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Indian Express
13 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Modi likely to be in US next month for UNGA meet, bilateral talks with Trump
Preparations are underway to schedule a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the US in the last week of September, The Indian Express has learnt. The ostensible reason is to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York, but a key objective will be to meet US President Donald Trump, iron out the issues on trade and arrive at a common ground on tariffs. This will also give an opportunity for the two leaders to announce a trade deal. However, for this to fructify, a lot of moving parts have to fall in place. There has to be movement on two fronts — the Russia-Ukraine war and the Indo-US trade deal. Negotiations are underway on both fronts, and the stakes for Delhi are high since it has been slapped with 50 per cent tariffs by the US — 25 per cent for its high tariffs and 25 per cent penalty for buying Russian oil. On the Russia-Ukraine war front, Delhi is closely following the meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 to discuss a resolution to the war in Ukraine. Modi has already spoken to Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the last few days. A resolution to the conflict is in India's interest, sources said, and this has been conveyed to both leaders. On the trade deal front, Indian and American negotiators had been close to sealing a deal, but the US President was not happy about the deal that was agreed between the interlocutors. So, the negotiators have to discuss the terms of the deal further, and they have to offer new terms, as red lines have been drawn. But the two sides are focused on the new goal for bilateral trade — 'Mission 500' — aiming to more than double total bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. This was decided during Modi's visit to the White House where he met Trump in February this year. They had also agreed that to realise this ambition, they would require new, fair-trade terms, and they had announced plans to negotiate the first tranche of a mutually beneficial, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall this year. And to conclude a wide-ranging BTA, the US and India had agreed to take an integrated approach to strengthen and deepen bilateral trade across the goods and services sector, and work towards increasing market access, reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, and deepening supply chain integration. But that has run into rough weather. And the officials and negotiators have to unlock the issues and negotiate a deal by September last week – the Prime Minister's visit to the US is expected to 'dot the i's and cross the t's', sources said. Now, to schedule the visit, as a first step, the Indian side has reached out to the UN headquarters for a speaking slot for the Prime Minister at the UN General Assembly. As of now, that has been scheduled for September 26 morning. Trump is slated to speak on September 23. At the UNGA, permanent missions to the UN have to indicate the level of representation from each country, and the speaking slot of 15-minutes is granted accordingly. If the PM's visit takes place, it will give an opportunity to speak at the UNGA and hold bilateral meetings with Trump and other world leaders. Zelenskyy also indicated Monday, after his phone call with Modi, that they 'agreed to plan a personal meeting in September during the UN General Assembly'. Sources said plans are underway since the entire process of accreditation and travel arrangements to the UN needs to be completed in August. Ties between India and the US have been impacted in recent months after Trump claimed to have brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan — a claim denied by Delhi. He followed it with diatribes against India on tariffs, and imposed 50 per cent tariffs. Sources said that since the two countries are strategic partners, they have to sort out the issues, and the PM's visit will be to smoothen the issues, so that a visit by the US President to India can take place in October for the summit of Quad leaders.
Indian Express
13 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Trump's 50% tariff: Beginning to get foothold in US market, Agra's leather belt takes a hit
US Tariffs Impact on Indians: In a sprawling shoe manufacturing unit in Agra, men in sweat-soaked vests move along the assembly lines in a choreography honed over the years — working in perfect rhythm, their hands following the machine's pace. As each shoe travels down the conveyor belt, it pauses briefly at each station dedicated to a specific task, such as removing wrinkles, cotton brushing, seat lasting, sole heat activation — a display of how a hundred small acts turn the raw leather into products destined for sale in international markets, including the US. However, US President Donald Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Indian goods — hiking duties on leather footwear from 5-8% to 25%, with a further 25% increase threatened by August 27 — has cast a shadow over the unit. India's leather exports across the world rose from $3,681 million in 2020-21 to $4,828 million in 2024-25 — a 31% rise. In the same period, exports to the US rose from $645 million to $1,045 million — a 62% jump. For manufacturers who had only recently begun gaining a foothold in the US market, the move has come as a significant setback. 'There will definitely be an impact. We only have three US-based customers, as most of Agra's exports have traditionally gone to Europe. But the US was a major market we were trying to enter. It's a huge consumer base, and any success there would have changed the scale of our business. This is going to slow that push down,' said Sushant Dhapodkar of Tej International Pvt Ltd. Agra is one of India's largest footwear manufacturing hubs, alongside Kolkata, Kanpur and Chennai. The city has around 10,000 micro-units apart from 150 small-, 30 medium-, and around 15 large-scale industries. Many use leather imported from Turkey, which takes 45–50 days to arrive via road, along with Indian leather sourced mainly from Kanpur and Chennai, and some from Jalandhar. While Europe remains the mainstay for Agra's leather shoe exporters, the US market, the largest consumer base in the world — accounting for 24% of global consumption despite just 4% of the population — has been developing fast. In the last quarter alone, nearly half of Agra's export business, worth about $594 million, went to the US. The growth was so sharp that many manufacturers had invested heavily in expanding production capacity. 