Popular support for jailed Istanbul mayor grows, polls show
Popular support for Ekrem Imamoglu, the Istanbul mayor whose arrest sparked Turkey's largest protests in a decade, has risen further above President Tayyip Erdogan since he was detained and jailed in March, opinion polls show.
Two surveys released in recent days suggest that Imamoglu's detention on March 19 has also reinforced views that he is Erdogan's main rival in any future presidential vote, even as he sits behind bars.
The mayor was jailed on March 23 pending a hearing on corruption charges that he denies — a move that the opposition and some European leaders called politicized and anti-democratic, and which accelerated nationwide rallies.
Erdogan's government rejects the criticism and says the judiciary is independent.
It is unclear when Imamoglu, a two-term mayor, will have his day in court and whether he will be released. Investigations continue after he and more than 100 other officials from Turkey's largest city were detained on various charges.
Surveys conducted in April by Metropoll and Konda, two top pollsters, show Imamoglu topping Erdogan by a comfortable margin in a hypothetical head-to-head election — though a vote is not due until 2028.
They also show that, since the mayor's arrest nearly two months ago, Turkish voters have grown more deeply polarized between Erdogan's AK Party (AKP) and Imamoglu's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).
"If the election were held today, and Imamoglu and Erdogan went to the second round vote, Imamoglu would lead by seven (percentage) points," said Ozer Sencar, head of research at Metropoll, which put the mayor's support at 46.7% and the president's at 39.3%.
Metropoll found that both the CHP and the AKP had received a roughly 5 percentage point boost in support since March, to 34% and 33% respectively, due largely to previously undecided voters picking sides.
Last elected in 2023, Erdogan cannot run again under the law unless an early election is called and is backed by three-fifths of parliament, for which he would need support beyond his ruling conservative coalition.
A CHP public petition calling for Imamoglu's freedom and early elections has surpassed 13 million signatures, according to Milliyet newspaper. The party did not respond when asked for the latest data.
Erdogan, who has run Turkey for 22 years, has said that corruption appears deeply entrenched in Imamoglu's former city administration and that the probe will be comprehensive, comments the CHP has slammed as another breach of judicial independence.
The Konda poll showed Imamoglu's support rising well past 40% in April, up from the previous month and sitting comfortably above Erdogan's in a hypothetical head-to-head vote, according to Aydin Erdem, the Istanbul firm's general manager.
Erdogan leads when poll respondents were asked to select from a broader list of nine potential candidates, Konda found.
But the number of undecided voters dropped sharply in April from March, with most backing one of the two men, suggesting the mayor's jailing reinforced a "growing polarization" in politics and the potential future "two horse-race," Erdem said.
The Konda and Metropoll results were largely unpublished beyond clients. Some past survey results have shown Imamoglu's support at similarly elevated levels, including ahead of his decisive municipal election victory last year.
A day before Imamoglu was detained, authorities revoked his university degree, which is required by law for any presidential run. On the day he was jailed, the CHP elected him its official presidential candidate in a previously-scheduled party vote.
The head of another pollster, Mehmet Ali Kulat of MAK, said the future success of Imamoglu and his CHP will hinge largely on whether other opposition parties, particularly the pro-Kurdish DEM Party that backed CHP in the past, lend their support.
