
Why Crimea matters so much to Putin
Donald Trump, taking an 18th century approach as a might-is-righter, has said that the peninsula was captured without a fight by Russia from Ukraine and therefore should stay in Putin's fist.
Of all the 20 per cent of Ukraine 's territory taken after Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and launched its wider Anschluss in 2022, Crimea is the greatest Russian prize.
Whoever controls Sevastopol is likely to dominate the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Outside of Tartus, which Russia lost recently in Syria, it is – or was – Russia's only warm-weather port.
Moscow's claim to it has been undermined by the fact that it was ceded to Ukraine under the Soviet Union in 1954. The claim, now enshrined in an illegal annexation of Crimea into the Russian Federation, is further underpinned by waves of Russian settlement and forced removal of local people over at least two centuries that have left it with a Tartar heritage by a Russian ethnic and linguistic majority.
After 2014 it was common in Moscow's bars and restaurants for people to remark how happy they were for it's 'return' amid rose-tinted memories for sunny beach holidays in a former colony.
They've forgotten the Holodomor, when decisions from Moscow led to millions of Ukrainians starving. They've ignored the uprisings against efforts to eradicate every trace of Ukraine's language, its history, and its culture under Russian rule from the Tsars to Stalin and Putin. The mass deportations of Cossacks from their homeland to Siberia? Not even a nod.
Trump won't know any of this either. Despite his plea to Putin for an end to airstrikes against Ukraine in the wake of a deadly attack on Kyiv into Thursday – writing 'Vladimir, STOP!' on social media – all Trump cares about is this war being over, no matter the cost to Ukraine's history and future.
The latest chapter of Russian aggression was unleashed when 'little green men' – Russian Spetsnaz special forces commandos – used the Russian navy presence, on a leasehold, in Sevastopol, as a bridgehead to seize the peninsular in 2014.
It was launched following a well tested Putin programme which he had pioneered in Georgia. Russian speaking residents of Georgia, and Ukraine (including Crimea) were encouraged to complain about discrimination on the basis of their heritage. In Post Soviet nations many missed the certainty that being Russian brought. They resented finding themselves in junior new states, and in a minority.
In Crimea, their complaints served as an excuse of a rescue mission. Simultaneously Moscow-backed 'separatists' in Ukraine's east also rose and demanded autonomy from Kyiv. Putin sent in Cossacks from Rostov, Slav nationalists from Serbia, and reinforced the 'uprising' with regular Russian forces.
In Kramatorsk, in Donetsk region neighbours turned on each other the police split into rival loyal or pro-Putin factions. I picked my way through the provincial capitol on floors slippery with spent machine gun rounds not long after Crimea fell.
The town, 90 per cent Russian speaking, drove out Russian sympathisers and remains a battered and bloodied provisional capital of a province now illegally annexed by Putin. Donetsk, the original seat of government is now ruled by Moscow's proxies on the other side of the front line after intense and bloody fighting.
Putin's expansion of territory in 2014 could not have been achieved without the bridgehead of operations being established in Crimea. It was even more crucial to his full scale invasion of 2022.
He used the peninsula as a logistics hub, building a bridge to the Russian mainland to supply the forces her has crammed into the arid region.
Moscow, following conventional doctrine, destroyed most of Ukraine's navy there and used Sevastopol as its main base.
The Kremlin's admirals didn't reckon on Ukraine's innovation. It's navy now reduced to a handful of small craft it switched to missiles and drones. First sinking the pride of the Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva, before using drones to batter Russia's navy out of Ukrainian occupied areas and into its home ports.
If Moscow's allowed back into Sevastopol, as Trump would want, Russia's naval reconstruction and regeneration will continue apace and in now time assume total domination again.
Meanwhile Crimea remains in Russian hands and the main source of rockets and missiles fired against Ukraine, Russia's main base for air defences, and its command and control hub for the whole Ukrainian campaign.
That's why it matters to Putin. And now Trump.

