Has gold prices peaked? Pinetree's Ritesh Jain predicts prices to touch Rs 2 lakh in next 4-5 years, cites last 3 historic bull runs
Jain emphasized that the most significant gains in gold typically occur in the final 12–18 months of a cycle, marked by a sharp, parabolic rise.
Amid geopolitical tensions, gold prices have surged, prompting bullish forecasts. Ritesh Jain of Pinetree anticipates a continued bull run, drawing parallels to historical cycles where gold appreciated significantly. He projects potential prices of $7,000-$8,000, noting Indian households' substantial gold holdings and their recent outperformance compared to equity investments.
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Gold prices have surged in recent months, crossing Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams amid heightened geopolitical tensions. While some experts anticipate a price correction, Pinetree's Ritesh Jain holds a bullish view."There have been three major gold bull runs since Nixon removed the gold peg. One in 1975 — gold went from $35 to $225. Then the 1980 bull run — it reached $850. And the 2000–2011 bull run saw prices rise from about $1,200 to nearly $1,800. In each of these cycles, gold appreciated around 8x from the bottom," Jain said in a podcast with SOIC.'If we assume the last bottom was in 2014 at $1,500, then I'm also assuming an 8x rise again — because it's happened three times before. So why be surprised by the idea of gold hitting $3,500? It has happened in the past. Why can't it happen again?' he argued.Jain emphasized that the most significant gains in gold typically occur in the final 12–18 months of a cycle, marked by a sharp, parabolic rise. 'I believe there are still 4–5 more years left in this gold cycle,' he said, projecting a final surge that could take gold to $7,000–8,000.Note that at the current peak global gold price of $3,500, domestic gold prices in India recently touched nearly Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams. Going by the same calculation, if gold prices touch $8,000, domestic prices may breach the Rs 2 lakh level.Jain also highlighted gold's recent performance pointing data from the World Gold Council, which estimates that Indian households hold 25,000 tonnes of gold, currently valued at around $3 trillion — up from $2 trillion a year ago. 'That's a $1 trillion increase in just one year,' he noted.In comparison, India's total stock market capitalization stands at $5 trillion, of which households own only 21%, or about $1 trillion. 'So Indians earned a $1 trillion mark-to-market gain in gold last year — matching their entire equity holdings,' Jain said. 'Yet our focus remains on equities. In reality, women in Indian households — who traditionally invest in gold — have outperformed.'Check the full video here:
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