Are 'High-Volatility' Bengals A Good Bet To Make AFC Title Game?
Star quarterback Joe Burrow played at an MVP level and the offense scored the fifth-most touchdowns in football, but a lousy defense and miserable record in one-score games kept Cincinnati out of the postseason at 9-8.
Trouble greeted the Bengals right away with a Week 1 home loss to the four-win New England Patriots, and they proceeded to lose seven of their first eight one-score games. They also lost four times when scoring 30 points.
That's almost an impossible feat.
So now what?
Well, Cincinnati is running it back on offense with Burrow, receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and running back Chase Brown.
Burrow and Chase are the most lethal QB to WR combo in the league and that's a good place to start. Last year, Burrow threw for 4,918 yards with 49 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while Chase exploded for 1,708 yards and 17 scores.
Assuming health, the offense will be fine.
If the Bengals miss the playoffs for the third straight season, the brunt of the responsibility will undoubtedly fall on the shoulders of the defense.
The true hope is that the new defensive coordinator, Al Golden, can solve some of the issues that betrayed the team last year. Golden was the architect of a Notre Dame defense that made it all the way to the National Championship Game of the College Football Playoff.
I'm a little more "glass half full" on Cincy's D because I like the interior guys on the defensive line, and I'm optimistic the team reaches a contract compromise with top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, at least for 2025.
If rookie defensive end Shemar Stewart plays, that's a bonus.
"They're such a high-volatility team," one professional bettor told me. "The quarterback and skill players give them a high ceiling. If they suffer a crucial injury or two on offense and the defense is worse, they can win five games.
"The big issue is the way they start [under head coach Zac Taylor]. How do you go 0-2 almost every year in the first two games? It's alarming.
"I've still got 'em favored in 11 games."
A quick fact check confirms Cincinnati's early-season woes.
Since Taylor took over in 2019, the Bengals are 1-11 in their first two games. The only win came back in 2021, a 27-24 overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings.
2019: 0-22020: 0-22021: 1-12022: 0-22023: 0-2
2024: 0-2
This year's schedule starts with Cleveland and Jacksonville.
At the end of the day, I believe Cincinnati has too much offensive ammo to ignore and odds are good the defense regresses in the right direction. It's also highly improbable the Bengals are that "unlucky" in one-score games.
I'm not crazy enough to pedestal them over the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs, but it's silly to think they can't make the playoffs and go on a run at the right time with Burrow à la 2021.
My favorite move re: Cincinnati is to take them Over 9.5 wins and place a small wager on them to lose on Championship Weekend. It's a 10-1 bet that'll put you in a tremendous position if there's chaos in the AFC bracket.
PICK: Bengals Over 9.5 wins (-140)
PICK: Bengals lose in AFC title game (+1000)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
recommended
Item 1 of 3 Get more from the National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Fox News
an hour ago
- Fox News
College Football Playoff Predictions: Which Team has the Clearest Path to the CFP?
July is a time for discussion and debate as we consider what's ahead in a 2025 college football season that will undoubtedly be filled with plenty of thrilling results and conclude with the second – and likely final – iteration of the 12-team College Football Playoff. Is this the year Steve Sarkisian and Texas finally get over the hump and reach the mountaintop? With a new quarterback under center and a pair of new coordinators in place, can Ohio State be the first program to repeat as national champions since Georgia did it in 2021 and 2022? These are some of the top debates currently going on as kickoff is now less than 50 days away. But as media pundits across the nation begin to roll out their preseason polls and reveal their national championship picks, it's important to take a look at the path each team must take in order to make this year's CFP. With that, we asked our college football writers the following question: Based on schedule, roster and playoff structure, which team is best positioned to make the CFP this year? FOX Sports' Laken Litman, RJ Young and Michael Cohen debate the topic below: Given the strength and depth of both the SEC and the Big Ten, two leagues whose members will pepper the preseason AP Poll when it is released later in the summer, the exercise of selecting a program with the clearest path to the College Football Playoff is largely about identifying the most talented team beyond those confines, a school immune to the rigors of such brutal scheduling. The 11 most difficult schedules in the country for 2025 will all be played by SEC schools, according to the strength-of-schedule metric compiled by ESPN, and 30 of the top 32 schedules overall belong to programs from either the SEC or the Big Ten. The only outliers are Syracuse at No. 17 and Florida State at No. 24, both of whom play in the ACC. A bit further down the list, at No. 40 overall, is presumptive ACC favorite Clemson, a team that is both the defending conference champion and a trendy national championship pick given the addition of highly touted defensive coordinator Tom Allen (formerly of Penn State) and the return of star quarterback Cade Klubnik, who threw for 3,639 yards with 36 touchdowns and only six interceptions while leading the Tigers to the College Football Playoff last fall. An argument can be made that Klubnik, now a senior, is among the best returning starters in the country alongside Garrett Nussmeier of LSU and Drew Allar of Penn State. The season-opening showdown between Klubnik and Nussmeier on Aug. 30 at Clemson could go a long way toward shaping early-season Heisman Trophy discussion and NFL mock draft debates. But aside from the undoubtedly tricky opener, Clemson has an extremely manageable schedule the rest of the way. The Tigers avoid perennial offseason winner Miami, which is chasing the first College Football Playoff appearance in school history, and host arguably their two toughest conference opponents at home in SMU on Oct. 19 and Florida State on Nov. 8. It's entirely possible that the stiffest tests of Clemson's season will come in bookend games against LSU in late August and the rivalry game with South Carolina — another trendy playoff pick behind emerging quarterback LaNorris Sellers — in late November. Anything less than another trip to the College Football Playoff would be a disappointment for head coach Dabo Swinney, considering how nicely the stars have aligned for his program in 2025. Combine a sweetheart schedule with a program that has won 10 or more games