MLB AL Comeback Player of the Year Predictions: Odds, expert picks, including Jacob deGrom and Byron Buxton
The American League Comeback Player of the Year market has been an intriguing race that is now showing heavy favoritism toward the Texas Rangers' Jacob deGrom at -260 odds per FanDuel Sportsbook and rightfully so.
deGrom is in the drivers seat with a 7-2 record 2.24 ERA, and 87 strikeouts to 18 walks over 15 starts. His only metrics that sit around league average, per baseball savant, are the ground ball rate and exit velocity, everything else is considered elite. He's been downright dominant, but will he hold up is the question?
deGrom baseball savant metrics as of June 25, 2025
After deGrom's next outing, the 37-year-old will have pitched his most games in a single season since 2019. Only four times in his career has he cracked the 30 start mark and 2019 was the last time that happened.
It's hard to trust that stat, but for most of the players on this list — their bodies betraying them once or twice is the reason why they are in this category as I'd like to say.
One player, that seems to be always injured, but is coming off his second-highest year of games played is Minnesota's Byron Buxton (+430).
That's who I think is the best bet in this field to take down deGrom, not the Tigers' duo of Spencer Torkelson (+900) or Javier Baez (+1000), and certainly not the Angels' Mike Trout (+9000) who I leaned heavily as the frontrunner for this award in the first month of this season.
Last year, Buxton dealt with right knee inflammation in May and right hip inflammation later in the year, yet he still played 102 games, which ranks only behind 140 played in 2017. So the start to this season has been a terrific sign for Buxton, much like deGrom.
Let's travel back in time some more. Buxton set a career-high 28 homers over 92 games in 2022 and appears ready to shatter that this year with 17 dingers through 62 games, which is one less homer through 40 fewer games from last season — in another words, the man is cooking the baseball this season.
Not to mention, he's batting .280, has 47 RBIs with a 2.8 WAR and having his best month of the season in June (.313 BA, 7 HR, 17 RBI). It's hard to ignore Buxton's power, but we also can't ignore the fact that he's been one of the most efficient baserunners with 13 stolen bags to 0 caught stealing, elite batting run value and one of the best hard-hit percentages in baseball.
While Buxton has a habit of chasing and striking out too much (73 Ks to 23 BB), that may be one of the only major negatives to his game so far. He has 46 runs scored and 69 is his career-high, plus he's only gone over 100 hits once in his career (currently at 66 hits in 62 games). He's taking his swings and not worrying about the misses, which speaks to his confidence this season.
Byron Buxton baseball savant hitting chart as of June 25, 2025
baseball savant
There is a lot to like about Buxton at the +430 price and while I see and hear why deGrom should and could win, I will ride with the value on Buxton as he is set to have a career-year as a hitter and could go toe-to-toe at the end of the season versus deGrom for this award.
Pick: Byron Buxton to win AL Comeback Player of the Year (1u)
Vaughn Dalzell's MLB Futures Card
2 units: Aaron Judge to lead MLB in home runs (+130)
2 units: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (-110)
1 unit: Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP (-110)
1 unit: Bobby Witt to win AL MVP (+450)
1 unit: Elly De La Cruz to win NL MVP (+2000)
1 unit: Garrett Crochet to win AL CY Young (+450)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+300)
1 unit: Byron Buxton to win AL Comeback Player of the Year (+430)
0.5 unit: Dodgers to win 117-plus games (+650)
0.5 unit: Paul Skenes to lead MLB in wins (+1400)
0.5 unit: Garrett Crochet to lead MLB in wins (+2200)
0.5 unit: Juan Soto to lead the MLB in homers (+2800)
0.5 unit: Yordan Alvarez to lead the MLB in homers (+2000)
0.5 unit: Roman Anthony to win. AL Rookie of the Year (+1200)
0.5 unit: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1100)
0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 by the All-Star break (+800)
0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 for the season (+5500)
0.25 unit: Oneil Cruz to lead MLB in stolen bases (+15000)
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