Mapping out the future of redistricting

Politico

2 days ago

Good morning and happy Friday.
And away we go.
It appears Florida is joining the parade of red states considering a redraw of their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms. State House Speaker DANIEL PEREZ announced Thursday he was creating a new select committee to draw up a new map that he said could be tested in the courts well before the next decennial census. (For what it's worth, his announcement came a few hours after President DONALD TRUMP said he wants to do a new census now and not wait until 2030. More on that below.)
Here's a few things to keep in mind.
While Gov. RON DESANTIS has been talking openly in recent weeks about redrawing the state's congressional map, he's made no secret of his continuing and ongoing disdain of Perez. He has criticized him several times in recent public appearances.
So what to make of Perez making the first move on redistricting? One Florida GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, theorized that 'Danny would not have done that without the White House.' When asked if the White House had gotten involved, a spokesperson for Perez did not respond.
Here's the potential problem with White House involvement. While the Florida Supreme Court recently upheld the congressional map that gave Republicans a 20-8 margin, that ruling focused on one part of voter-approved redistricting standards that dealt with protections for minority voters.
Voters overwhelmingly approved those standards — called 'Fair Districts' — in 2010. The court ruling didn't disrupt the main part of 'Fair Districts' that prohibits state legislators from redrawing districts for partisan gain or to help incumbents.
In his memo about redistricting, Perez acknowledged that, telling House members that 'statements about redistricting that suggest an intent to favor or disfavor an incumbent or political party, which is currently prohibited by the Florida Constitution' would disqualify them from serving on the new committee.
Translation: Any signs of partisan influence could give a legal opening for Democrats to challenge whatever map is eventually produced. Perez, for his part, linked the decision to commence with mid-decade redistricting to the court ruling that dealt with minority protections.
Another note of intrigue: The ongoing silence from the Florida Senate. DeSantis keeps talking about his good relationship with Senate Republicans while trashing the House. Yet President BEN ALBRITTON has stayed mum about whether he's on board with mid-decade redistricting. It would be hard to envision a scenario where Albritton holds firm against the House and governor, but it's still worth watching.
And then there's the Democrats. Unlike the drama happening in Texas that led Democrats to flee that state, Florida Republicans enjoy a supermajority and can push through a new map with or without Democrats.
Democrats still reacted swiftly to Perez' move. Florida Democratic Party Chair NIKKI FRIED called it 'corruption, plain and simple.' Rep. MAXWELL FROST said Republicans are 'admitting they can't win without cheating.' A new map could theoretically target Democrats in south Florida and in the Tampa Bay region, places where Republicans have seen gains in recent years.
State Democrats have vowed they will fight against map changes, but that will likely require them to mount a lengthy and expensive court battle that may or may not be resolved prior to the 2026 elections. And any legal challenge based on 'Fair Districts' would wind up before the same Supreme Court that just upheld the current map.
— Gary Fineout
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... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...
'ALLIGATOR ALCATRAZ' EXPANSION GETS PAUSED — A federal judge Thursday ruled construction must temporarily stop at 'Alligator Alcatraz' as hearings challenging the Everglades-based detention center's environmental impact continue.
District Judge Kathleen Williams ordered the state to, at the very least, stop installing additional lighting, infrastructure, pavement, filling or fencing and to halt excavation for 14 days.
She called the request for the temporary restraining order from the plaintiffs, which represent environmental groups, 'pretty reasonable' to prevent further interruption to the ecosystem. The judge, an Obama-era appointee, said the plaintiffs had introduced evidence of 'ongoing environmental harms.'
— Kimberly Leonard
DeSantis response: 'Operations at Alligator Alcatraz are ongoing and deportations are continuing,' the governor wrote on X.
HARMFUL WATERS — 'For the second summer in a row, Florida wildlife officials said they are suspending the popular scallop harvest along all state waters in Pasco County over worries of unsafe toxins from harmful algal blooms,' reports Max Chesnes of the Tampa Bay Times. 'Water samplers have detected potentially harmful levels of an algal bloom called Pyrodinium bahamense and the toxins it produces.'
ACA CUTS COMING — 'With the enhanced advanced premium tax credits for so-called 'Obamacare' plans set to expire at the end of this year, the public relations firm Red Hills Consulting created 'Florida Conservatives for Affordable Health Care,'' reports Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix.
