Keir's first year: Starmer under pressure after a rocky start for Labour
A year later, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice is calling it 'the worst start for any newly elected prime minister'.
Sir Keir was accused of setting a gloomy tone at the outset, telling the public that 'things will get worse before they get better' and warning of 'tough choices' and a 'black hole' left in the finances by his predecessors.
Soon after, a plan was unveiled to cut back winter fuel payments for pensioners, only for an enduring backlash to see the Government U-turn and widen eligibility months later.
This and the recent climbdown over plans for welfare cuts to stave off a backbench rebellion have raised the prospect of further tax rises in the autumn budget as the Chancellor seeks to balance the books.
It has also raised the prospect of rebellious MPs being emboldened to continue pushing back on future policy, putting Sir Keir's plans at risk.
When it comes to whether voters like him, Sir John has argued that the Government has a 'lack of direction' and that the Prime Minister was 'never especially popular' and that 'the public still don't know what he stands for.'
'The only vision he's really presented is: 'We'll fix the problems the Conservatives left us.' But it's not clear how he wants to change the country,' he told Times Radio.
Sir Keir has acknowledged the 'challenge' of 'getting our story across'.
'If I was to list to you all the things we've done, it's a big long list of things. [But] how do we tell the story of what we've done? How do we make sure it's actually felt by working people?' he said in an interview with The Times.
He also said he took 'ownership' of all decisions made by his Government, and that he did not get to grips with the growing rebellion over welfare reforms earlier as he was focused on international affairs.
Although that rebellion was eventually reduced from 126 MPs to just 49, it required extensive concessions and marked the biggest revolt of his premiership so far, just days before he celebrated his first year in office.
He has played a balancing act on the world stage, strengthening ties with the EU while courting US President Donald Trump, who he wooed with an invitation for a second state visit to the UK when they met in the White House.
The football-loving Prime Minister lists a 'hat-trick' of deals – an EU 'reset', a deal with India, and an agreement for relief from Mr Trump's tariffs which has been partially implemented – among his key achievements.
Sir Keir said he took 'ownership' of all decisions made by his Government (Kin Cheung/PA)
He also touts his commitment to get defence spending up to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 – and the new Nato defence and security spending pledge of 5% of GDP by 2035.
At home, he is battling the rise of Reform UK.
A YouGov megapoll released last week said a general election now could see Reform UK taking more seats than Labour, while the latest Ipsos poll puts Nigel Farage's party at 34% with Labour behind at 25%.
Sir Keir framed Reform UK as Labour's main opposition at a press conference in May, saying the Conservative Party has 'run out of road'.
It came after Reform UK hoovered up council seats across England in local elections, as well as gaining a seat previously held by Labour in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
An immigration speech in which the Prime Minister said the UK could become an 'island of strangers' drew criticism and comparisons with Enoch Powell's infamous 'rivers of blood' address that was blamed for inflaming racial tensions in the 1960s.
Sir Keir has since expressed regret at the phrasing.
But he reportedly plans to target 'authoritarian-leaning' voters with a focus on tackling migration and crime.
In recent polling by LabourList of members, 64% said they wanted the party to shift to the left, with only around 2% favouring a move to the right.
Sir Keir has pledged to lead a 'decade of national renewal' (Jordan Pettitt/PA)
The next test at the polls will be Welsh and Scottish elections in May, at which Reform UK hopes to end Labour's 26-year domination in the Senedd next year.
Sir Keir again took aim at the party in a speech to the Welsh Labour conference last weekend, saying Mr Farage has 'no plan at all' for the nation.
Political historian Sir Anthony Seldon has praised Sir Keir's ability to react to crises in foreign policy and during the riots last summer, but urged him to counter Reform UK by communicating 'growth' and 'optimism'.
'Show people that you're Prime Minister, show people you've got a story, show people things are getting better across the whole country with growth and then, you know, that will deal with Reform,' he told Sky News.
Sir Keir has pledged to lead a 'decade of national renewal' and said that the first year of that has been 'cleaning up that mess' his Government inherited.
In a signal he is seeking to put a positive spin on the future, he told business leaders last week: 'We've wiped the state clean, we've stabilised the economy, and now we can go on to the next phase of government, building on that foundation.'
