3 best Masters one-and-done picks (including Jon Rahm!)

USA Today

09-04-2025

3 best Masters one-and-done picks (including Jon Rahm!)
The start of the 2025 Masters is just one day away. The practice rounds are wrapping up, the Par 3 contest is coming up and, before we know it, the honorary starters will be firing down the fairway to kick off the first round.
Over at For The Win, we've been looking at a number of ways to bet on the action. We narrowed down a list of the nine definitive golfers who can win, 17 big names who absolutely cannot and another seven who won't even make the cut.
Now it's time to figure out the best picks for your one-and-done pool.
If you've been following our one-and-done columns all year, you know we've already burned some big names like Scottie Scheffler (The Players), Rory McIlroy (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and Jordan Spieth (Valspar). If you have access to the two former names and want to use them here, by all means, go for it. I cannot recommend using Spieth, but mostly because of the roller coaster of emotions he's likely to send you on.
The good news, however, is that some big names from LIV Golf are back in the field. Since they're no longer on the PGA Tour, this will be one of only four times they'll be available in your pool and there's no reason to shy away.
Here are our three best options for One-And-Done pools.
Jon Rahm
The pros: Rahm has three Top 10 finishes at Augusta in the last five years, including his 2023 victory. His 2.5 true strokes gained at Augusta are the third-most in the field (behind Scheffler and Spieth). There's also good reason to believe last year's flirtation with the cut line en route to a T45 finish was a bit of a aberration. Between moving to LIV, a the reigning champ responsibilities and significant rainfall, it's hard to read too much into Rahm's game.
The cons: He'll be one of the most popular picks this weekend and is already a top betting favorite to win (14-1). Rahm hasn't finished better than second in any LIV event this year — and that was in the season-opener at Riyadh. Few of the big names who defected to LIV have remained elite. We should learn a lot about Rahm's ability to stay dialed in on a tour that plays much less often than the PGA.
Collin Morikawa
It sure seems like it's just a matter of time before Morikawa slips on the green jacket.
He finished T3 in 2023, T10 in 2023 and fifth in 2022. The 28-year-old ranks fourth in True Strokes Gained (+2.30) at ANGC among all golfers who've played a minimum of 20 rounds — a full stroke better than DataGolf expected. Morikawa also arrives in great form with three Top 10 finishes on the season, though a Sunday collapse at the Arnold Palmer Invitational produced more questions than answers.
Like Rahm, Morikawa is 13-1 at BetMGM. Unlike Rahm, he's faced elite competition all season long.
Cameron Smith
You can go ahead and sub in Brooks Koepka here if you prefer, but he's always been a better fit at the U.S. Open, anyways. Smith, meanwhile has finished T2, T10, T3, T34 and T6 in his last five Masters. At DataGolf he's tracking +1.96 True Strokes gained — putting him ahead of Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama.
He's also 50-1 to win and likely won't be as popular a pick as Rahm.
Any LIV player will be a risk, but these feel like two of the more trustworthy options.