Plaid Cymru tops ITV Wales poll: A seismic shift which could see Rhun ap Iorwerth as FM
Next May's Senedd election is already going to usher in huge change: more Senedd members and a new voting system which effectively stops any party winning a majority. ITV Wales' poll shows that it could also lead to more dramatic, political change.
If it were to become reality, figures suggest the most likely outcome would be a government led by Plaid Cymru, as a minority government doing individual deals to pass legislation and budgets, or in some kind of formal arrangement with Labour and/or the Lib Dems and Greens.
This would be seismic. No Welsh Government has ever been led by any party other than Labour since devolution began in 1999. Plaid Cymru has been in government here in Wales before but only as a junior partner. Even given the immense difficulties that running a minority government would bring, the prospect of Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister of Wales would be a change few expected to see.
Many will see echoes of what happened in Scotland in 2007, when Alex Salmond led the SNP in a minority government with only 47 of the Scottish Parliament's 129 seats. Not only did his vulnerable government survive but the SNP thrived and went on to win a majority in 2011.
A Plaid Cymru-led government would also put independence for Wales on the agenda. Salmond's minority government and subsequent victory directly led to the 2014 referendum in Scotland. Could there be a Welsh independence referendum in 2033?
The poll suggests that it wouldn't be impossible to envisage an alternative scenario which would see a government led by Reform UK with the support of the Conservatives. There are huge barriers to such an outcome, given Reform's inexperience, Conservative divisions and the fact that it would still probably be a minority government with four other parties who would not countenance working with it. Unlikely, then, but not impossible.
For Labour it would be a huge psychological blow. After dominating politics here in Wales for more than a century and leading every Welsh Government since devolution began, it would be devastating.
Not only that, but it would cause untold damage to Sir Keir Starmer's UK Government. To lose such a stronghold, as Labour once did with Scotland, would feed into the arguments of opponents who accuse Labour of taking its heartlands for granted and failing to repay the lifelong loyalty of Labour voters here in Wales.
It would bolster, too, the arguments of those within Labour who think Sir Keir is leading the party in the wrong direction. Losing Wales could cost him his job as leader and prime minister.
This is a poll, it's a snapshot of opinion and a year is a long time in politics. But the Barn Cymru poll from us at ITV Cymru Wales in partnership with Cardiff University and YouGov has been tracking the views of Welsh voters for a decade. This one shows potential dramatic change ahead of us in 2026 and shows what the parties are fighting for. The prizes - and the risks - couldn't be bigger.
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