'The firm is launching a letter-writing campaign with the goal of encouraging Florida's congressional delegation to support extension of the enhanced premium tax credits that help millions of Florida residents purchase Obamacare health plans.'
PENINSULA AND BEYOND
BREAKING OVERNIGHT — 'The U.S. government announced on Thursday an unprecedented $50 million reward for information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan ruler Nicolás Maduro, accusing him of heading one of the world's most dangerous narco-trafficking networks,' reports Antonio Delgado of the Miami Herald.
'The reward, which doubles the previous offer, was revealed in a video posted on social media by U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, who said the Maduro regime has become a direct threat to U.S. national security. Bondi accused Maduro of using foreign terrorist and criminal organizations — including the Tren de Aragua gang, the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel, and the Venezuelan Cartel de los Soles, Cartel of the Suns — to flood the U.S. with cocaine.'
ANSWERS ON WORRELL — 'The mysterious grand jury that seemed poised earlier this year to disrupt State Attorney Monique Worrell's return to office examined whether she and her associates failed to preserve government documents and destroyed public records, according to a court filing,' reports Skyler Swisher of the Orlando Sentinel.
'The lawsuit, brought by a former chief investigator in the state attorney's office, Eric Edwards, reveals the first public details of an investigation that brought Worrell to a Polk County grand jury hearing room in January. To date, the grand jury probe has not resulted in any criminal charges, and Edwards says he learned through 'unofficial channels' that it ended in April.'
REHEARING REQUESTED — The City of Miami had asked the full bench of Florida's Third District Court of Appeal to rehear a case over its next elections, reports Tess Riski of the Miami Herald.
City commissioners voted 3-2 to delay local elections from November 2025 to November 2026, to bring them in line with federal and state elections and improve turnout. But the vote triggered a lawsuit and protest from mayoral candidates who wanted to run this year, given that it would give commissioners and Mayor FRANCIS SUAREZ another year in office and delay their own bids.
The plaintiffs said voters should be allowed to weigh in, and a three-judge panel agreed. Now, the city wants the full panel to weigh in, per a new filing.
BOOK REMOVALS — 'Broward school administrators have given schools a list of 55 books that must be removed, the latest move in a statewide effort to ban certain materials from school libraries,' reports Scott Travis of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
The list includes: 'Forever…' by Judy Blume; 'Wicked: The Life and Times of the Wicked Witch of the West' by Gregory Maguire; 'This Book Is Gay,' by Juno Dawson; and 'All Boys Aren't Blue' by George M. Johnson.
— 'Firefighters union threatens to sue Miami-Dade over proposed budget,' by WLRN's Joshua Ceballos.
— 'FAMU President Marva Johnson rolls out 100-day plan as she makes key appointments,' by Tarah Jean of the Tallahassee Democrat.
— 'No charges for driver who drove into crowd of protestors at local Tesla dealership,' by Hannah Phillips of the Palm Beach Post.
— 'Hundreds leave Palm Beach County School District teaching positions each year,' reports Wayne Washington of the Palm Beach Post.
...HURRICANE HOLE...
PEAK SEASON ASSESSMENT — 'The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday it is continuing to predict an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season,' reports Michaela Mulligan of the Tampa Bay Times. 'Meteorologists expect 13 to 18 named storms, of which five to nine could become hurricanes, and of those two to five could ramp up into a major hurricane, a Category 3 storm or higher.'
TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP
PAVING THE WAY TOWARD REDISTRICTING — Trump on Thursday said he was ordering a 'new and highly accurate CENSUS,' saying it will be based on the 'information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024.'
'People who are in our country illegally will NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS,' he wrote in the Truth Social post announcing the move.
The census is a constitutionally mandated count of every person in the United States every 10 years, which was last conducted in 2020. A full census has never been conducted mid-decade in this manner, nor has one ever excluded noncitizens from the count.
Censuses are immensely important in American governance; each count determines how many House seats every state gets through a process called apportionment, and the results of the census help direct billions of dollars in federal, state and local funding.
— POLITICO's Nicole Markus
ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN
— ''Fake nurse' arrested in Florida after seeing more than 4,000 patients,' per the BBC.
BIRTHDAYS: Former state Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez, Democratic candidate for Florida attorney general … Slater Bayliss with The Advocacy Partners … (Saturday) state Rep. Keith Truenow … Emmett Reed, CEO of Florida Health Care Association ... Mark Harper with the Daytona Beach News-Journal ... former state Rep. Sandy Murman … (Sunday) Joshua Karp of Liftoff Campaigns ... former state Sen. Jeremy Ring … Bay News 9's Phil Willette.