1st aerial survey by scientists identifies cloudburst-induced debris flow as likely trigger of Dharali flood
"The debris may have accumulated from a past event, obstructing the stream's course, which then breached catastrophically," said Shantanu Sarkar, director of Uttarakhand Landslide Mitigation and Management Centre (ULMMC), who led the team. The scientists from ULMMC, Geological Survey of India, IIT Roorkee, Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, and the Central Building Research Institute (CBRI) surveyed Dharali and Harsil between Aug 13 and 16.
They interviewed locals, ground search teams, and village elders before returning to Dehradun on Saturday.
"A key part of the exercise was attempting to reach the glacier site but thick cloud cover prevented us from reaching the glaciated portion directly", said Sarkar. However, the team was the first to conduct an aerial survey of the affected area after the tragedy. He added, "Our chopper ascended to around 8km above Dharali.
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We observed the Kheer Gad stream and the debris." Sarkar said that once cloud-free satellite images of the glaciated area are available, the team will finalise its findings in a report which will be submitted to the govt.
Debi Prasanna Kanungo, chief scientist at CBRI, added, "Combined rainfall and snowmelt likely triggered the cloudburst-induced glaciofluvial debris flow due to elevated daytime temperatures.
Data from Wadia Institute shows around 100mm of rainfall occurred on Aug 4 and 5 in the area. This substantial precipitation, combined with snowmelt runoff, appears to have played a critical role in mobilising the debris.
"
Based on the aerial survey, the team has ruled out both Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) and Landslide Lake Outburst Flood (LLOF) as causes of the flash flood. "We did not see any fresh active landslide marks for LLOF along the Kheer Gad or depressions that could indicate a glacial lake for GLOF," Kanungo said.
The scientists also dismissed the possibility of an ice-rock avalanche. "In the 2021 Rishiganga disaster in Chamoli, debris travelled nearly 25km and carried huge ice and rock pieces. Here, the debris moved just 8km and contained no ice or large rocks. We specifically asked locals and rescue teams about sightings of ice and rock, but they denied it, which rules out the avalanche theory," the team noted.
The flash flood not only flattened Dharali and altered the course of the Bhagirathi, but also left behind a trail of destruction that rescue teams are still battling as they repair broken roads, drain temporary lakes, and continue relief operations nearly two weeks after the incident.
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