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The Market Online
31 minutes ago
- The Market Online
Markets Surge, Tariffs Soften, and Crypto Gains Ground: Alpha Ba on What's Next for Global Investors
IMF Ups Growth : Global GDP forecast raised to 3% for 2025, with inflation steady. : Global GDP forecast raised to for 2025, with inflation steady. Tariffs Still High : Lower than expected, but 17% tariffs keep inflation elevated. : Lower than expected, but keep inflation elevated. Crypto Demand Rising : Bitcoin's fixed supply and low ownership drive interest. : and low ownership drive interest. ETF & Policy Boost: Crypto ETFs gain favor; Genius Act adds regulatory clarity. In a global market landscape defined by evolving tariffs, tempered inflation expectations, and an eye toward crypto, investors are navigating both volatility and opportunity. Alpha Ba, Chief Investment Officer at Pillow Investment Partner, a global consulting powerhouse based in Toronto, joined The Market Online's Expert Exchange for a global update following the IMF's latest revision to the 2025 World Economic Outlook. This article is a journalistic opinion piece which has been written based on independent research. It is intended to inform investors and should not be taken as a recommendation or financial advice. 'The IMF came out yesterday with an update to their report,' Ba told Coreena Robertson. 'At the highest level, they're now expecting a slightly higher GDP growth globally, with inflation expectations being unchanged.' Alpha Ba, CIO Pillow Investment Ba explains that investors drove markets higher after recognizing that worst-case tariff scenarios were unlikely. For 2026, expectations have nudged from 3% to 3.1%. However, inflation estimates remain steady at 4.2% for this year, with a mild decline to 3.6% in 2026. Tariff Relief — But Not Quite a Victory Lap What's driving the revision? The recalibration in tariff expectations following Liberation Day by the Trump administration was key. 'Tariffs were expected to be about 24% on a weighted average basis in the U.S. That 24 now seems to have gone down to 17%,' said Ba. 'Lower tariffs mean slightly higher growth.' Still, the relief comes with caveats. 'Even though they are reduced, they remain high enough to generate inflation in the next couple of quarters,' Ba added. Indeed, the U.S. reported June inflation at 2.7%, still above the Federal Reserve's target. As a result, interest rate cuts remain off the table — for now. Global Markets: Investors Riding the Wave Despite the persistent inflation pressures, investor sentiment is bullish. 'Investors have been partying like it's Christmas,' Ba said with a chuckle. 'Since the bottom in April, the markets are up 27 to 30%. The S&P is up 28%.' Ba explains that investors have buoyed markets by realizing the worst-case tariff scenarios may not materialize. 'Investors have correctly anticipated that tariffs would be more subdued than expected. That has been a correct assessment.' But caution still lingers beneath the surface. High tariffs — even at 17% — can create ripple effects, especially when it comes to pricing pressure and corporate margins in global supply chains. Inflation Hedges: Crypto in Focus With traditional inflation hedges like gold holding firm, investors are increasingly eyeing digital alternatives — notably, cryptocurrency. 'We are pretty positive on crypto. We've been investing in crypto for a long time,' said Ba. Today, the total crypto market cap sits around $4 trillion, dwarfed by $22 trillion in gold and $85 trillion in global equities. But Bar sees upside in the disparity. 'It's still an under appreciated asset globally. Only 13% of G7 investors own Bitcoin, versus 40 to 50% owning stock.' Ba emphasized that Bitcoin's fixed supply — capped at 21 million coins, with 95% already issued — drives its value as demand continues to rise. 'We think Bitcoin is very attractive. It's a fixed supply asset in a world of expanding monetary bases.' Beyond the Coins: ETFs and Infrastructure Bets While the CIO declined to disclose the specific portfolio weighting of crypto at Pillow Investment Partner, he confirmed a 'middle weight' exposure and clarified their investment vehicle of choice. 'We actually own the ETFs — they are liquid and easy to deploy from a financial perspective. We don't want to take the operating risk of direct coin ownership right now.' Alpha Ba, CIO Pillow Investment Among the ETFs favored is IBIT by BlackRock, one of the fastest-growing funds in ETF history, reaching $50 billion in assets in record time. Bar also pointed to decentralized platforms like Ethereum, which powers roughly 70% of all smart contracts, as an important layer in the ecosystem. And for those looking at companies in the crypto infrastructure space, he noted this as a viable alternative — with a key regulatory tailwind. Genius Act: A Quiet Game-Changer? The recently passed Genius Act, which mandates reserve backing of stablecoins with U.S. Treasuries, has added clarity to an otherwise opaque regulatory environment. 'It's a positive. From a government perspective, it creates more demand for U.S. Treasuries. And from a crypto perspective, it creates more regulatory clarity,' said Ba. Global Market Final Thoughts In a year where expectations have flipped and investors are searching for solid ground amid uncertainty, Alpha Ba offers a roadmap marked by optimism and realism. 'Yes, there's growth. Yes, there's upside. But inflation risks haven't gone away — and neither has volatility.' Still, if investors are willing to navigate the noise, opportunities remain — from equities and ETFs to the expanding frontiers of digital assets. Alpha Ba provided an update to this interview and article on August 15th. Ba stated, 'This week's inflation number (CPI) was well-behaved at 2.7% in July, justifying a continued rally in equities, as tariffs have had a subdued impact on the economy so far.' For more Expert Exchange interviews and insights, check out Ba's Stock Picks from Latin America to Canada. Previously, Ba also gave a global market update in the the trade war disruption, Join the discussion: Find out what the Bullboards are saying about [Hyperlink BB Company Page] and check out Stockhouse's stock forums and message boards. Stockhouse does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment decisions should be made based on your own research and consultation with a registered investment professional. The issuer is solely responsible for the accuracy of the information contained herein. For full disclaimer information, please click here.
