Two words were missing from Starmer's speech: terrorism works
But there are two vital words missing from the note: terrorism works. Peaceful negotiations, as tried in Oslo, Camp David and the Annapolis process, have flattered only to deceive. None of them have led to the UK shifting its position on recognition. It has taken, instead, the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. It has taken the impact of 1,200 dead Jews.
But it won't just be other terrorist groups which realise that if you want to get the British Government to shift policy, it's time to scale up the scope of your terror. In the context of 'a peace process towards a two-state solution', as the Cabinet note puts it, the Prime Minister has come up with the worst possible way to recognise a Palestinian state, which makes the ceasefire he claims is his priority less rather than more likely than it is now.
By announcing that if a ceasefire is agreed then the UK won't go ahead with recognition, Starmer has managed to find a new way to encourage Hamas not to agree to a ceasefire or to release the hostages. The onus in his conditions is placed entirely on Israel ('…the UK will recognise the state of Palestine in September…unless the Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, reaches a ceasefire, makes clear there will be no annexation in the West Bank, and commits to a long-term peace process that delivers a two-state solution'). Leave aside the moral outrage of placing the onus entirely on our supposed ally, the victim of an act of barbarity unprecedented in recent history, and focus instead on the practical meaning.
Unless the UK Government is calling for Israel simply to surrender to Hamas – which, even for this government, seems unlikely – then it takes both participants to agree to a ceasefire. Israel cannot agree to terms which do not include the release of the hostages, and Sir Keir's conditions do not include that as a pre-requisite, leaving Hamas free to continue holding them (the PM called on Hamas to release the hostages, as he has done many times before, but as a lawyer he will be well aware that that demand was not one of the conditions – nor could it be, since the conditions are placed entirely on Israel).
But even if Israel made clear it was ready to agree a deal – as it has already done repeatedly – that would still not be enough to satisfy Starmer's conditions if Hamas rejected a ceasefire, as it has already done repeatedly. Without a ceasefire, UK recognition goes ahead in September. The ball is in Hamas' hands.
In other words, Sir Keir Starmer's announcement makes a ceasefire less likely than it was before he spoke yesterday, because it incentivises Hamas to carry on fighting to secure UK recognition of a Palestinian state.
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