Iran fires fresh missiles amid ongoing Israeli air strikes
Israel launched an expanded assault on Iran on Sunday, targeting its energy industry and Defence Ministry headquarters, while Tehran unleashed a fresh barrage of deadly strikes. The simultaneous attacks represented the latest burst of violence since a surprise offensive by Israel two days earlier aimed at Tehran's rapidly advancing nuclear programme. New explosions boomed across Tehran as Iranian missiles entered Israel's skies in attacks which Israeli emergency officials said caused deaths around the country, including four in an apartment building in the Galilee region.
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Trump says Israel and Iran will come to deal ‘soon'
US President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Iran against retaliating on US targets in the Middle East while also predicting that Israel and Iran would 'soon' make a deal to end their escalating conflict. Mr Trump in an early morning social meeting posting said the United States 'had nothing to do with the attack on Iran' as Israel and Iran traded missile attacks for the third straight day. 'The U.S. had nothing to do with the attack on Iran, tonight. If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before. However, we can easily get a deal done between Iran and… — The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 15, 2025 Iran, however, has said that it would hold the US, which has provided Israel with much of its deep arsenal of weaponry, for its backing of Israel. Israel targeted Iran's Defence Ministry headquarters in Tehran and sites it alleged were associated with Iran's nuclear program, while Iranian missiles evaded Israeli air defences and slammed into buildings deep inside the country. Mr Trump said: 'If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the US armed forces will come down on you at levels never seen before.' Hours later, the US president took to social media again to predict that 'Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal'. The US president made the claim that he has built a track record for de-escalating conflicts, and that he would get Israel and Iran to cease hostilities 'just like I got India and Pakistan to' after the two countries' recent cross-border confrontation. Mr Trump also pointed to efforts by his administration during his first term to mediate disputes between Serbia and Kosovo and Egypt and Ethiopia. 'Likewise, we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran!' Mr Trump said. 'Many calls and meetings now taking place. I do a lot, and never get credit for anything, but that's OK, the PEOPLE understand. MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!' The growing conflict between Israel and Iran is testing Mr Trump, who ran on a promise to quickly end the brutal wars in Gaza and Ukraine and build a foreign policy that more broadly favours steering clear of foreign conflicts. Mr Trump has struggled to find an endgame to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. And after criticising President Joe Biden during last year's campaign for preventing Israel from carrying out strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Mr Trump found himself making the case to the Israelis to give diplomacy a chance. His administration's push on Tehran to give up its nuclear program came after the US and other world powers reached a long-term, comprehensive nuclear agreement in 2015 that limited Tehran's enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Mr Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday about the growing Israel-Iran conflict, and he is set to travel to Canada for Group of Seven leaders summit where the Mideast crisis will loom large over his talks with the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan and the European Union.
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Traders Dive Into Options Market as Geopolitical Risk Flares
(Bloomberg) -- Israel's air strikes on Iran, followed by the Islamic Republic's retaliation, rippled through markets Friday, prompting traders to pile into options for protection. Shuttered NY College Has Alumni Fighting Over Its Future NYC Renters Brace for Price Hikes After Broker-Fee Ban As Part of a $45 Billion Push, ICE Prepares for a Vast Expansion of Detention Space Do World's Fairs Still Matter? As American Architects Gather in Boston, Retrofits Are All the Rage Oil futures surged the most since 2020 and gold neared its all-time high in a rush to a safe haven. On the flip side, equities sold off on concern the conflict could widen, and that higher crude prices will boost inflation, keeping the Federal Reserve from lowering rates. The big questions are how long the conflict will last and how much it will spread. Besides the risk of supply disruptions in top oil producer Iran, an intensifying conflict could threaten some 11% of global seaborne trading volume that transits the Strait of Hormuz. 'The escalation between Israel and Iran, including strikes on nuclear and military targets, marks a turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics and its ripple effects are already being felt across global markets,' said Tamas Varga, an analyst at energy brokerage PVM. 'The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20 million barrels of oil pass daily — now sits on a geopolitical knife's edge.' Here are some of the ways traders are positioning for the uncertainty gripping markets: OIL As tensions ratcheted up in the days leading up to the attack, some analysts had speculated that a strike could push prices well over $100 a barrel. Traders snapped up bullish call options, a pattern that went into overdrive once Israeli planes started dropping bombs after markets opened Friday in Asia. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude's implied volatility soared as futures spiked as much as 14%. The panic buying of call options pushed the bullish premium to levels not seen since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the retaliatory strike drawing additional bidding. 'The way speculators play it is to buy whatever calls are on the screen as fast as possible with no regard for how much they are paying,' said Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. 'Not to mention some speculators are hedging against a short position.' The ramifications extend beyond flat price, with the shape of the forward curve changing drastically in just a few days, affecting millions of barrels of so-called WTI calendar spread options betting on the difference between delivery months. The unusual 'hockey-stick' shape that reflected fears of a glut of oil next year has given way to a backwardated market, where traders pay up for immediate delivery. Open interest in these options reached a record high Thursday, with positions spread across a wide range of levels. GOLD The rush into gold during the tariff turmoil of April is recurring to a smaller extent as geopolitics bubble up. The one-month call skew on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has risen to the highest since April 16 as the metal flirts once again with a record high. 'Any time there is geopolitical escalation investors are going for risk-off investments' such as gold, said Phil Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Investors may expand and move to silver too, according to Streible. STOCKS The latest flare-up in Middle East tensions had the expected impact on equity volatility markets, with the front-month Cboe Volatility Index future taking a strong bid. However, market players have become accustomed to volatility, and moves related to geopolitics tend to fade quickly when de-escalation rhetoric starts. And even with stocks down late on Friday, the drop of more than 1% in the S&P 500 Index will do little to stem the contraction in realized volatility, either on an intraday or closing basis. So long as markets continue to have a playbook for the latest headline risk crisis, owning volatility may continue to disappoint. 'Usually geopolitical events create a knee-jerk reaction that doesn't have much of a lasting impact, unless there's some very specific reason,' said Benn Eifert, managing partner and co-chief investment officer at QVR Advisors. The equity volatility reaction was 'not that big of a move and it will probably dissipate,' he said. US Dollar While the dollar hit a three-year low on Thursday, ahead of this week's Federal Reserve rate decision options positioning already showed signs that the decline was running out of steam. The attack did little to change that. One-month implied volatility on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has been trending lower since early April, and risk reversals Friday were the least bearish since April 9. The resurgence of geopolitical risk comes on top of domestic unrest in parts of the nation and uncertainty over the impact of US economic and trade policies on the economy. 'The events overnight in the Middle East are diverting attention away from immigration protests in the US, trade policy/wars and the focus on the Senate's OBBBA,' said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at Geneva-based MKS PAMP SA. --With assistance from Elise Harris, George Lei, Yvonne Yue Li, Christian Dass, Alex Longley and Bernard Goyder. American Mid: Hampton Inn's Good-Enough Formula for World Domination The Spying Scandal Rocking the World of HR Software New Grads Join Worst Entry-Level Job Market in Years As Companies Abandon Climate Pledges, Is There a Silver Lining? 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