DEM is in talks with the government to press for a peace deal with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, which has said it would dissolve after a call in February by its jailed leader to do so after a decades-long war with the Turkish state.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Japan Times
8 hours ago
- Japan Times
Ukraine denies postponing prisoner swaps as Russian strike on Kharkiv kills four
Ukraine denied Russian allegations on Saturday that it had indefinitely postponed prisoner swaps, accusing Moscow of "playing dirty games" after overnight Russian missile and bomb strikes on Kharkiv left three people dead and 22 injured. Later on Saturday, Russian aircraft carried out another bombing raid on Kharkiv, killing one civilian and injuring more than 40, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called "another brutal murder". Separately, Russian officials said a Ukrainian drone attack in the Moscow region wounded two people. At a second round of peace talks in Istanbul on Monday, the two sides agreed to swap more prisoners and return the bodies of 12,000 dead soldiers. However, Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky said on Saturday Kyiv had unexpectedly postponed the exchanges indefinitely. This was denied by Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, who said Moscow should stop "playing dirty games" and return to constructive work. "Today's statements by the Russian side do not correspond to reality or to previous agreements on either the exchange of prisoners or the repatriation of bodies," he said on the Telegram app. Overnight, Russian forces used high-precision long-range weapons and drones to attack military targets in Ukraine, hitting all of them, according to Russia's Defense Ministry. The northeastern city of Kharkiv, one of Ukraine's largest, is just a few dozen kilometers (miles) from the Russian border and has been under frequent Russian shelling during more than three years of war triggered by Russia's full-scale invasion. "Kharkiv is currently experiencing the most powerful attack since the start of the full-scale war," Mayor Ihor Terekhov said in a post on Telegram earlier on Saturday. Residential buildings, educational and infrastructure facilities were attacked, he said, and photos showed buildings burnt and reduced partially to rubble, as rescuers carried the wounded away for treatment. Kharkiv regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov said there could still be people buried under the rubble after one civilian industrial facility was hit by 40 drones and several bombs. In the Moscow region, two people were injured after a drone attack by Ukraine overnight and on Friday, Governor Andrei Vorobyov said on Telegram, with nine drones shot down. Russia's aviation watchdog said operations had resumed at the Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo and Zhukovsky airports in the Moscow region after being suspended temporarily for flight safety reasons. The Defense Ministry said that since midnight, air defense units had intercepted and destroyed 36 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory, including the Moscow region. Ukraine's air forces also shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet on Saturday morning, its military said without providing further details. Russian forces have not yet commented on the matter. Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces recently destroyed three Iskander missile systems and damaged Russian military helicopters. "There have also been new blows to Russian military logistics and airfields. This helps our defense — every complication for Russia is important for us," Zelenskyy said in his evening statement. A Ukrainian drone attack deep inside Russian territory last weekend likely damaged around 10% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet and hit some of the aircraft as they were being prepared for strikes on Ukraine, a senior German military official said in a YouTube podcast set for broadcast later on Saturday.
Japan Times
5 days ago
- Japan Times
Ukraine officials visit U.S., accuse Russia of stalling peace efforts
Senior Ukrainian officials visited Washington on Tuesday to seek U.S. support against Russia while accusing Moscow of dragging its feet at peace talks. Kyiv showed its ability to continue fighting by setting off an explosive device under a bridge that has become a symbol of the Kremlin's claims on Ukrainian territory. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a Russian artillery strike killed four people in the northern Ukrainian city of Sumy, an area where Russian forces have been making advances. Zelenskyy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, writing on Telegram after meeting U.S. Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg, accused Russia of "playing for time, manipulating the talks, trying to avoid U.S. sanctions and not wanting a ceasefire." Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha was more blunt, saying Russia had ignored a request to comment on Ukraine's proposals at Monday's second round of direct peace talks in Istanbul. "We demand Russia's reply. Each day of silence from them proves their wish to continue the war," Sybiha wrote on social media. Russia, he said, had "passed a set of old ultimatums that do not move the situation any closer to true peace." Yermak, in the United States with Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, also said he briefed U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff "on the real situation on the battlefield" and invited him to visit Ukraine "to witness the situation firsthand." "We need a ceasefire — we have fully supported the U.S. proposal on this since March. We are also ready for a leaders' meeting, which Russia continues to avoid," he said. A U.S. official said Yermak was scheduled to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday. Yermak said officials would also discuss a deal that gives the U.S. preferential access to new Ukrainian mineral projects and sets up an investment fund that could be used for reconstruction. Emergency service members work at the site where Russian drones damaged several private houses, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Sunday. | REUTERS Monday's talks in Istanbul made little headway toward ending Russia's war in Ukraine, apart from an exchange of proposals and an undertaking to conduct a new large-scale swap of prisoners of war. Moscow has responded to accusations of foot-dragging by saying Ukraine is not making a genuine effort to seek peace. At the talks, Russia told Ukraine it would agree to end the war only if Kyiv gives up big new chunks of territory and accepts limits on the size of its army. Ukraine rejects the Russian conditions as tantamount to surrender. "The (peace) settlement theme is extremely complex, it consists of a large number of nuances...," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, adding that "it would be wrong to expect any immediate solutions and breakthroughs here." It was not clear what would be the next step in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but Moscow said early on Wednesday that Istanbul will remain the venue for future talks. Kyiv launched in recent days what appeared to be one of its biggest waves of coordinated attacks of the conflict. Ukraine's SBU security service said it had hit a road and rail bridge that links Russia and Crimea below the water level with explosives. The extent of any damage was not clear and Russian officials later said vehicle traffic had resumed. The bridge is a flagship project for Russian President Vladimir Putin, built after he annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, a precursor to the latest conflict. Russian officials also announced that emergency crews had restored power to some 700,000 customers in Russian-controlled areas of southern Ukraine — in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions — after drones and shelling had knocked out substations and other infrastructure. Ukraine's attack on Russian-occupied territory in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions followed multiple Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that have at times left millions of Ukrainians without power. The latest attacks followed drone strikes over the weekend on Russian military airfields, some of which housed long-range nuclear-capable bombers. Ukraine's success in striking deep into Russia has prompted calls by some Russian military bloggers for a harsh response. Zelenskyy denounced the Russian military strike on Sumy, describing the incident as: "all one needs to know about the Russian wish to end this war." He also announced a military shakeup, including the appointment to a new post of a commander who resigned over a deadly Russian attack on a training area. Zelenskyy, speaking in his nightly video address after a meeting of top commanders, said the reshuffle sought to ensure that the military remained focused on combat more than three years after Russia's invasion of its smaller neighbor.
