Analyzing the 2025 Kentucky Oaks field: Favorites, contenders and long shots
'Lilies for the Fillies' isn't quite as well-known as 'Run for the Roses,' but the blanket of lilies that drapes over the winner of the Kentucky Oaks is no less coveted by those with connections to the 14 fillies running Friday at Churchill Downs.
Last year's winner, Thorpedo Anna, went on to win Horse of the Year honors and end 2024 with earnings of $3.6 million. While we can't expect another super-filly to emerge from this year's Oaks, we can expect a competitive race and plenty of opportunities to cash tickets.
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Below is a full breakdown of the field for this year's Kentucky Oaks, in post position order.
Owner: C2 Racing Stable, Ken Reimer, Paul Braverman, Timothy Pinch, and Bradley Kent
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Edgard Zayas
Morning line odds: 30-1
This long shot has compiled a decent record, finishing out of the top three only once in six races, but that's the headline, not the story. She's won just once; she took four races to break her maiden; and she's never run in a race at nearly this level. She did finish second by a nose in her only attempt in a graded stakes race — her last out on April 5 — and the horse that beat her, Ballerina d'Oro, is in the Oaks field. Early On's speed figures place her far below what is likely to be competitive here.
Owner: Grantley Acres, Ryan Conner, Berkels0813, and CMNWLTH
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Morning line odds: 10-1
One of the many fillies here who likes to use her speed to gain an early advantage, though she did come from behind to win her first start. Trainer Beckman opted to skip the usual maiden race for her debut, running her in a minor stakes race at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. She won an Oaks prep race there in January — over a sloppy track — and was second to Quietside, a serious contender here, in her only loss. She intrigues at what's likely to be a moderate price, though her short résumé might be a concern.
Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Madaket Stables
Trainer: Graham Motion
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Morning line odds: 30-1
Graham Motion isn't the sort of trainer to run a horse just to take a shot, and he's known to spring an upset at a favorable price. That said, Fondly is up against it. She's run just twice, winning both, and she had no problem moving from seven furlongs to a mile and 1/16th, suggesting the increased distance may not be a problem. She's never run in a graded stakes race or against company like this, but she's shown she can stalk a pace if necessary. With one of the country's best jockeys in the saddle and one of its most esteemed trainers behind her, don't overlook her, especially underneath in vertical exotics.
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Owner: Legion Racing
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Morning line odds: 30-1
The second of two horses in the Oaks trained by Louisville's Whit Beckman, Drexel Hill looks to be significantly outmatched. Despite making seven starts, she's never run in a graded stakes race, nor has she raced beyond a mile. She is a closer in a field of speed horses, which could be an advantage, but unless something changes between now and Friday, she's just not fast enough.
Owner: Greenwell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Morning line odds: 30-1
This $550,000 yearling purchase looked like a promising filly last year as a 2-year-old. Trainer Amoss started her at two of the country's most prestigious, competitive meets at Saratoga and Keeneland, and she ended the year with a record of one win, one second and two thirds in four races. In two starts this year, she's not the same filly, winless so far in 2025 and really not competitive. She'll need a major turnaround to hit the board here.
Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning line odds: 10-1
She comes to the race off the narrowest of wins in the Grade 3 Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct in early April, her first win since breaking her maiden last September. She's been a factor, though, finishing second in the Grade 2 Demoiselle last December, and she finished third in her first start this year off a three-month layoff. She's a versatile runner, comfortable stalking or coming from off the pace, and her speed figures say she can run with her rivals here.
Owner: Tracy Farmer
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Morning line odds: 6-1
She's been running in top company since breaking her maiden at Saratoga last summer, and aside from a fifth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she's done pretty much nothing wrong. She's won two out of three this year, finishing second once, and she's got two graded stakes wins to her credit, including her last race, the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. She didn't run well in her lone start on an off track (which was also her first start), so maybe tread cautiously if the rains come.
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Owner: Gatsas Stables
Trainer: George Weaver
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Morning line odds: 12-1
Speedy and consistent, this filly has met every challenge thrown at her (except for that stinker of a first start back in August). She's won on turf. She's won on dirt. She relishes distance, and she racked up Oaks qualifying points, finishing fifth on the final leaderboard. She's another wanting to run on or close to the pace, and her speed figures are among the best in the field. She'll be on my tickets.
