‘Crazy' race for Lions No 7 shirt is Andy Farrell's toughest call
Of course, there are ferocious contests everywhere in the squad, but the battle to wear the No 7 shirt is white-hot, in part because of the way Andy Farrell constructed his initial Lions squad which is less sixes and sevens and more sevens on top of more sevens.
Indeed you could argue there is not a single specialist blindside flanker, such as Jamie Ritchie or Ryan Baird, in the squad.
At 33, Tadhg Beirne has become much more comfortable in the second row where he can pick and choose his explosive moments. Ollie Chessum is starting in the No 6 shirt against the Brumbies on Wednesday, but despite being viewed as a hybrid option has only started two Tests there for England versus 17 in the second row.
With Maro Itoje and Joe McCarthy looking like a likely Test second-row partnership, then one of Beirne or Chessum will be needed at six to provide an alternative line-out jumper to the bulkier McCarthy.
At No 8, there is only one out-and-out specialist in Jack Conan, who also starts against the Brumbies and, barring injury or a truly wretched performance, will remain there for the first Test. Again the balance might have been different had Tom Willis, who delivered a storming performance for England against Argentina, been picked in the initial squad.
This effectively leaves five back-rowers in Curry, Josh van der Flier, Henry Pollock, Jac Morgan and Ben Earl in a five-way dance-off for one single back-row place.
Here Telegraph Sport takes a look at the the runners and riders to be the Lions' magnificent seven.
Tom Curry (England) – The Frontrunner
It may seem that Curry has been relatively quiet in his first two starts against Argentina and Queensland Reds, but that is not the impression that head coach Andy Farrell has of the Sale Sharks openside. 'He's a machine,' Farrell said. 'His work rate, his stuff off the ball is very impressive. The stuff that he does off the ball makes teams tick. He's so fit, so determined to have an impact on the game, especially as far as physicality is concerned. I think he started the tour really well.'
Curry, too, says he prides himself on his work-rate and his ability to get off the floor. He has definitely lacked many explosive moments so far this tour, but he does not seem perturbed by the fact he is not topping the charts or the highlights reel. 'No, that suits me,' Curry said. 'That's probably when I play my best. I don't do stats and numbers. It's just, if you are on the floor, how quickly you get up and if the ball is in the air, how quickly you run. Numbers don't mean much.'
Another trump card in Curry's favour is that he is the only one of the contenders with past Lions Test experience. However, it feels as though he needs a big performance to cement his place in the starting XV. The unseen graft is all very well, but with the Test series approaching Curry needs to come out of the shadows and display his destructiveness in defence.
Josh van der Flier (Ireland) – Mr Consistency
There are very few boxes that Van der Flier does not tick. Carry, link, and especially tackle. Against both the Western Force and the Waratahs, he was the game's top tackler with 21 and 17 respectively. For Ireland under Andy Farrell, he is one of the first names on the team-sheet and has considerable pedigree as the 2022 World Player of the Year. In terms of ball-handling skills, Van der Flier has as smooth a hands as any back in the squad – indeed he was a scrum half until he was 15 – and often acts as an auxiliary 9 from line-out ball. Such is his speed, that he can also finish in the wide channels like a winger.
If there is a downside to Van der Flier's game, it would be his lack of regular jackal turnovers and it was noticeable that the Lions were beasted in this area against the Waratahs. However, he is the glue to both Leinster and Ireland's game plans and he will never deliver you less than a 7/10 performance. When the final selection meeting is held, Farrell may well turn to the man he trusts the most.
Jac Morgan (Wales) – The Jackal
Morgan feels like he is singlehandedly flying the flag for all of Wales – let's pretend they are not touring Japan – and his man-of-the-match performance against the Queensland Reds puts him firmly in the selection conversation. Certainly, that display had Farrell purring with delight. 'He was everywhere. His offloading game was great, he was aggressive with his hitting,' Farrell said. 'If he plays like he did today, he can play wherever he wants.'
Morgan is the purest jackaller in the squad as he showcased with his ability over the ball against the Reds, where he also showed that he can be effective as a ball-carrier, which is not always easy when you are representing Wales. The big knock against Morgan was that he did this against the Reds rather than against high-class opposition in Argentina where he disappeared for long periods.
Occasionally he can appear slightly lightweight against bigger opposition. With both Van der Flier and Pollock on the bench against the Brumbies, it is likely that Morgan will have one last chance to state his case against the Australia and New Zealand invitational XV on Saturday.
Henry Pollock (England) – The Wildcard
There is so much science that goes behind selection from the review of statistics to weighting a player's body of experience, but sometimes you just have to say balls to that and embrace the fearlessness of youth. Aged 20 and with one full season of Premiership rugby and 30 minutes of Test rugby under his belt, Pollock has no real right to be in this squad let alone competing for a starting spot.
Yet, at the same time, Farrell must recognise the same impetuous qualities he displayed as a teenager for Wigan Warriors: he fears absolutely no one and no stage is too big for him. There are rough edges, but here is the X-factor that the Lions seem to be lacking, as his brilliant break and chip-and-chase against the Western Force illustrated. Starting Pollock would be a huge risk – but it is one that Farrell may be minded to take.
Ben Earl (England) – Mr Everything
Earl may well be a victim of his own versatility being able to appear across the back row and even at centre. His natural home has always felt at openside where he most frequently appears for Saracens. Earl's work-rate is off the charts. Against the Waratahs, he made 21 carries – a sixth of the Lions totals – with Mack Hansen the next highest with nine as well as making a game-high 114 metres. He was the game's top carrier against Argentina. And these are just the statistics that we can see - England support staff say his ability to get off the floor and conduct repeat efforts are at the top of the tree.
For England, it feels Earl has been asked to sacrifice much of his explosive power for repeated carries. Putting him alongside Conan could allow him to return to the heights we saw at the 2023 World Cup. But again his flexibility – especially with his ability to cover centre – will make him a very tempting bench option. Another big game on Saturday would be needed to change the equation.
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