Analyst Malcolm Davis warns 'real risk' Labor's defence spending plan 'hollows out' ADF, rejects Anthony Albanese's ASPI criticism

Sky News AU

29-05-2025

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute's Malcolm Davis has warned there is a "real risk" the Albanese government's defence spending plans will reduce the capability of the Australian Defence Force, as he defended the think tank from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's criticism.
The Prime Minister on Thursday unloaded on ASPI, demanding the think tank 'have a look at themselves' after it warned Australia could be left with a 'brittle and hollowed defence force' if military funding was not urgently increased in a recent report.
Mr Albanese also took a swipe at the think tank's independence and credibility, stating ASPI's findings were 'predictable' and that the think tank "regularly produces these sort of reports'.
In its latest Cost of Defence report, ASPI found that 'investment had been put off for another generation' despite the government repeatedly insisting it had made a 'generational investment' following the 2023 Defence Strategic Review.
Malcolm Davis, a senior defence strategy and capability analyst at ASPI, railed against Mr Albanese's dismissive remarks, saying the suggestion the think tank had exaggerated its findings was both offensive and unsubstantiated.
'I think ASPI's perspective is that our job is to provide alternative defence advice to government and to provide contestability in the policy process,' he told Sky News Australia.
'That contestability is absolutely vital if policy is going to be effective.'
Mr Davis also backed in the validity and importance of the report, reiterating the outlook for defence would remain bleak unless the government altered course and substantially boosted the nation's strategic capabilities.
'With this cost of defence report, what we've highlighted is that the strategic environment that we're now facing, as stated in the government's own policy documents, is that we are in the most challenging time since the Second World War,' he said.
He also rebuked the Prime Minister's accusation the report was 'predictable', explaining the think tank had used the government's own analysis, policy papers and forward estimates to produce its findings.
'What we've determined in our own analysis, using the government's own data, is that the government is not spending sufficient amounts of money quickly enough in order to prepare for those risks," Mr Davis said.
'If you look at the government's planned defence spending, it goes to 2.33 per cent by 2033 and when you look at the strategic risks they're building up, we won't see most of that increase in defence spending until after 2027 or 2028 and into the 2030s.'
Mr Davis also denounced the government's lack of foresight, stating: 'There's a real risk that what that does is it hollows out the Australian Defence Force's capability to deal with threats here and now as opposed to preparing for risks that could occur in the in the 2030s'.
The report, written by former home affairs deputy secretary Marc Ablong, labelled the March budget as an 'opportunity lost' to bolster the ADF's capacities and said the government would be ill equipped to finance future defence commitments, including the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal.
ASPI Executive Director Justin Bassi also responded to Mr Albanese's outburst, calling on the government to 'learn lessons from other countries and regions' about underinvesting in defence.
"Our job... is not to seek praise. Obviously, no one likes criticism, but we want to enhance the debate," Ms Bassi told Sky News on Thursday.
"It doesn't matter whether people agree or disagree, the public really should be told what these threats are and why the policy settings are the way they are.
'ASPI was set up to deliver the hard truths to the government of the day, regardless of who's in power."