Owner: Baoma Corporation
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Morning line odds: 12-1
Bob Baffert is back at Churchill Downs. The Hall of Fame trainer was banned by the track for three years after his horse, Medina Spirit, failed a post-race drug test after winning the 2021 Kentucky Derby. No one will be surprised if he's back in the Louisville winner's circle that he knows so well. However, Baffert's not known for training closers, and this $850,000 filly is also not a closer — though she did come from off the pace in two early races. If she can rate in anticipation of a possible speed duel, she's poised to add to her already substantial trophy collection. She's won five of six starts, including four graded stakes.
Owner: James Ball, Magdalena Racing, and Kenneth Rhodes
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Morning line odds: 12-1
A year ago, trainer Ken McPeek brought a modestly bred $40,000 filly to this race, and eight months later, that horse, Thorpedo Anna, was voted Horse of the Year. This filly cost $60,000, though her breeding is a little more impressive, and while she's no Thorpedo Anna, she's run well against her rivals here, aside from a clunker in the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn Park in February. She's got a versatile running style, and while a win might be out of reach, she should be competitive if she's in top form. Given that multiple outlets have reported that she's dealing with a foot abscess, that's a big 'if,' so proceed cautiously.
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Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Morning line odds: 6-5
Undefeated in six starts, she's never been seriously challenged, winning by multiple lengths even as the competition got stiffer and the distances got longer. She won an allowance race by 17 lengths over a sloppy track, and her stalking/closing style is pretty well suited for a race with this much speed. 6-5 is tough to take in a race like this, so I'm happy to let her beat me, but this is one impressive filly.
Owner: Bell Racing
Trainer: Carlos David
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Morning line odds: 30-1
Three months ago, this filly was winless and running in maiden claimers, the lowest tier of racing. She claimed for $50,000, and after winning an optional claimer for new trainer Carlos David, she ran second in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, earning enough points to eke into the Oaks field. She'll be on or close to the pace, and her speed figures since being claimed suggest that she can run with these fillies, something unimaginable a few months ago.
Owner: Cypress Creek Equine and Madaket Stables
Trainer: Will Walden
Jockey: John Velazquez
Morning line odds: 30-1
This filly will indeed need to be blessed to have a shot. She's never run in a graded stakes race, and her speed figures are well below what she'll need to be competitive. An off track might move her up a bit, and her stalking/closing style could be useful, but there's nothing on paper that suggests that she'll factor.
Owner: Shortleaf Stable
Trainer: John Ortiz
Jockey: José Ortiz
Morning line odds: 8-1
Quietside is an ultra-competitive filly that's never finished worse than third in seven lifetime starts. A multiple stakes winner, she's run in top company since breaking her maiden at Saratoga by 6 1/4 lengths, earning enough Oaks qualifying points to top the final leaderboard at the end of the prep season. This far outside post does her no favors, but she's the one I'm taking. She's got a shot to beat Good Cheer.