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South Wales Argus
30 minutes ago
- South Wales Argus
MPs declare more than £1m of gifts and hospitality in year since election
Rows over free tickets and other gifts given to senior Labour figures, including Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, posed an early problem for the Government, which had made restoring trust in politics a major part of its election campaign. But analysis of the MPs' Register of Interests by the PA news agency shows hundreds of MPs have declared receiving gifts in the past year. Some 236 MPs declared gifts from UK sources, totalling £477,539, while 144 said they had been on overseas trips paid for by donors, charities, think tanks or foreign governments, worth another £810,761. In total, 318 MPs declared that they had received gifts in the year since the election, just under half the number sitting in the Commons. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage declared receiving almost £100,000 in gifts and hospitality since the election, mostly relating to trips to the US (Ben Whitley/PA) Reform UK leader Nigel Farage declared the highest value, receiving gifts worth a total of £98,709 over the past year. The bulk of these took the form of flights and accommodation on a number of trips to the United States, paid for by Reform donor Christopher Harborne and party volunteer George Cottrell. But they also include £8,413 for a helicopter journey from JC Bamford, whose owner has previously backed the Tories, and tickets worth £2,000 from boxer Derek Chisora to watch his fight against Joe Joyce last August. The biggest recipient of hospitality from UK sources was the Prime Minister, thanks to his regular attendance at Arsenal games. Sir Keir declared £11,170 worth of football tickets over the past year. A long-standing Arsenal season ticket holder, he has previously said that he is no longer able to sit in the stands because of security concerns, but has been offered a seat in the club directors' box so he can continue to attend matches with his son. The Prime Minister declared a total of £17,344 in hospitality and other gifts since the election, with other donations including tickets from Universal Music and the FA to see Taylor Swift and the loan of clothes to his wife. Long-standing Arsenal season ticket holder Sir Keir Starmer has said he accepts hospitality in the club's directors' box as security concerns mean he can no watch matches the stands (Stefan Rousseau/PA) Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch declared just one gift – £14,350 from Tory donor Neil Record to cover work space, accommodation and hospitality for a series of meetings in Gloucestershire in March this year. While several MPs received significant sums in gifts, most declared lower amounts or none at all, with the median MP receiving £1,208 in gifts over the year. Some 49 MPs received free tickets to football matches in the past year, totalling almost £59,000. But gifts from football clubs and organisations such as the FA and the Premier League totalled more than £70,000, and included concert tickets as well as hospitality at matches. The single largest gift of sporting tickets, however, was declared by shadow business minister Greg Smith, who received hospitality worth £5,160 at last year's British Grand Prix from hosts Silverstone. Four other MPs, including Leader of the Commons Lucy Powell and shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel, also received hospitality at Silverstone last year. Eight MPs received hospitality from the Lawn Tennis Association at Wimbledon in 2024, while golf's R&A provided tickets for four MPs at the Open. Another 49 MPs received tickets to awards ceremonies including the Baftas, the Brit Awards and the British Kebab Awards, while 23 were given tickets and hospitality for horse racing events, and 21 received tickets to concerts. The most popular of those concerts were part of Taylor Swift's Eras Tour, with nine MPs receiving free tickets totalling £14,628, mostly from the Premier League and the FA. As well as the Prime Minister, they included Cabinet ministers Darren Jones, Peter Kyle, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting, and Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey. During the last election, Labour campaigned on a pledge to restore probity to public life after the scandals that had plagued the previous Conservative government. Last year Sir Keir sought to toughen up transparency rules for ministers, introducing a new monthly register of gifts and hospitality for ministers rather than the previous quarterly releases. He also changed the Ministerial Code in November to include the seven principles of public life directly in the rules and allow the independent adviser on ministerial standards to launch his own investigations. But Alastair McCapra, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Public Relations, warned the continued culture of gifts and hospitality in British politics risked creating a 'full-blown crisis of legitimacy'. He said: 'At the heart of this credibility gap is the shadowy relationship between business and politics. 'The entrenched culture of gifts and hospitality in British politics creates the perception of corruption, and the suspicion of back doors to access are damaging a Labour Party that campaigned on promises of transparency, integrity and a break from the past. 'Political scandals thrive in the gaps between information and silence. 'If the Government and the business community are serious about building back trust, they must prioritise and accept a relationship that is transparent and accountable to the public.'
