Florida's "Alligator Alcatraz" aims to deter. Research says it won't

Axios

21-07-2025

Florida's detention camp in the Everglades, dubbed " Alligator Alcatraz," is built on a simple premise: deterrence, with state and federal officials urging migrants to self-deport rather than end up behind its walls.
Why it matters: Research suggests deterrence-based policies are ineffective at stopping migrants from coming to or remaining in the U.S.
Context: Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters that "nobody actually has to go to Alligator Alcatraz," adding that undocumented immigrants are given the chance to "self-deport."
Jeremy Redfern, communications director for Attorney General James Uthmeier, who announced the camp, went further: "It's a deterrent to stop them from coming in the first place."
The Florida GOP's fundraising email described the local wildlife as " bloodthirsty," and the White House shared an AI-generated image on X showing President Trump alongside alligators in ICE hats.
The big picture: Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the nonpartisan American Immigration Council told Axios that state-level crackdowns may prompt some undocumented immigrants to relocate, but not leave the country.
He told Axios that studies on the impact of state immigration policies have found "no evidence" of them leading to a large-scale exodus.
Florida has long prided itself on being inhospitable to migrants; it was the first state to sign onto the 287(g) program, which enables police to assist in immigration enforcement, in 2002. Yet it still has one of the largest undocumented populations in the U.S.
What they're saying: "The idea that you can build a detention facility to scare people into leaving the country is more fantasy than reality," Asad L. Asad, assistant professor of sociology at Stanford University, said.
"Once people have settled in the U.S., like the rest of us, they go about their routines," he added. "They work, raise families and manage uncertainty as best they can."
"What you will see more is the psychological fear, the psychological toll of that threat, especially in the short term."
The big picture: One study found that SB 1718 — which one lawmaker said was meant to " scare" undocumented immigrants — resulted in "a psychological and economic strain" on them as well as U.S. citizens.