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UPI
a day ago
- UPI
Coolmore, trainer Aiden O'Brien enjoyed Derby weekend at Epsom
Jantar Mantar cruises to victory in Sunday's Grade 1 Yasuda Kinen at Tokyo Racecourse, earning a "Win and You're In" spot in the Breeders' Cup Mile in November. Photo by and courtesy of Masakazu Takahashi June 9 (UPI) -- While American fans and punters were focused on a stakes-filled weekend at Saratoga, much of the rest of the world had eyes on Epsom Downs in England this past weekend, where the Irish Coolmore "lads" and trainer Aidan O'Brien carried all before them. Jantar Mantar grabbed the mantle of leading Japanese miler with a smooth victory in Sunday's Grade 1 Yasuda Kinen at Tokyo Racecourse, earning a spot in the Breeders' Cup Mile into the bargain. England The weekend couldn't have gone much better for the Coolmore squad at Epsom, as Aidan O'Brien notched his 11th Derby victory Saturday after posting a 1-2 finish in the Betfred Oaks and a win in the Group 1 Coronation Cup on Friday. Admittedly, the Derby triumph came with a horse most would have regarded antepost as no better than second-best of three O'Brien runners. But it only matters what goes on the board after the race, and that was the name Lambourn, who led virtually every step of the 1 1/2 miles and held on stubbornly for jockey Wayne Lordan to win by 3 3/4 lengths over Lazy Griff. Coolmore's main chance and the race favorite, Delacroix, had trouble early in the race and lost position. Jockey Ryan Moore said that essentially eliminated him from any chance and he got home ninth, passing some tired rivals. The outfit's third runner, The Lion In Winter, reported 14th, tiring late. Lambourn is a son of 2024 Derby winner Australia, who in turn was sired by 2001 Derby winner Galileo. O'Brien said Lambourne's performance was not unexpected in the Ballydoyle yard. "Wayne rides him in all his work and, after his last piece, he told me he's absolutely there," O'Brien said, according to Racing Post. "He knew exactly what this horse was and what he was capable of doing and the word in our place was that Wayne wanted to ride the filly [Oaks runner-up Whirl] and him." "He's a Derby winner by a Derby winner by a Derby winner. It's pretty extraordinary," Coolmore's M V Magnier said. "I don't want to sound like a broken record, but that's how we win a Derby -- by breeding precocious horses that are quick enough to do it." Lordan and Coolmore filly Whirl almost pulled off a similar feat a day earlier in the Oaks, leading until the final strides before yielding to the better-fancied stable companion Minnie Hauk by a mere neck. That pair handed a first career defeat to the favorite, Desert Flower, winner of the Betfred 1000 Guineas among her five previous victories. The Godolphin filly never looked comfortable while stretching out to the 1 1/2 miles. She flattened out when asked by William Buick and was third, 4 lengths adrift of Whirl, at the finish. Minnie Hauk, a Frankel filly, was making her fourth start and first since winning the Cheshire Oaks at Chester on May 7. "Ryan gave her a beautiful ride and she's a very exciting filly, Racing Post quoted O'Brien as saying. "She's obviously learning and she's going to improve with racing." While O'Brien might have been comfortable watching the final furlong of the Oaks with a 1-2 finish seemingly in bag, he would have been less so in the late stages of the Coronation Cup. In that, Moore got Jan Brueghel to the front right about at the 2-furlong marker only to see Mickael Barzalona urge the favorite, Calandagan, up on his outside. The two were on even terms with a furlong to go, with neither yielding until Jan Brueghel inched clear in the final strides to win by 1/2 length. The 4-year-old Galileo colt now has won four of five starts and finished second in the other. "He stays the trip very well, he's an uncomplicated horse," Moore said on ITV Racing. "Aidan had him, as he always does, in unbelievable shape. He showed a great attitude." Japan His connections have yet to figure out why Jantar Mantar finished 13th in last December's Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Mile -- by far his worst-ever performance. But they likely care less about what happened six months earlier after the 4-year-old cruised to a trouble-free win in Sunday's Grade 1 Yasuda Kinen at Tokyo Racecourse -- his third top-level victory. The Palace Malice colt, with Yuga Kawada up, took command while cresting the stretch hill and reported 1 1/2 lengths ahead of runner-up Gaia Force. The favorite, Soul Rush, last seen winning the Group 1 Dubai Turf over Romantic Warrior, settled for third. Jantar Mantar earned a "Win and You're In" spot in the Nov. 1 Breeders' Cup Mile at Del Mar. Soul Rush already owns a ticket to that heat, thanks to the Dubai win. After a clean break from the middle of the 18-horse field, Kawada held an eager Jantar Mantar in check just behind the early leaders, while sticking to a path well off the inside rail. Turning into the stretch, he let the colt run, and he responded to grab the lead and finished with enthusiasm. Kawada said the race, from his perspective, wasn't as easy as it as Jantar Mantar was keen after his six-month vacation after Hong Kong. "The colt broke well and was in a good position in third to start," Kawada said. "But then he got a little over-excited as horses came from behind, so I got a little worried. The colt just barely managed to contain himself as much as he could after that." The son of Palace Malice won the Grade 1 Asahi Hai Futurity at age 2 and the NHK Mile Cup last season. "I knew he would become a potential miler when he won the Asahi Hai as a 2-year-old and was certain he was the best miler in Japan when taking the NHK Mile Cup title," the jockey said. Today, he's justified his talent, so I'm happy for that."
