Századvég: Brussels could plunge Hungary into an energy crisis

Budapest Times

2 days ago

The Europe Project 2025 study, recently released by the Századvég Foundation, provides stark evidence of the growing energy crisis across the European Union.
According to the data, 22 percent of Europeans are unable to properly heat their homes, and 26 percent have missed utility payments at least once in the past year due to financial constraints. These figures have more than tripled since before the current crisis, showing that over 65 million additional people in the EU are now energy-poor.
Hungary, however, remains the exception. With just 9 percent of households struggling with heating and 12 percent behind on utility payments, Hungary reports the lowest energy poverty levels in the entire EU. These results are credited to the country's utility cost reduction policy, which uses strict regulatory pricing to protect families from market shocks and inflation.
But these protections are under threat. Brussels is currently pushing a new package of sanctions that would ban all imports of Russian energy into the European Union. If implemented, the plan would cause wholesale gas prices to double, rising from 35 to nearly 70 euros per MWh, and possibly more due to market speculation. As a result, Hungary's energy costs would rise by up to HUF 1.1 trillion annually, rendering its current price protection scheme financially unsustainable.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has warned of the consequences. 'Without our utility cost reduction program, Hungary would also be in trouble,' he stated in a public message. He pointed out that if the Brussels proposal were enacted, Hungarian families would see heating costs jump to 3.5 times their current level. This would raise annual household expenses from HUF 176,900 to HUF 625,000, an increase of nearly half a million forints per year. Monthly electricity bills would double from HUF 7,000 to 14,000, and gas bills would climb from HUF 16,000 to 54,000.
Hungary currently imports around 7.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas per year, which accounts for a significant portion of its national consumption. Replacing this supply on the open market would be significantly more expensive, and the necessary infrastructure for alternatives, such as LNG, remains limited.
The Századvég analysis also estimates that since 2022, high energy prices and reduced export opportunities have already cost Hungarian households an average of HUF 2.2 million. A complete ban on Russian gas would add another 448,000 forints in annual expenses, compounding the burden of other EU policy priorities such as military aid and accelerated accession for Ukraine.
As the Europe Project 2025 findings illustrate, Hungary's regulatory model has been crucial in shielding citizens from the worst effects of Europe's energy crisis. Prime Minister Orbán is now calling on voters to support continued resistance to EU energy sanctions through the upcoming Voks 2025 opinion poll, stressing that this is a 'life-or-death issue for every Hungarian family.'