and 'enemies of the people." 'There is no way to argue that the president … who describes his opponents as enemies of the people, paramilitaries and assassins has no responsibility in this,' Andres Mejia, a prominent political analyst, wrote on X. The Attorney General's office said a 15-year-old boy was arrested at the scene of the attack against Uribe. Videos captured on social media show a suspect shooting at Uribe from close range. The suspect was injured in the leg and was recovering at another clinic, authorities said. Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez added that over 100 officers are investigating the attack. On Monday, Colombia's Attorney General Luz Adriana Camargo said that minors in Colombia face sentences of up to eight years in detention for committing murders. Camargo acknowledged that lenient sentences have encouraged armed groups to recruit minors to commit crimes. However, she said that Colombian law also considers that minors who are recruited by armed groups are victims, and is trying to protect them. 'As a society we need to reflect on why a minor is getting caught up in a network of assassins, and what we can do to stop this from happening in the future,' she said. Camargo said officials had not identified any death threats against Uribe prior to Saturday's assassination attempt. But on Monday, Uribe's lawyer said he has sued the director of the National Protection Unit, a government agency that assigns security guards and bullet proof vehicles to politicians and human rights leaders. Uribe launched his presidential campaign in October. His lawyer, Victor Mosquera, said the National Protection Unit ignored multiple requests by Uribe to have his security detail expanded as he campaigned. 'His security detail had to be improved,' Mosquera said in a press conference. 'We have to investigate whether the attack (on Uribe) was a consequence of negligence.'