New York Post
4 days ago
- New York Post
2025 Acorn Stakes: Can anybody upset Good Cheer on Friday at Saratoga?
Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards for more information. The 2025 Belmont Stakes may be about two horses, but Friday's headliner at Saratoga, the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes, is about one. No. 2 Good Cheer, the winner of the 2025 Kentucky Oaks, is 7-for-7 in her career, and all seven of her wins have come by at least two lengths. A win on Friday afternoon would put her in lofty company, and the oddsmakers believe that it's more likely than not that she comes through. Good Cheer was installed as a hefty 1-2 favorite on the morning line, putting her a couple of tiers above the rest of this seven-horse field. You can expect a ton of horizontal wagers on Friday to have Good Cheer singled to close their ticket, and you will see plenty of punters tie her to Journalism or Sovereignty in the Acorn/Belmont Stakes Double. That presents the classic dilemma for handicappers: Do you just join the masses and throw Good Cheer in all of your horizontal wagers and try to find value other ways, or do you try to take her on, knowing that you're going to get a good price on whoever you think has the best chance of handing Brad Cox's runner her first defeat? What's so interesting about Good Cheer and her dominance is that she's not putting up monster numbers. If you're someone who is using speed figures in your handicapping homework, you'll be left a little perplexed because this horse is doing nothing wrong, yet hasn't had that eye-popping number yet. That may sound like a knock, but it's really a testament to just how good this horse has been. She's shown up to each race and has been the best runner on the track seven times out of seven. To beat a horse like Good Cheer, you'll need two things to happen. One, she needs to be off her game, and two, you need the race to break your way. Saratoga will host the 2025 Belmont Stakes for the second year in a row. Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images But even for most horses in this field, that likely won't be enough. There are a couple of entrants that do have a chance to pull the upset, should things follow their preferred script. 2025 Acorn Stakes long shots No. 3 La Cara (10-1) La Cara set a lively pace in the Kentucky Oaks, but Mark Casse's contender faded down the stretch and ultimately had to settle for ninth, miles behind Good Cheer. Sounds ominous, right? Well, sure. But, there is some context needed for that result. Mother Nature was up to no good during Kentucky Derby Weekend, and that seemed to play a factor in how La Cara performed. This doesn't seem to be a horse who wants to run in muddy conditions. There is some precipitation in the forecast for Saratoga this weekend, but if there are clear skies, this horse has the speed figures you'd need to get out in front and stay there. Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps No. 5 Bless the Broken (10-1) In a lot of ways, what Bless the Broken does on Friday depends on La Cara. If the No. 3 horse sets a blistering pace, like she did at the Kentucky Oaks, Bless the Broken has every chance to do exactly what she did at Churchill Downs that day. She sat back and waited for the opportunity to kick it into high gear, passing plenty of tiring horses down the stretch. Given the pace setup in this field, there is a decent chance that we saw that race script again on Friday. La Cara, No. 4 Shred the Gnar, No. 6 Look Forward, and No. 1 Scottish Lassie all could vie for the front, turning the first four furlongs into a scrum, which would hopefully tucker them out. The bad news for Bless the Broken is that it will also play right into Good Cheer's hands, but maybe you get her on an off day, and this long shot can fire. At the very least, she's one to use in exotics on Friday. Why Trust New York Post Betting Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Yahoo
Appleby and Buick eye final step in rare sporting journey to complete Classics set