South Wales Argus
31 minutes ago
- South Wales Argus
Labour sees biggest first-year poll drop for governing party since 1990s
Sir Keir Starmer's party has averaged 24% in polls in the past month, down 10 points from 34% in the weeks following the 2024 election. It is common for political parties to experience a slide in the polls after taking power – it has happened to every UK government bar one in the past 40 years – but a drop of this size is unusual. The last time it was in double digits was 1992-93, when the Tory administration led by Mr Major saw its poll numbers fall 12 points, from an average of 43% in the weeks after the April 1992 election to 31% a year later. John Major meets people on a walkabout in Bolton during the 1992 general election campaign (Adam Butler/PA) The findings have been compiled by the PA news agency, using its own archive of national poll data combined with figures published in the long-running British General Election academic studies. Polls measuring voting intention do not always appear in the immediate aftermath of an election – for instance, the first polls of this parliament were not carried out until the start of August 2024, one month after Labour's victory on July 4. To compare Labour's poll performance fairly with that of previous governments, the average poll numbers in the weeks after a general election have been compared with those for the month leading up to the first anniversary of that election. Almost every government in the past four decades has seen their poll standings slip over this period, but mostly by single digits – and often from a much higher starting point than Labour's 34% in 2024. For example, the Labour government led by Tony Blair saw its vote share in the polls drop by an average of six points during its first year in office in 1997-98, though from the lofty heights of 59% to 53%, still well ahead of all other parties. Tony Blair and his wife, Cherie, walk into Downing Street after Labour won the 1997 general election (Sean Dempsey/PA) Labour's second term under Mr Blair saw a larger poll drop of seven points, but from 49% to 42% – again, comfortably ahead of its rivals. The Conservative government led by Boris Johnson elected in 2019 saw its first-year poll ratings also slip by seven points, but from 46% to 39%. There were smaller drops at the start of Labour's third term in 2005-06 (down five points in 12 months) and at the start of Conservative leader David Cameron's first term as PM in 2010 (down three points), though Mr Cameron's second win in 2015 was followed by a larger six-point fall. The one recent exception to this trend was the Conservative minority government led by Theresa May that was elected in 2017, with Tory support in the polls increasing by two points over 12 months, from 40% to 42%. Theresa May speaks in Downing Street after the 2017 general election, which led to the formation of a minority Conservative government (Jonathan Brady/PA) A first-year drop in the polls for a governing party is typically accompanied by a rise in support for the main opposition in Parliament. But the past 12 months have seen something different and new in UK politics: a simultaneous and large fall in support for both the government and the opposition, with the Conservatives slipping from an average of 25% in the aftermath of the 2024 election to 18% over the past month. And while Labour and the Tories have both slid in the polls, smaller parties have risen – notably Reform, which has climbed from third place on 17% to first place on 29%. The Liberal Democrats have also edged up, from 12% to 14%, while the Greens have increased from 6% to 9%. Opinion polls are snapshots of the prevailing public mood, not projections or forecasts – and they do not predict what could happen at the next general election. But the amount of movement in recent polls, in particular the fall in support for both Labour and the Conservatives, points to an unsettled mood among voters and a volatile political landscape. Sir Keir's personal approval ratings make similarly challenging reading for the Prime Minister. Polling company Ipsos has measured public satisfaction with prime ministers since the late 1970s. Its data tracks the proportion of adults in Britain who say they are either satisfied or dissatisfied with how the PM is doing their job. The difference between these two numbers represents the approval score. Margaret Thatcher speaks to the press the day after winning the 1979 general election (PA) The most recent Ipsos survey, completed in early June – not quite a full year since the general election – suggests 19% of adults are satisfied with Sir Keir's performance and 73% are dissatisfied, giving him a net approval score of minus 54. This is lower than any other score recorded by Ipsos for a prime minister roughly 12 months after taking office. The next lowest score is minus 48, for Labour's Gordon Brown in June 2008, and minus 37 for the Conservatives' Rishi Sunak in October 2023. The highest approval ratings were for Mr Blair in May 1998 (a plus score of 44) and Mr Major in November 1991 (plus 15). The other scores are minus 3 for Mr Cameron (May 2011); minus 7 for Conservative PM Margaret Thatcher (June 1980) and minus 25 for Mrs May (July 2017), while Mr Johnson had a net approval rating of zero a year into office in July 2020, with the same proportion of people saying they were satisfied and dissatisfied. Sir Keir's current score of minus 54 is not quite the worst ever approval rating for a prime minister reported by Ipsos, however. Mrs Thatcher dropped as low as minus 56 in March 1990, while both Mr Major and Mr Sunak sank as far as minus 59, in August 1994 and April 2024 respectively.
