Tariffs could hike up your air conditioning bill for your home and car this summer

Independent

15-05-2025

Americans may find it costs them more to keep their homes cool this summer, and part of the blame for those rising costs could fall on President Donald Trump's economic policies.
HVAC — Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning — professionals are warning that Trump's trade war, a coolant shortage, and forecasts calling for increasingly hotter days are likely to raise the overall cost Americans spending on their air conditioning this year, according to NBC News.
According to HVAC professionals who spoke to the broadcaster, many have been eating the cost of doing business — labor, raw materials, and keeping up with regulations — as it's risen since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. Like any other industry, HVAC professionals rely on supply chains to get the things they need to do their jobs, and with so many supply lines under tariff thanks to Trump's trade war, the cost of doing business is likely going to be put onto the consumer.
Scott Shelton, the owner of Charlotte Comfort Systems, told NBC News he believed that his expenses had risen by 80 percent since the pandemic.
Another HVAC professional, Aydin Mehr, said a part that typically costs $1,000 will cost $1,300 or $1,400 come September.
He said that many HVAC shops were stockpiling their parts to try to keep their prices low, but noted that even by mid-May his trove is quickly depleting.
It's no secret that the planet is warming up thanks to human-driven climate change through the burning of fossil fuels. Hotter days means more demand for air conditioning, which in turn is demand for electricity.
The National Energy Assistance Directors Association said on Thursday that U.S. residential electricity costs are expected to average around $784 this year, pushing the average to the highest its been in 12 years.
Costs are likely to go up for those who need an air conditioner fixed or installed, and costs are likely to go up for the electricity needed to run a unit, but what about costs for those are in the market an air conditioner?
Prices are likely to go up.
Last year, the U.S. imported more than $15 billion worth of air conditioners — approximately five times as much as it exported, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Approximately half of the U.S.'s spending on air conditioning went to Mexico, and just under 20 percent went to China.
According to experts, less than half of the air conditioner components the U.S. imports from Mexico are covered under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. Products covered by the agreements are shielded from Trump's tariffs, meaning HVAC professionals will still take on a noticeable financial burden this year.
On Monday, the U.S. and China agreed to pause most of their tariffs for 90 days, but many suppliers buy their products on 90-day schedules, and some had stopped their orders — hoping to avoid Trump's tariffs — well before the U.S. and China reached a deal.
It's going to take some time before product finds its way back stateside.
'In the best-case scenario, we're going to have a Covid-style type of thing where they're going to be waiting months just to get their stuff," Mehr told NBC News.
On top of rising electricity costs and the trade war, HVAC workers are also dealing with an industry-wide shortage of R-454B, a more eco-friendly coolant that became required back in January. Trump signed a bipartisan measure into law in 2020 that led to the adoption of the regulation this year.
Mehr told NBC News that he was expecting a large manufacturer to ship out the pumps using the coolant in mid-April, but "it still hasn't shipped because they didn't import the parts from China to finish them."
Appliance maker Honeywell announced a 42 percent surcharge on the coolant, citing the "cumulative effect of increased costs and raw materials" made worse by an increase in demand.
Cooling isn't just a luxury anymore; in some parts of the U.S. having an efficient way to stay cool indoors is a necessity. Families without an efficient means of cooling their living space run the risk of heat stroke and other heat-related health problems.