in the Pac-12 and Big Ten across the last five full seasons, and you're likely to get more of the same. The toughest team the Ducks have on their schedule is Penn State, a team it knows it can beat. The following week, the Ducks will host an Indiana team that has to cross two time zones. Yes, they've got a cross-country flight from Eugene to Piscataway, New Jersey, to play Rutgers, but you're not going to pick against the Ducks here. No one will. The Ducks ought to be a pretty safe bet to finish 11-1 and squarely in the conversation to host a first-round playoff game. Yes, Dante Moore has to show he's good enough to pilot the offense, and there will be new wideouts on the outside, with Evan Stewart sustaining a season-ending injury this offseason and Tez Johnson off to the NFL. But they got better in the secondary with the addition of Dillon Thieneman, who is the second-best safety in the sport behind Caleb Downs. Over the past two years, Thieneman has accounted for 210 tackles and six interceptions. If he didn't play at Purdue, you'd hear more people crow about it. This is also a defense that was adept at putting quarterbacks on the ground with 40 sacks last year. With Matayo Uiagalelei and Bear Alexander on the defensive line, they ought to come close to that number again. There aren't many programs that have been as consistently good without winning a national title as Oregon has since the inception of the CFP. Add to this, the Ducks have won as many Big Ten titles in the past decade as Penn State, and it's just their second year in the league. The Nittany Lions are a popular preseason pick to win the national championship this year. James Franklin's team is ranked No. 1 in several preseason polls and appears to have the roster and coaching staff to back it up. After making a CFP semifinal run last year, this team wants to go further in 2025. Quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, which will be massive for this offense, especially if Allar can take another step in his development as a passer. He's already projected to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and has some new weapons to help him out with several notable wide receiver transfers. Defensively, coordinator Jim Knowles has joined the program from reigning national champion Ohio State, which immediately gives Penn State more clout on that side of the ball. Not for nothing, Knowles knows the Buckeyes inside and out and can provide insight on the matchup when those Big Ten rivals play in Columbus on Nov. 1. Penn State is 1-9 against Ohio State over the past 10 years and a win on the road would be season-defining. The Nittany Lions have a winnable regular-season schedule, making their overall outlook positive. They host Oregon on Sept. 27, providing an early barometer of where this team actually is, and then have a pretty steady month of October before the showdown in Columbus. They'll host Indiana, which is coming off its best season in program history last year, but Penn State doesn't have to play Michigan or Illinois. Perhaps the selection committee will dock PSU in the end for not having a strong non-conference schedule – Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are the first three opponents, – but Franklin should have a strong enough team that realistically should win the conference for that not to matter in the long run. Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman. RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him at @RJ_Young. Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13. Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Bengals' past draft pick mistakes haunt them in another list
The Cincinnati Bengals have what appears to be an underwhelming guard battle set to go down this summer during training camp. As Bengals fans could have predicted, none of the team's guards come even close to making the annual top interior offensive linemen list from ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. Advertisement That list features droves of names the Bengals could have either drafted or otherwise acquired. And it also features a former Bengals first-round pick. RELATED: Cincinnati Bengals' 53-man roster projection following 2025 offseason Tucked outside of the top 10 and in the 'also getting votes' section is Kevin Zeitler, who will suit up for the Tennessee Titans in 2025. Zeitler was Cincinnati's first-round pick in 2012 and pretty infamously never had a serious shot at a long-term extension with the Bengals, a team that undervalues his spot and probably only selected him because they happened to have two first-round picks that year (they used the other on corner Dre Kirkpatrick). Advertisement While former draft picks and misses pepper the list, the Bengals will go into camp with Cody Ford, Cordell Volson, rookie Dylan Fairchild and free-agent add Lucas Patrick scrapping it out for starting roles. RELATED: Joe Burrow feelings on Trey Hendrickson contract standoff revealed This article originally appeared on Bengals Wire: Bengals' past draft pick mistakes haunt them in another list
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Bengals' biggest mistake of last 5 years haunts them again in new rankings
When the Cincinnati Bengals let safety Jessie Bates walk in free agency a few offseasons ago, it had the obvious potential to backfire in spectacular fashion. So far, it has. The Bengals attempted to move on with first-rounder Dax Hill in that role, who now plays cornerback. Geno Stone and Jordan Battle enter 2025 likely on their last chance to prove themselves under new coordinator Al Golden. Advertisement Bates, meanwhile, has two All-Pro nods to his name and just popped up as the fourth-best safety in the NFL from ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, who polled personnel from around the league: 'Lack of physicality was a criticism of Bates during his four-year stint in Cincinnati, but he is viewed as more of a complete player now with 234 tackles over the past two seasons. He isn't afraid to take aggressive angles and try to punch the ball out when tackling.' RELATED: Cincinnati Bengals' 53-man roster projection following 2025 offseason We wrote at the time that it didn't make sense for the Bengals to let Bates walk, especially because of how obviously important his range was in Lou Anarumo's scheme. Quarterback Joe Burrow, as recently as last winter, lambasted the organization for letting good players get away and Bates certainly qualifies. Advertisement What stings the most? Bates is still only 28 years old and already two years into that four-year contract the Bengals apparently didn't want to sign. It's shades of the Andrew Whitworth mistake, if not worse, as offseason lists will keep reminding the Bengals of their big mistake for the foreseeable future. RELATED: Joe Burrow feelings on Trey Hendrickson contract standoff revealed This article originally appeared on Bengals Wire: Bengals' biggest mistake of last 5 years haunts them again in new rankings
