TJX Companies: The Quiet Retail 20-Bagger Stock
TJX Companies (
TJX
), the parent of TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings today, surpassing expectations with earnings per share of $0.92 and revenue of $13.1 billion. Comparable store sales increased by 3%, in line with the higher end of the company's projections and pretax margins of 10.3% exceeded company estimates. TJX also returned $1 billion to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends in the quarter.
TJX Companies continues to impress me—not just among retail stocks, but as one of the most consistent long-term stock performers in the entire market. While the discount retail sector includes standout names like Costco (
COST
), Ross Stores (
ROST
), and Burlington Stores (
BURL
), TJX has outpaced them all over the last two decades. The stock has compounded at an incredible 16.7% annually, more than 20xing investors money in that time.
Although shares are down slightly following today's earnings beat, TJX still benefits from near-term bullish catalysts, including a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating, which reflects positive earnings estimate revisions and continued analyst confidence.
What Drives TJX Steady Stock Returns?
It wasn't anything fancy that has driven TJX Companies' enduring returns—steady earnings growth, share buybacks, and moderate multiple expansion. Below we can see how TJX annual EPS have grown from just $0.06 in 1996 to $4.26 today.
Meanwhile, management has reduced shares outstanding by 60% since 1998, showing a commitment to returning cash to shareholders. And finally, TJX's median earnings multiple has risen from ~19x to 24.4x, depending on which timeframes you measure.
Today, TJX Companies is trading at a premium valuation of 30.4x, demonstrating investors willingness to pay up for a quality company.
TJX Earnings Forecasts Vs. COST, ROST and BURL
As I noted, the discount-retail industry has several very strong players in it, which shows how lucrative of a business model it can be, even with several competitors. Though TJX has a premium valuation, its earnings growth forecasts are not particularly high, currently at 9.1% annually over the next three to five years.
Costco, often praised for its cult-like customer loyalty and unique subscription model, carries a similarly modest growth forecast of 9.4%. However, investors are paying a hefty premium for that consistency as COST currently trades at an elevated 57.7x forward earnings.
Ross Stores sits in a more moderate position, with earnings growth estimates of 8% and a valuation of 24x forward earnings, offering a decent blend of value and stability.
Perhaps the most compelling growth/value trade-off comes from Burlington Stores, which boasts the highest projected earnings growth at 14.5% annually, while trading at 29.2x forward earnings.
Should Investors Buy Shares in TJX, COST, BURL and ROST?
For long-term investors, TJX Companies remains one of the most reliable names in retail. Its unmatched consistency, disciplined capital return strategy, and effective business model in off-price retail make it a quality core holding, even at a premium valuation.
However, for those seeking stronger near-term earnings growth or a better growth-to-valuation tradeoff, Burlington Stores may be the most compelling alternative, while Ross Stores is interesting as well. Costco remains an excellent business, but its valuations leave less room potential downside risks.
Bottom line: TJX is a textbook compounder, and its stock still earns consideration in any serious and well diversified portfolio.
Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor Stock
It's only 1/9,000th the size of NVIDIA which skyrocketed more than +800% since we recommended it. NVIDIA is still strong, but our new top chip stock has much more room to boom.
With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $803 billion by 2028.
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The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX): Free Stock Analysis Report
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST): Free Stock Analysis Report
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL): Free Stock Analysis Report
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