Met Office says 'unprecedented changes' to weather could have severe impact on UK

Yahoo

12-03-2025

A groundbreaking new study reveals that changes to North Atlantic winds could have major impacts on UK weather by the end of the century. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could reach unprecedented magnitudes by the end of the century.
Today the weather agency has outlined what impacts the changes could have on the UK and beyond. Including key findings from the study.
A study led by a team of Met Office climate scientists, identifies climatological water vapour as a significant factor governing differences in long-term fluctuations in the NAO across climate model simulations. This is a key force behind UK weather patterns.
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The research shows that limitations in the way that current climate models represent water vapour in the atmosphere lead to uncertainty in predictions of the NAO's future behaviour. In the next few decades, experts believe the NAO could hit record-breaking extremes, bringing frequent and intense storms, flooding, and severe damage.
The findings indicate that under a scenario with very high concentrations of greenhouse gases by the end of the century, the NAO will increase to levels never before seen, posing severe risks of impacts from extreme weather such as flooding and storm damage.
Lead author of the study, Dr Doug Smith, shared the urgency of the findings: "These findings have major implications for understanding and preparing for extreme weather events.
"Our study suggests that taking model projections at face value could leave society unprepared for impending extremes. Mitigation efforts are crucial to prevent the severe impacts associated with an unprecedented increase in the NAO."
According to the Met Office, The North Atlantic Oscillation is a "large-scale atmospheric pressure see-saw" in the North Atlantic region. Changes in local weather patterns such as temperature, rainfall and wind strength/direction are strongly influenced by changing local pressure patterns.
Low pressure over the UK is accompanied by unsettled conditions with a tendency to form cloud, while high pressure is associated with more settled conditions and clearer skies.
The new research reveals that changes in water vapour, volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gases could drive the NAO to disastrous levels by 2100. The research reveals the NAO's significant response to external forcing's such as volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gases.
Also shown by the breakthrough is the importance of mitigation efforts to avoid severe impacts from an unprecedented increase in the NAO. The weather agency says: "these impacts could be mitigated through efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."
By identifying major sources of predictability, the Met Office has demonstrated that the winter NAO and key aspects of European and North American winter climate are in fact predictable months ahead. This represents a key breakthrough in climate prediction capability.
The Met Office forecasts can allow more time to prepare for increased or decreased likelihood of associated weather events, such as damaging winter storms, high near surface wind-speeds and extreme temperatures.