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The Independent
9 minutes ago
- The Independent
Hijacked satellites and orbiting space weapons: In the 21st century, space is the new battlefield
As Russia held its Victory Day parade this year, hackers backing the Kremlin hijacked an orbiting satellite that provides television service to Ukraine. Instead of normal programing, Ukrainian viewers saw parade footage beamed in from Moscow: waves of tanks, soldiers and weaponry. The message was meant to intimidate, and it was also an illustration that 21st century war is waged not just on land, sea and air but also in cyberspace and the reaches of outer space. Disabling a satellite could deal a devastating blow without a single bullet, and it can be done by targeting the satellite's security software or disrupting its ability to send or receive signals from Earth. 'If you can impede a satellite's ability to communicate, you can cause a significant disruption,' said Tom Pace, CEO of NetRise, a cybersecurity firm focused on protecting supply chains. He served in the Marines before working on cyber issues at the Department of Energy. 'Think about GPS,' he said. 'Imagine if a population lost that, and the confusion it would cause.' Satellites are the short-term challenge More than 12,000 operating satellites now orbit the planet, playing a critical role not just in broadcast communications but also in military operations, navigation systems like GPS, intelligence gathering and economic supply chains. They are also key to early launch-detection efforts, which can warn of approaching missiles. That makes them a significant national security vulnerability, and a prime target for anyone looking to undermine an adversary's economy or military readiness — or to deliver a psychological blow like the hackers supporting Russia did when they hijacked television signals to Ukraine. Hackers typically look for the weakest link in the software or hardware that supports a satellite or controls its communications with Earth. The actual orbiting device may be secure, but if it's running on outdated software, it can be easily exploited. As Russian forces invaded Ukraine in 2022, someone targeted Viasat, the U.S.-based satellite company used by Ukraine's government and military. The hack, which Kyiv blamed on Moscow, used malware to infect tens of thousands of modems, creating an outage affecting wide swaths of Europe. National security officials say Russia is developing a nuclear, space-based weapon designed to take out virtually every satellite in low-Earth orbit at once. The weapon would combine a physical attack that would ripple outward, destroying more satellites, while the nuclear component is used to fry their electronics. U.S. officials declassified information about the weapon after Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, issued a public warning about the technology. Turner has pushed for the Department of Defense to provide a classified briefing to lawmakers on the weapon, which, if deployed, would violate an international treaty prohibiting weapons of mass destruction in space. Turner said such a weapon could render low-Earth orbit unusable for satellites for as long as a year. If it were used, the effects would be devastating: potentially leaving the U.S. and its allies vulnerable to economic upheaval and even a nuclear attack. Russia and China also would lose satellites, though they are believed to be less reliant on the same kinds of satellites as the U.S. Turner compared the weapon, which is not yet ready for deployment, to Sputnik, the Russian satellite that launched the space age in 1957. 'If this anti-satellite nuclear weapon would be put in space, it would be the end of the space age,' Turner said. 'It should never be permitted to go into outer space. This is the Cuban Missile Crisis in space.' Mining the moon and beyond Valuable minerals and other materials found on the moon and in asteroids could lead to future conflicts as nations look to exploit new technologies and energy sources. Acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy announced plans this month to send a small nuclear reactor to the moon, saying it's important that the U.S. do so before China or Russia. 'We're in a race to the moon, in a race with China to the moon,' Duffy said. 'To have a base on the moon, we need energy and some of the key locations on the moon. ... We want to get there first and claim that for America.' The moon is rich in a material known as helium 3, which scientists believe could be used in nuclear fusion to generate huge amounts of energy. While that technology is still decades away, control over the moon in the intervening years could determine which countries emerge as superpowers, according to Joseph Rooke, a London-based cybersecurity expert who has worked in the U.K. defense industry and is now director of risk insights at the firm Recorded Future. The end of the Cold War temporarily halted a lot of investments in space, but competition is likely to increase as the promise of mining the moon becomes a reality. 'This isn't sci-fi. It's quickly becoming a reality,' Rooke said. 