Local France
33 minutes ago
- Local France
9 essential back-to-school websites for children and parents in France
There's making sure you have everything you need from your school's list, checking your beloved offspring are catching the correct bus know where and how to get back – and what to do if they hop on the wrong bus back. Then, there's making sure that everyone gets up at the right time, has something to wear, and that your youngest hasn't mistakenly packed the cat in their bag. READ ALSO How to prepare for your child starting at French school But, beyond the day-to-day, there's a whole load of information parents may need to know. Here are some websites that might be useful. Term time The most important question on any child's mind as they head back to school after the long summer holidays is: when is the next holiday? That's a question that's not necessarily as easy to answer as you may think, as France has divided its school holidays into three regions to prevent over-booking of hotel resorts at peak times. Advertisement The Toussaint, Christmas and the long summer break are the same wherever you live in France. Others – the two-week winter and Spring holidays – are spread over a four-week period. This is the government website that confirms when schools in France break up for the holidays and go back where you live. READ ALSO Can parents take children out of French schools for a religious holiday? Insurance questions Your school will demand that you have insurance for your child – known as assurance scolaire. This is to cover the cost of any damage that may be caused or incurred at school. It will cover: Civil liability insurance for damage caused by the child Personal injury insurance for damages suffered by the child, including if they injure themselves. Depending on the formula chosen, the insurance protects your child in one of the following ways: During school activities and the journey between home and school, there and back (usually called assurance scolaire ) 24 hours a day, anywhere, all year round, including during leisure activities and holiday periods (usually called assurance extra-scolaire ). You can take out this insurance with your usual insurer, or join a group contract offered by a parents' association or by a private educational establishment. Be aware that you may be covered under existing insurance arrangements. You can find out more, here READ ALSO Parents reveal: What to expect when your non-French speaking child starts school in France Financial help If you're registered with France's social security system and have school-age children, you may be eligible for means-tested help with the annual cost of buying everything you need for class. A lump sum is then deposited into your bank account in August. To find out if you're eligible, you can click here . Lower-income households may also be eligible for additional grants and help – you can find out more, here . READ ALSO Why do (most) French primary schools have Wednesday off? Exams The bac and the brevet exams weigh heavily on the minds of children at lycées and collèges in France. There are regular changes to how the exams are set and administered – for example, this year children in première classes (those born in 2009 who are still in education) will take an additional maths exam to confirm they're meeting expectations. Advertisement Alternatively, if your child is due to take their brevet this year, but plans to study a vocational course after completing their exams, there are things you need to know . You may also want to know more about the new education programme for emotional, relational and sexual life that will be unveiled at the start of the 2025-26 school year. READ ALSO Are packed lunches really banned in French schools? Sport Schools in France have a unique relationship with sport, competitive sport in particular. This simulator helps you find out whether you will need to supply a medical certificate in order to practice sport at school or at a club. Health Children in cinquième – the second year of collège – are to be offered a Meningococcal ACWY vaccine that can help protect against meningococcal disease. Unlike other vaccines, this is not compulsory. You can find out more about it here . READ ALSO Which vaccinations are compulsory for children in France? Elections Elections? At school? Yes. There will be elections in class for pupil representative on certain school bodies. Meanwhile, parents can put themselves forwards as parent representatives. You'll need good French for this as you will be responsible for facilitating relations between parents and school staff; and expected to intervene with the school principal to discuss specific issues, or to provide mediation at the request of the parents concerned. All parents with a child in school are encouraged to vote - if you're a non-EU citizen this might be your only opportunity to vote in France, so enjoy it! Elections take place at schools across the country on the same dates every year. You can find out more about what's involved here .