Japan Times
5 days ago
- Japan Times
Tough residency rules, Chinese competition squeeze Istanbul's 'suitcase trade'
Porters roam the narrow streets of Laleli in central Istanbul carrying parcels ready for shipment to customers all over the world. The maze of alleys that lead down to the Sea of Marmara have long been the center of the "suitcase trade" to sub-Saharan Africa, a route through which merchants carry goods back and forth in their baggage. But Laleli's informal shipping scene, once a bustling hub of cross-continental trade, is now facing growing pressure from rising costs and tougher residency rules imposed by Turkish authorities. African traders, who helped drive demand for Turkish goods through the kargo system — small-scale shipping services between Turkish wholesalers and buyers across Africa — say business has slumped, even as official export figures continue to rise. Facing pressure While some still make round trips, most trade now moves through shipping services. For agents like Fadil Bayero — a Cameroonian who runs a kargo business that ships clothing, cosmetics and home textiles from Turkey to clients across Africa — business is slow. Turkish products have a very good reputation in Africa, he said. "Before this room was filled to the ceiling. Today it is half-empty," the 39-year-old said. Like many Africans in the neighborhood, he claimed that shipments have dropped, even as Turkish exports to Africa have generally soared — from $11.5 billion in 2017 to $19.4 billion last year. Turkish textiles, once known for their affordability, have grown more expensive in recent years. Merchants say inflation — above 35% since late 2021 — has pushed African buyers toward cheaper suppliers in China and Egypt. But for Bayero, the explanation lies elsewhere. "It's not inflation that's the problem, it's the arrests. Many people have been deported," he said. 'Everything is empty' Since 2022, Turkey's migration policy has toughened, with the authorities blocking new residence permit applications in several districts of Istanbul, including Fatih, where Laleli is located. The goal is to limit the proportion of foreigners to 20% per neighborhood. "The stores, the streets, everything is empty now," said Franck, one of Bayero's colleagues. "Look out the window — the sellers sit all day drinking tea while waiting for customers." A few streets away, Shamsu Abdullahi examined his spreadsheets. In his dimly lit room, dozens of bundles are stacked on the white tiled floor, awaiting shipment. Since January, he and his two colleagues have shipped over 20 tons of goods by air freight and filled the equivalent of 15 maritime containers. The Nigerian has also made around 15 round trips to his homeland, bringing 80 kilograms of goods with him on each journey. "My residence permit expires in two months, and I think the authorities won't renew it," he said. He and his associates generate over €1 million a year in revenue. "It's money spent in Turkey that fuels the local economy," he said. 'Golden age' Historian Issouf Binate, a lecturer at Alassane Ouattara University in the Ivory Coast, said much of the trade is informal, making it hard to track. "It's difficult to provide figures on the volume of Turkey's exports to Africa because many businesses are informal," he said. Kargos are "transitional businesses," with improvised activity shared between friends or family members. Many in Laleli now believe that the golden age of the kargo and suitcase trading is over. "In one year we went from about three tons of shipments per week to 1.5," said a young Congolese who has lived in Istanbul for five years and asked not to be named. "Even if we still manage to find low-cost products, we cannot compete with China," he added. Arslan Arslan, a Turkish merchant who sells African dresses a few meters away, painted the same picture. "Before, I had customers from morning to evening ... but the authorities sent them back." Now Arslan searches for his African customers on social media. "I'm on Telegram, Instagram, Facebook. But here, everything has become expensive," he said. "I've lost 70% of my revenue in a year."
