Dubai property prices stand 30.5 percent above 2014 market peak in July amid record mortgage volumes

Economy ME

5 hours ago

Dubai's property market continued its upward momentum in July 2025, posting a more measured price increase of 0.99 percent following June's stronger gain of 1.71 percent. According to the
Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index
(DPI), average property prices now stand at AED1,625 per square foot, 30.5 percent above the previous market peak in September 2014.
A deeper look into the sub-categories of the index reveals that apartment price growth is softening, while the trajectory of villas and townhouses is moving with greater momentum.
Sales volumes to set a new all-time high in 2025
A total of 20,116 sales transactions were recorded in July, reflecting a 21.3 percent increase from the previous month. This marks yet another record-breaking month, continuing the 2025 trend of each month surpassing its previous all-time high.
'While the sharp month-on-month jump may appear dramatic at first glance, it is more likely a normalization following June's dip, which was influenced by reduced working days and many extending time off around the Eid break,' the report noted.
When viewed in the context of Q2's overall volume trend, the combined figures for June and July suggest a smoothing effect rather than a sudden spike in Dubai's property market activity. Residential transactions, encompassing apartments, townhouses, and villas, accounted for the majority of sales at 93.7 percent. The highest transacted commercial property types were office spaces, vacant land, and hotel apartments and retail spaces.
Year-to-date sales transaction volumes have surpassed just over 119,000 and are over 23 percent higher compared to the same period in 2024. At the current pace of transaction velocity, we are on track to see year-end sales volumes surpass 200,000 and set a new all-time high.
Mortgage transactions set a new record with 4,891 loans
Mortgage transaction volumes across Dubai's property market surged in July, setting a new record with a total of 4,891 loans—a 9.2 percent increase month-on-month. New purchase money mortgages accounted for 45.6 percent of activity, up 2.3 percent from June, with average loan amounts of AED1.8 million and a loan-to-value ratio of 73.7 percent, slightly above June's 73.5 percent.
Although the loan-to-value ratios edged up slightly in July, they remain lower than the historical average of 75–77 percent, likely reflecting the ongoing influence of Central Bank measures restricting fee and cost financing. These tighter conditions raise the upfront cash hurdle for buyers, but the fact that mortgage volumes hit a new record suggests strong confidence among buyers and a more resilient, well-capitalized demand base.
Meanwhile, loans for refinancing and equity release saw their market share increase by 7.5 percent to 38.3 percent. The remaining 16.1 percent was due to bulk mortgages—those taken by developers and larger investors with multiple units.
In July, Dubai's property market recorded 12,595 off-plan Oqood transactions, a marked increase of 28.3 percent from the previous month. In tandem with the increase in volume, the overall market share also rose to 62.6 percent, up 3.4 percent month-on-month. Meanwhile, title deed sale volumes also witnessed a monthly increase, climbing by 11.2 percent and now account for 37.4 percent of all sales transactions.
July marks 50 new launches with over 13,800 residential units
Dubai's new property pipeline showed no signs of slowing in July, as more than 50 launches brought over 13,800 residential units to market with a combined estimated gross sales value of AED38 billion. This brings the year-to-date tally to nearly 93,000 units and AED270 billion in potential sales, levels that would have once defined a full-year cycle but are now being reached in just seven months.
Apartments accounted for 95 percent of July's new supply, with villas and townhouses contributing 2.5 percent each. While the continued wave of new supply underscores developer momentum, it is also beginning to test the depth of demand. With many launches offering comparable concepts and pricing, standing out has become more difficult. The result is a market where buyer urgency is easing, and projects that once sold out in hours are now taking longer to move.
'Rather than a sign of weakening demand, this shift reflects a market that is becoming less hype-driven and more value-focused—one where buyers are taking time to evaluate, compare, and invest more deliberately. Of course, the possibility that seasonal effects are also playing a role shouldn't be ruled out, particularly during the traditionally quieter summer months,' the report added.
Read: Saudi Arabia to deliver over 40,000 housing units across 24 residential projects for citizens
Evolving dynamics to test market's adaptability
As the third quarter gets underway, Dubai's property market continues to operate at historically high levels of activity, but signs of strain are beginning to emerge beneath the surface. Price growth remains positive, and transaction volumes are on pace to break new records, yet the pace of new supply—particularly from the off-plan segment—raises questions about the market's capacity to absorb this wave in a sustainable manner.
With nearly 93,000 units launched year-to-date, buyer selectivity is rising, and early indicators of softening absorption are becoming more pronounced. Developers will need to shift focus from velocity to viability, with increased emphasis on product differentiation, delivery timelines and realistic pricing strategies.
Meanwhile, mortgage market dynamics remain a key factor to monitor. Although borrowing activity is strong, the persistence of lower loan-to-value ratios suggests that affordability pressures may start to shape demand more directly in the months ahead.
While the market remains fundamentally strong, sustaining this momentum will depend on aligning supply with end-user demand and placing greater focus on product differentiation and genuine value. The second half of the year will reveal whether the market can adapt to these evolving dynamics or begin to encounter meaningful friction.