South Wales Argus
31 minutes ago
- South Wales Argus
Starmer faces Labour turmoil and global volatility as he marks year in Number 10
The Prime Minister led his party back into power with more than 400 MPs on July 4 last year – clinching a majority just short of Sir Tony Blair's landslide in 1997. But with a daunting in-tray of problems including a stuttering economy, creaking public services and global volatility, his political honeymoon period was short-lived. The Prime Minister said his Cabinet should look back with a sense of 'pride' at the first year in office (Carl Court/PA) His personal popularity is now the lowest of any British premier after their first 12 months in office, political scientist and polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said. 'There were pretty clear potential weaknesses before they even started, and most of those weaknesses have basically just been exposed over the course of the last 12 months,' he told the PA news agency. Sir John said part of the problem lay in what he described as a failure of narrative in setting out the Government's vision for change to the public. 'They're portraying themselves as a repair gang rather than the builders of a new Jerusalem. Pessimism doesn't necessarily go down very well,' he told PA. 'The thing with Starmer is, he's a brilliant prosecution lawyer… But prosecution lawyers present cases that have been (put together) by someone else. The problem is that as a political leader you've got to prosecute your own case. 'Maybe he needs new personnel? Either he's got to learn to do it himself or get someone in to do it for him.' That verdict was echoed by some dissenting voices within Labour ranks, where there is lingering discontent among rebels over the Government's Welfare Bill despite Number 10 offering major concessions on the legislation. The Government saw off the threat of a major Commons defeat over the legislation on Tuesday after shelving plans to restrict eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip), the main disability benefit in England. 'I think he really needs to think about why he wants to be a Labour Prime Minister and what is it he actually cares about,' one long-serving Labour MP said. They said Tuesday had marked 'the lowest point' in Sir Keir's premiership so far and raised questions about his authority, warning that backbenchers may now feel emboldened to demand further U-turns elsewhere. Sir John said that the Government's challenges in passing legislation were unsurprising with the broad but fragile coalition of support on which Labour built its election victory, securing 412 seats on just 35% of the vote. That means many MPs defending narrow majorities and raises the prospect of 'a large body of people who are nervous about their political futures,' he said. The Government's original welfare proposals had been part of a package that ministers expected to save up to £5 billion a year, leaving Chancellor Rachel Reeves needing to look for the money elsewhere. The fallout threatens to cause lasting damage to morale in Labour ranks, with some rebels calling for a reset in relations between the parliamentary party and the leadership before fractures widen. Images of the Chancellor crying in the Commons on Wednesday have also led to questions about her future, although a Treasury spokesman cited a 'personal matter' as the cause of her distress and Number 10 said she would remain in post. Asked whether it was time for a course correction, Downing Street has said the Prime Minister will 'plough on' with the 'very busy agenda' of Government. But the MP quoted above said: 'The idea that they can keep carrying on as they've been carrying on is suicidal. 'They have no real sense of how the party thinks and feels.' Others had a more optimistic view of the year ahead, with a Starmer loyalist who supported the Bill suggesting the upset could be salvaged with a 'measured but solid response' from the Government. 'The worst they can do is nothing,' the backbencher added. The Prime Minister used a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday to defend his record in office, telling ministers the welfare Bill was 'to help those who can work into employment and ensure dignity and security for those who can't work.' He said they could all 'rightly look back with a real sense of pride and achievement' on the last 12 months, pointing to a reduction in NHS waiting lists and a series of economic agreements struck with the US, EU and India. Abroad, the Prime Minister faces a tricky diplomatic balancing act as he seeks to strengthen ties with both Europe and Washington amid global instability from the Ukraine war and Middle East crisis. Sir Keir Starmer secured a trade deal with the US last month (Suzanne Plunkett/PA)h At home, Labour is staring down a threat from Nigel Farage's Reform UK party, which turned opinion poll momentum into widespread gains at the ballot box during the local elections in May. Sir John said that parties such as Reform and the Greens offer more choice to voters wanting to express their discontent with Labour while the Tories continue to flounder in the polls. 'The character of the challenge is different from what it has been historically,' he said. Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University, said people had been expecting bold change on areas such as workers' rights and growth, and the Government's achievements so far were 'pretty small beer' by comparison. Critics say the first year has instead been marked by a series of U-turns, including a partial reversal of cuts to the winter fuel payment and the move to launch a national inquiry into grooming gangs after months of resisting opposition pressure to do so. The Government disputes that framing, pointing out for example that ministers had never explicitly ruled out a statutory probe into child sexual exploitation but waited for a review to be carried out before making a decision. Prof Bale said he believed the first year had gone 'worse than most people imagined' and warned 'it's difficult for a leader who starts badly to persuade people that he or she is what they need.' But he said the problems were not necessarily fatal, adding that setbacks early on in a premiership have an upside in allowing for more time to 'turn it round'. 'If you look back to Margaret Thatcher, she was able to do that, so it's not a foregone conclusion that all is lost, even for Keir Starmer himself,' he said. Arguing that the Government could recover in the polls if its plans for the economy and public services pay off, he added: 'I think you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but it's a very long tunnel.' Sir Keir has pledged to lead a 'decade of national renewal' through a phased approach to Government, the first year of which he said would involve 'cleaning up the mess' his administration had inherited. In a speech last week seeking to set the tone for the future, he said: 'We've wiped the state clean, we've stabilised the economy, and now we can go on to the next phase of government, building on that foundation.' A Government spokesperson said: 'We were elected with a commitment to deliver change and security for working people – and we are getting on with the job. 'We are delivering our Plan for Change – wages are rising faster than prices, interest rates have been cut four times, immigration has come down with 30,000 people with no right to be here removed and over four million NHS appointments have been delivered. 'Progress has been made, but we know people are impatient for change – and we are too – so we will continue to govern in the national interest for British people and deliver a decade of national renewal.'