'If you dominate Earth's energy needs, that's game over.' China and Russia have announced plans for their own nuclear plants on the moon in the coming years, while the U.S. is planning missions to the moon and Mars. Artificial intelligence is likely to speed up the competition, as is the demand for the energy that AI requires. Messages left with Russia's Embassy in Washington were not returned. Despite its steps into outer space, China opposes any extraterrestrial arms race, according to Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for China's Embassy in Washington. He said it is the U.S. that is threatening to militarize the final frontier. 'It has kept expanding military strength in space, created space military alliances, and attempted to turn space into a war zone,' Liu said. 'China urges the U.S. to stop spreading irresponsible rhetoric, stop expanding military build-up in space, and make due contribution to upholding the lasting peace and security in space.' What the US is doing about security in space Nations are scrambling to create their own rocket and space programs to exploit commercial prospects and ensure they aren't dependent on foreign satellites. It's an expensive and difficult proposition, as demonstrated last week when the first Australian-made rocket crashed after 14 seconds of flight. The U.S. Space Force was created in 2019 to protect American interests in space and to defend U.S. satellites from attacks from adversaries. The space service is far smaller than the more well-established services like the Army, Navy or Air Force, but it's growing, and the White House is expected to announce a location for its headquarters soon. Colorado and Alabama are both candidates. The U.S. military operates an unmanned space shuttle used to conduct classified military missions and research. The craft, known as the X-37B, recently returned to Earth after more than a year in orbit. The Space Force called access to space a vital national security interest. 'Space is a warfighting domain, and it is the Space Force's job to contest and control its environment to achieve national security objectives,' it said in the statement. American dominance in space has been largely unquestioned for decades following the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Soviet Union. But the new threats and competition posed by Russia and China show the need for an aggressive response, U.S. officials say. The hope, Turner said, is that the U.S. can take steps to ensure Russia and China can't get the upper hand, and the frightening potential of space weapons is not realized. 'You have to pay attention to these things so they don't happen,' Turner said.


Reuters
10 minutes ago
- Reuters
Oil prices steady as Russia supply concerns ease after Trump-Putin meet
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Reuters
10 minutes ago
- Reuters
EUROPE Geopolitics dominates, before Fed takes the stage
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. You know it's crazy times, when speculation Putin sent his body double to Alaska doesn't sound so outlandish. What does seem clear is that President Trump has shifted back to echoing Moscow's line, tweeting Kremlin talking points about Crimea and Zelenskiy. Putin's position seems to be that Ukraine should give up all the land Russia has taken, and much that it has failed to take in more than three years of fighting. This has been repeatedly ruled out by Zelenskiy and European leaders, and it's notable they will be by his side in Washington when he meets Trump later today. Markets have judged there is a diminished threat of further U.S. sanctions or tariffs on Russian oil exports, and oil prices are down modestly with Brent off 0.3%. Share markets are mostly firmer as Japan and Taiwan make more records, and Chinese blue chips scale a 10-month top. European stock futures are up 0.2% or so, as are Wall St futures. Valuations have been underpinned by a solid earnings season as Goldman notes S&P 500 EPS grew 11% on the year and 58% of companies raised their full-year guidance. This week's results will provide some colour on the health of consumer spending with Home Depot (HD.N), opens new tab, Target (TGT.N), opens new tab, Lowe's (LOW.N), opens new tab and Walmart (WMT.N), opens new tab all reporting. For monetary policy the main event will be the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole jamboree where Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework on Friday, though there doesn't seem to be a Q&A as yet. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are on panel discussions. Futures are about 85% priced for a Fed rate cut in September so anything less than dovish from Powell would be a setback for debt markets. While Fed expectations are anchoring short-term yields, the long end continues to fret about inflation, budget deficit and the politicisation of monetary policy, so steepening the yield curve. European bond yields have also been on the rise, perhaps in part on a realisation of how much governments are going to have to borrow to cover increased defence spending. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - EU trade figures for June, US NAHB housing survey