Champions League semi-final betting: Have Inter finally met their match in Barcelona?

New York Times

29-04-2025

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The Champions League semi-finals represent one of the most exciting parts of the footballing calendar. They typically offer frenetic, enthralling matchups between elite teams, with the two-legged element adding incredible drama – Barcelona vs Internazionale has all the ingredients to live up to that billing.
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Let's look at this titanic tussle through a betting lens, exploring the market for the best value wagers along the way.
A fortnight in football can feel like an awfully long time.
Rewind 14 days, and Inter had just beaten Bayern Munich 4-3 on aggregate in the quarter-finals, defending their box bravely in stoppage time to seal an emotional victory. As the final whistle sounded, roars bellowed from the terraces and the pitch alike. They had a Coppa Italia semi-final against arch-rivals AC Milan to look forward to, while they were also top of Serie A. Life was good.
Perhaps, in hindsight, that staunch stand against Bayern took too much out of the Nerazzurri, as since that night, fortunes have spiralled. From that point on, they've done nothing but lose. Bologna defeated them 1-0 thanks to a crushing 93rd-minute goal, Milan washed them away 3-0 in the cup, and Roma beat them 1-0 on Sunday.
This run – and the exhausted, bewildered looks on the players' faces throughout it – has no doubt shaped Inter's odds to win away to Barcelona, which look pretty close to long shot territory. Just a fortnight ago, they'd have been considered a much better match for La Blaugrana, and rightly so.
Barça are priced as pretty clear favourites and the form book suggests that's fair. It should be noted, though, that they'll be nursing their own fitness concerns, as they needed 120 minutes to beat Real Madrid 3-2 in a thrilling, heated Copa del Rey final on Saturday.
Inter may be tired, but that hasn't stopped them from creating plenty of chances in games.
Against Milan, in the Coppa, they fashioned and then missed three big chances, per Fotmob, while firing off double the amount of shots (16) than their opponents (eight). Then, against Roma, Denzel Dumfries and Nicolò Barella missed presentable chances in a game where the Nerazzurri totalled up 1.1 xG.
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At some point, for a team packed with this much quality – particularly in the forward areas – those chances will start going in again. Their strong variety in buildup play means they will be able to work the ball through Barcelona's pressing attempts and service Lautaro Martínez with opportunities – and in a big game, the Argentine usually delivers.
The same can be said for Barça, who will be missing Robert Lewandowski due to a hamstring injury, but showed against Madrid last weekend that that's no barrier to scoring goals. Ferran Torres is an able deputy, but the onus will fall on Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, who have netted 44 goals between them in all competitions this season.
The pair will stretch and pull Inter's back line, running in behind often and forcing the outside centre-backs of Simone Inzaghi's back three to defend awkward, difficult scenarios. Judging by the soft goals they have conceded during this recent collapse in form – set pieces, poorly cleared balls and attacking runs off the centre-backs have all been problems – it's tough to see the visitors holding out.
From a betting perspective, you can attack this in a number of ways. Barcelona to win and over 1.5 goals is priced at ⅘, which is a nice way of lengthening the odds of a home victory. Barça to win and both teams to score looks good value at 15/8, while the Betfair odds boost for Raphinha and Martínez to each land a shot on target at evens is very intriguing.
Inter's 1-0 loss to Roma wasn't all doom and gloom. They welcomed right-wing-back Dumfries back from injury after six weeks out, just in time for this Wednesday's semi-final clash.
The Dutchman is a hugely important player for Inzaghi, as his wing-back role isn't particularly normal: He surges into the box and crashes the back post constantly – in his head, he seems to think he's a striker – creating confusion, forcing loose balls and just generally wreaking havoc for the opponent.
He's typically at the centre of a lot of what Inter do that's dangerous, and that's particularly pertinent to this fixture, given Barcelona's first-choice left-back, Alejandro Baldé, will miss the game due to a hamstring injury. In his place, Gerard Martín will try his best to contain Dumfries – but will no doubt struggle with the assignment.
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The Inter man is 9/2 to score anytime or 7/2 to score or assist anytime. Given most of the big guns – Yamal, Raphinha, Martínez and Dani Olmo – are priced at around evens to score, Dumfries represents a nice outside value bet.
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(Photo of Lamine Yamal: Fran Santiago / Getty Images)