For both Charlie Appleby and William Buick, membership of one of Flat racing's most exclusive clubs will be an added incentive when Desert Flower, the 1,000 Guineas winner and favourite, canters to post before the Oaks at Epsom on Friday afternoon. Since the end of the second world war, only eight jockeys and 11 trainers have managed to get their names on the roll of honour for all five English Classics, and both lists are a roll call of racing legends. Vincent O'Brien, Sir Henry Cecil and Aidan O'Brien are among the trainers to have completed the full set, while an even shorter list of riders includes Lester Piggott, Steve Cauthen and Pat Eddery, and, since the turn of the century, only Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore. Advertisement Related: The Derby 2025: horse-by-horse guide to all the runners And while it is 15 years since Buick's first Classic victory, aboard Arctic Cosmos in the 2010 St Leger, Appleby could be about to complete the set in only eight. Masar, in the 2017 Derby, was the trainer's first Classic winner, Hurricane Lane took the St Leger in 2021 and the Guineas victories of Notable Speech, in 2024, and Desert Flower, at Newmarket last month, have now left him with only an Oaks winner to find. The final step of a rare sporting journey is often the most difficult to complete, however, and even Piggott, the greatest Classic jockey of them all, was forced to wait until 1970 to win the 1,000 Guineas, 16 years after his first Derby victory in 1954. Desert Flower's eight opponents on Friday will include three runners trained by the Aidan O'Brien stable that won recognised Oaks trials last time out, and Saeed bin Suroor's lightly raced Elwateen, a supplementary entry after a fine run into fourth behind Desert Flower in the 1,000 Guineas. Suroor's string has dwindled in recent seasons as Appleby has taken over as Godolphin's main trainer in Newmarket, but he is already a member of the 'All Five Classics' club. It would be quite the twist if Elwateen was the filly to leave Appleby on the doorstep. Advertisement Thirsk: 1.15 In A Hurry 1.50 Latynina 2.25 Banana 3.00 Canon's House 3.40 Jeany May 4.20 Lone Piper 4.55 Commander Atkinson 5.30 Arabian Cobra Epsom: 1.30 Saqqara Sands 2.05 Havana Hurricane 2.40 Calandagan 3.15 Have Secret 4.00 Minnie Hauk (nb) 4.35 Mirsky 5.10 Alzahir Bangor: 1.40 Herja 2.15 Baskerville 2.50 Finest View 3.30 Guillaume 4.10 Al Sayah 4.40 Newmill Getaway Bath 5.15 Russian Rumour 5.45 Top Biller 6.20 Secret Santa 6.55 Far Above Dream 7.30 Sioux Warrior 8.05 Aikhal 8.40 King Of Speed Goodwood: 5.25 Platinum Prince 5.59 Alerta Maxima 6.34 Kensington Agent 7.09 Whizz By 7.44 Serenity Dream 8.19 Big Bear Hug Advertisement Doncaster: 5.34 L'Eagle Aid 6.05 Regal Ulixes 6.40 Hard Endeavor 7.15 King Of Charm 7.50 Up The Pace (nap) 8.25 Mythical Phoenix 9.00 Justenzia The question mark around Desert Flower's chance is whether her stamina will extend to 12 furlongs and even her jockey will not know for certain until the business end of Friday's race. 'I do think she's very versatile,' Buick said on Thursday. 'Each time I've ridden her she has adapted to the race scenario. We could have kept her at a mile, it was put across the table as a plan, but we all felt she would get further. Whether that is a mile-and-a-quarter or a mile-and-a-half, we will see on Friday.' What does seem certain is that Desert Flower's rivals will make it a real test, and while she was a convincing winner of the Guineas her sire and dam were effective at short of 10 furlongs. Advertisement With that in mind, she is very hard to back at around 7-4 and Ryan Moore's decision to ride Minnie Hauk (4.00), the Cheshire Oaks winner, could be significant. On ratings she is third-best in O'Brien's trio of runners but she was a very comfortable winner on the Roodee with the promise of improvement over an extra furlong, and she is worth an interest at around 9-2 to give O'Brien an 11th Oaks success. Epsom 1.30 Saqqara Sands's stable remains in fine form and she has the most scope for progress in this field. Epsom 2.05 Eve Johnson Houghton won this race two years ago with Bobsleigh and Havana Hurricane arrives with a similar profile. Epsom 2.40 Calandagan's first Group One win is long overdue and Francis-Henri Graffard's gelding has several pounds in hand here. Advertisement Epsom 3.15 Have Secret has hit a rich vein of form this season and his mark is unchanged after another solid run last time. Epsom 4.35 David O'Meara's Mirsky can follow up from his win at Thirsk last time off a 2lb higher mark.