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Met Office maps show how hot it will be over bank holiday weekend
After four heatwaves during a scorching summer period, what's the weather going to be like on the last bank holiday before Christmas? The last bank holiday before Christmas is looking likely to be a warm affair, as the end of the meteorological summer draws closer. Four heatwaves have so far seen temperatures across the country rocketed to over 30C, with June and July both seeing well above-average conditions. As a result, the Met Office has said this summer is on track to be one of the warmest, if not 'the' warmest, since records began in 1884. Hurricane Erin may potentially bring rain and wind to the country next week, but bank holiday Monday is looking like it will stay warm ahead of any unsettled weather. How hot will it be? The weekend weather will be good news for those heading off for a late summer break as high pressure will bring settled and fine weather for Saturday and into Sunday. However, there is a chance of some showers later in the weekend and into Monday, the Met Office said. Nevertheless, maps show temperatures in the low 20s on Saturday, with a high of 22C on Sunday. Bank holiday Monday could see temperatures climb slightly to a peak of 24C in the south – with much of the country looking like it will stay dry. Hurricane Erin may yet bring more unsettled weather later next week, although the Met Office again say it is difficult to predict several days in advance. Yahoo breaks down what the weather will be like for each region of the UK. London and the South East Thursday Largely dry with bright and sunny spell. Chance of isolated showers. Maximum temperature 22C. Friday Sunny start will lead to clouds with some sunny intervals. Brief isolated showers possible. Maximum temperature 22C. Saturday to Monday Mostly fine, dry and settled but isolated showers possible on Friday. Temperatures rising above average. Warm or very warm by bank holiday Monday. South West Thursday Warm and sunny with some cloud possible following a cool start. Maximum temperature 23C. Friday Morning fog clearing to leave a sunny day, although clouds expected in the afternoon. Maximum temperature 24C. Saturday to Monday Settled throughout the weekend with a mixture of cloud and sunny periods. Dry and sunny on Monday with a chance of isolated showers. Midlands Thursday Dry and partly cloudy in the East Midlands with sunny spells. Maximum temperature 19C. Warm and sunny in the West Midlands with lighter winds than on Wednesday. Maximum temperature 21C. Friday Cloudy with sunny intervals and possible brief showers in the East Midlands. Maximum temperature 22C. Mostly dry with cloud developing in the West Midlands. Feeling warm. Maximum temperature 23C. Saturday to Monday Mostly fine, dry and settled with sunny spells with showers possible in the East Midlands on Friday. Temperatures rising over the weekend and into Monday. Staying dry and sunny in the West Midlands over the weekend, with a similar picture on Monday. North East Thursday Cloudy but largely dry with sunnier spells more likely toward the coast. Chance of an isolated shower. Maximum temperature 17C. Friday Partly cloudy with sunny intervals. Isolated showers possible. Maximum temperature 19C. Saturday to Monday Mostly settled throughout with sunny spells but showers remain possible. Warming up into bank holiday Monday. North West Thursday Some sunshine but cloud spreading throughout the morning. Cooler but less breezy. Maximum temperature 19C. Friday Some cloud but mostly dry and warm when the sun appears. Maximum temperature 22C. Saturday to Monday Settled weather with a mixture of cloud and sunshine throughout. Feeling warm in the sunshine. Scotland Thursday Chance of the odd shower but becoming dry and sunny in the afternoon. Maximum temperature 19C. Friday Dry and cloudy but sunny spells developing. Maximum temperature 19C. Saturday to Monday Settled and mild throughout the weekend with some light showers over higher ground. Northern Ireland Thursday Dry with sunny spells increasing throughout the day. Maximum temperature 21C. Friday Dry but cloudy with minimal sunny spells. Maximum temperature 20C. Saturday to Monday Sunny on Friday but cloudier on Saturday and Sunday with the odd light shower possible. Wales Thursday A cool start will lead to a warmer day with lighter winds than on Wednesday. Maximum temperature 21C. Friday Mist and fog clearing to leave some sunny spells. Feeling warm in the sunshine. Maximum temperature 22C. Saturday to Monday Remaining dry and settled with sunny periods and warm sunshine. Showers possible on Saturday. Warm in the sunshine. Solve the daily Crossword
