Indianapolis homebuyers gain the upper hand

Axios

a day ago

Homebuyers hold an edge in Indianapolis and across the nation — so long as you can cover the bigger tab.
The big picture: There are nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market, Redfin estimates based on April figures.
Why it matters: That's the widest gap on record — and a big reversal from just a few years ago, when buyers were desperate to find a place to live, sending prices into the stratosphere, Axios' Emily Peck and Sami Sparber report.
By the numbers: There are 33.7% more sellers than buyers nationally. At no other point since Redfin began tracking in 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers by such a large percentage.
A year ago, sellers outnumbered buyers by 6.5%, and two years ago, buyers outnumbered sellers.
Zoom in: The Indy metro had nearly 1,500 more sellers than buyers, a 21% difference, signaling a home buyer's market.
Indianapolis also ranks fifth overall when tracking metros with the biggest year-over-year increases in pending home sales.
Context: Redfin counted sellers as the number of active listings in a given area and created a model to estimate the total buyers.
Where it stands: The one-two punch of still-soaring home prices and mortgage rates is making it hard for buyers, especially first-timers, to find a place they can afford despite the shift.
Add to that the extreme economic uncertainty of 2025. Tariff news, layoff fears and, for many federal workers, layoff realities, are tamping down buyer demand.
Yes, but: For home sellers "the mortgage rate lock-in effect is easing," per Redfin. "For most people, it's not realistic to stay put forever; job changes, return-to-office mandates and divorce force people to move."
Elevated mortgage rates are becoming the norm. "The idea of taking on a higher mortgage rate also isn't as shocking as it was when rates first skyrocketed in 2022."
Between the lines: Buying a home remains out of reach for most Americans, as the National Association of Realtors pointed out in a recent report.
The median home price sold in the U.S. in the first three months of this year was $417,000, per federal data — 33% more than during the same period in 2019, before the housing market went haywire, outpacing inflation and incomes.
Indy's median home sale price was $255,000 as of April per Redfin, a 4.9% increase when compared to the previous year.
The household income required to afford a median home in the Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson metro has also increased nearly 4% since last year.
What to watch: Historically, when sellers outnumber buyers, prices drop. And in some markets, listings have already started falling.
Redfin believes prices will dip 1% by the end of the year (not exactly a huge discount, to be sure).
The bottom line: "The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall," said Redfin senior economist Asad Khan in the report.