'Those who were earlier working on six assembly lines are now running 14,' said Puran Dawar, chairman of the Development Council for Footwear and Leather Industry and president of the Agra Footwear Manufacturers and Exporters Chamber. 'We ourselves had set up a unit bigger than our existing one to tap into the US market. That's definitely out of the question now.' The tariff announcement has also come at the peak of production for autumn and winter collections — the busiest for Agra's export factories. Orders for leather boots, closed-toe shoes, and high-end formal wear are typically placed months in advance by American buyers. These are now in the final stage of production or ready for shipment — but buyers have been calling to put the stock on hold. According to manufacturers, some buyers are ready to look towards China for an alternative. Dawar said: 'This is the peak season for autumn and winter orders, and buyers are already telling us to hold shipments, even for goods ready to go. They want us to share the tariff loss. But the US is a price-sensitive market — nobody can afford to share even 12.5% of the burden, let alone 50%. Some buyers have already cancelled and are looking to China because their tariff is 30%, and to Vietnam, where it's just 20%. We can't compete at those rates.' Nazir Ahmed, owner of Park Exports, said the problem goes far beyond price competition. 'Now with the initial 25%, it's going to be a disaster unless Trump goes back to the original tariff,' he said. 'This won't just be a problem for India, but for the US as well… the higher the duty, the more expensive their product will be. In countries where lower tariffs are imposed, they will have the advantage, and we wouldn't be able to compete with them,' said Ahmed. He also highlighted the potential impact back home. 'If orders aren't placed, factories will be without work. And if factories are without work, workers will be without work. This industry is labour-intensive, so unemployment could run into millions if this continues. And I'm not just talking about manufacturing — textiles, tools, every industry linked to this process will take a hit,' he said. Manufacturers said the setback is particularly bitter because of the efforts they made to break into the US market. 'It's a setback to our plans to double or triple exports to the US,' Ahmed said. 'The government increases targets every year, and the American market has the potential to match our exports to Europe. Now all that planning is on hold.' Others, like Dawar, believe the hike is a 'pressure tactic' and will eventually be rolled back. 'The government is in touch with us to see how they can help. We were called to meet Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal last week to discuss relief. One idea discussed was that the government could bear a part of the hike, and the remaining could be between the manufacturer and the US importer.' The current uncertainty, meanwhile, is already triggering ripple effects beyond Agra. Naseem Khan, a Kanpur tannery owner whose leather is supplied to manufacturers linked to US exports, said clients have begun cancelling or freezing orders. 'Whatever the stage of production, they're saying stop immediately. Even though we don't directly export to the US, we are deeply connected; the leather we produce is approved by those who manufacture finished goods for the US,' Khan said. Meanwhile, exporters are brainstorming alternatives. Russia, once a major market for Agra, is being considered for revival. Others are looking inward to India's growing middle class — a customer base whose purchasing power has risen in recent years. Until now, much of the footwear sold domestically was made locally from scraps and leftovers of the export process. But with international orders in limbo, manufacturers are weighing whether to redirect their best designs and full-scale production to the home turf. Chairman, Council for Leather Export, Rajendra Kumar Jalan said, 'Currently, the dispatches have come to a standstill. All US buyers and Indian manufacturers exporting finished goods to the US have put their orders on pause because of the 50% tax. When the tax was raised to 25%, there was still some hope — we were still on par with competing nations like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, and, to some extent, China. But now, we are completely out of the picture. China, in fact, is gaining an advantage because the additional Russian oil tariffs do not apply to them, and they also enjoy a 90-day moratorium.' 'That being said, the US purchases from us are in large volumes, and for these bulk buyers, getting an alternative source of production for these huge orders, and that too in a short period, will be extremely difficult,' said Jalan 'At present, the reaction is one of panic. But we remain hopeful of finding alternative markets. There will be competition from other leather manufacturing nations, but our focus will be on countries where India has signed or is about to sign an FTA — countries such as Chile, Peru, and some European nations,' he said. — With inputs from Nirbhay Thakur
Economic Times
13 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Regulatory gray area makes investing in LVMH, BP tough For Indian retail
The world's largest sovereign fund, Norges Bank, credited European stocks for the gains this year in a rare episode in recent years. But Indian retail investors, who on paper can invest lakhs of USD overseas, are missing the European bus as an unreasoned regulatory cap holds back mutual funds from launching schemes that could benefit from what appears to be a continental renaissance. The MSCI Europe Index has soared 22% since January, easily
