Fitch flags concerns about Australia's AAA credit rating just weeks after S&P warns about excessive government spending

Sky News AU

12-05-2025

A second credit rating agency has raised concerns excessive government spending commitments made in the lead up to the Federal Election could damage Australia's stellar rating in the medium term.
Cash splashes to woo voters in the lead up the the federal election were the trigger for a warning from S&P Global in April that Australia's AAA credit rating could be in jeopardy.
A further warning has now come from Fitch's director of Asian Sovereign Ratings, Jeremy Zook, who said Australia's AAA rating in the near term was not at risk, but the nation's debt and looming deficits could pose problems in the medium term.
'When we think about the medium term, that's where a lot of our focus will be,' Mr Zook told Sky News' Business Now.
'If we see a sustained upward trend in Australia's government debt, which is not our current baseline, but if we do see a situation where fiscal deficits remain high and growth underperforms and that adds challenges in terms of fiscal consolidation, that is where the risks could arise.
'We think it's more of a medium-term challenge that the government will be looking to address.'
Mr Zook also warned a shock to unemployment levels in Australia could pose a challenge for the nation's revenue, as it faces a decade of deficits.
'The labour market remains relatively healthy, but if we do see a shock, that would add perhaps another challenge on the revenue front,' he said.
'Then, secondly, likely in the case of an economic shock, typically governments respond with more fiscal support for the economy. So, in a downside scenario, we could certainly see more challenge for the fiscal outlook.'
The federal budget has faced increasing strain, with national debt projected to top $1.2 trillion within two years and deficits expected to persist through the coming decade.
Treasury forecasts show deficits continuing into the foreseeable future—including $180 billion in deficits over five years.
S&P Global last week warned the big spending promises made by both parties could put Australia's AAA credit rating, which the nation has held since 2003, at risk.
'The 'AAA' rating on Australia may be at risk if election promises result in larger, structural deficits and debt and interest expenses rising more than we expect,' the agency said in a report.
'The budget is already regressing to moderate deficits as public spending hits post-war highs, global trade tensions intensify and growth slows.
'How the elected government funds its campaign pledges and rising spending will be crucial for maintaining the rating.'