Congress's Budget Referee Confronts Swarm of GOP Critics
In an interview, Phill Swagel defended the CBO's forecasting record as Republicans blast the fiscal scorekeeping agency's assessment of their tax-and-spending megabill.
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Politico
26 minutes ago
- Politico
New Jersey's long, expensive primary turns to counting votes
Polls have closed in the crowded and hotly contested primary for New Jersey governor. Six Democrats and five Republicans are running to replace the term-limited Democrat Phil Murphy in an election marked by personal vitriol and dominated on both sides by President Donald Trump. No matter who wins, it's a historic election. It is the most expensive, with more than $120 million spent over two years of campaigning, and the first in generations without a ballot design that gave party bosses extraordinary influence. It sets up a general election that will be watched nationally as a test of Trump's appeal in a traditionally blue state that he lost by a closer-than-expected six points last year. Only one other state, Virginia, has a gubernatorial election this year, so both states' outcomes in November will also be read for clues into next year's midterms. In New Jersey, the primary results will be analyzed to see how traditional Democratic machines perform without the 'county line' — a structure used for decades by party leaders that gave the candidates they endorsed favorable placement on the primary ballot. That follows a judge's 2024 decision to toss the line in the Democratic primary and a new law mandating office block ballots for both parties, similar to those used in every other state. Among the Democrats, Rep. Mikie Sherrill has long been the front-runner, but not the prohibitive one. With the backing of many but not all of New Jersey's county leaders, the four-term former Navy helicopter pilot and former federal prosecutor has found herself her opponents' top target for allying with power brokers in Democratic-rich counties in North and Central Jersey. But Sherrill projected herself as the top general election candidate early, using the last few weeks of the primary to reinforce Republican front-runner Jack Ciattarelli's association with Trump and touting legislation she introduced in April to require Elon Musk and top DOGE staff to take drug tests. 'MAGA's coming for New Jersey, with Trump-endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli. We've gotta stop them,' says a recent Sherrill ad. Sherrill has faced the most caustic criticism from rival Steven Fulop, the longtime mayor of Jersey City who eschewed the political bosses he once courted and has run to Sherrill's left with aggressive and detailed policy plans, including support for the type of suburban residential development that has proven a liability for Democrats in general elections. He's called her 'Tammy 2.0,' referring to First Lady Tammy Murphy's dropped bid for U.S. Senator last year that stirred resentment in the party base, and criticized her for refusing to 'take any position that is risky.' Ras Baraka, the mayor of Newark, is also running to Sherrill's left and has appealed to Democrats by aggressively challenging the Trump administration, resulting in his widely-condemned trespassing arrest at a Newark ICE facility last month. The arrest gave him massive publicity, but does not appear to have propelled him to the front of the field, while his fundraising lags his rivals. Former Senate President Steve Sweeney and Rep. Josh Gottheimer have run more moderate campaigns, with Sweeney voting to repeal New Jersey's policy that limits local law enforcement's cooperation with immigration authorities and Gottheimer pledging to cut property taxes by 15 percent. Meanwhile, Sean Spiller, the former mayor of Montclair and president of the 200,000-member New Jersey Education Association, has run a campaign with progressive messaging fueled almost exclusively by a super PAC funded with $40 million from his union, making it by far the most expensive of any candidate's effort. The size of the field and their extensive resources has led to the most expensive and least predictable statewide primary in decades. And that's largely because of progressives' successful challenge of the county line last year. While this is the second Democratic primary not to feature it (and the first Republican one), the 2024 U.S. Senate primary was over before a judge barred the line since Murphy dropped out and effectively handed the party nomination to Andy Kim While Sherrrill has had a lead in the few public polls released in the race and every leaked internal campaign poll, it's rarely been in the double digits. With six candidates, it's possible a Democratic candidate could win with just 20 percent of the vote. The Republican primary is nothing like the Democratic one. The two main candidates, Bill Spadea and Ciattarelli — who was the Republican nominee in 2021 and came within 3 points of ousting Phil Murphy — spent most of it competing as much for an endorsement of Trump as they did appealing to the state's 1.6 million registered Republicans. Spadea, who has long aired anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and cast doubt on the results of the 2020 election, appeared to be in the running for Trump's endorsement. Ciattarelli had in 2015 called Trump a 'charlatan' and, while he gradually warmed to him, largely sought to avoid association with him in his 2021 campaign. But Ciattarelli recently expressed unbridled support for Trump, while his allies dug through thousands of hours of Spadea's programs to find Trump criticism. They also highlighted fundraising and poll results that showed Ciattarelli way ahead. It culminated with an ebullient Ciattarelli getting a photo op sit down with Trump at his golf club in Bedminster. Not to be outdone, Spadea showed up the next day and met with Trump in the golf club's hallway, but did not post a photo of the encounter. It paid off for Ciattarelli with a Trump endorsement, writing on Truth Social that 'Jack, who after getting to know and understand MAGA, has gone ALL IN, and is now 100% (PLUS!)' Spadea sought to reassure disappointed supporters by saying Trump 'endorsed a poll, not a plan' in Ciattarelli. But most political observers counted that as the end of the Republican primary, and subsequent events showed it. Spadea has struggled in fundraising, earning only about half of the matching funds he was eligible for from the state. New Jersey's off-year general election in November — along with Virginia — will be read as a bellwether for the 2026 midterms. While Democrats have an 800,000 registered voter advantage over Republicans, New Jersey voters have often been willing to elect Republicans as governor. And the GOP in recent years has gained more than 100,000 voters, while Trump's relatively close loss in the state in 2024 has given Republicans hope of taking the governorship. The election saw well over $120 million poured into it from the candidates themselves, state-financed matching funds that most of them took, and, most of all, super PACs. It's only set to intensify in November, when the field will be less crowded but the stakes higher.
The Hill
30 minutes ago
- The Hill
Trump-backed Jack Ciattarelli wins GOP primary for New Jersey governor
Former state Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli has won the Republican nomination for governor of New Jersey a second time, giving him a chance to get over the finish line after falling short four years ago, according to Decision Desk HQ. Ciattarelli defeated a few other challengers for the GOP nod, most notably former talk radio host Bill Spadea and state Sen. Jon Bramnick. His renomination wasn't ever in serious doubt as he led by significant margins consistently throughout the race, had a significant fundraising advantage and earned an endorsement from President Trump. During the primary, Ciattarelli faced some attacks particularly from Spadea for not being supportive enough of Trump and his MAGA agenda. Ciattarelli was at one time a critic of Trump, calling him unfit to serve as president. But he's since gradually moved closer to Trump and was seeking his endorsement ahead of Trump's announcement last month. Ciattarelli also pointed to past comments Spadea made criticizing Trump and wanting the GOP to move on from him as their candidate for president in 2024. Ciattarelli surprised many observers in 2021 when he came within almost 3 points of upsetting Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in his reelection bid. But he may face more of an uphill battle with Trump in the White House. Since the 1970s, New Jersey has elected a governor from the opposite party of the president every gubernatorial election except for four years ago. But the state has also gone back and forth in electing Democratic and Republican governors despite being a lean-Democratic state on the federal level, potentially giving Republicans an opportunity after eight years of Murphy.
Politico
30 minutes ago
- Politico
Most GOP lawmakers plan to skip Trump's big parade
President Donald Trump is celebrating the Army's 250th anniversary — and his own 79th birthday — with a massive, multimillion-dollar military parade Saturday in Washington. But one group of otherwise devoted Trump allies largely won't be there to celebrate: congressional Republicans. Among the 50 GOP lawmakers surveyed by POLITICO, only six said they planned to stay in Washington this weekend for the festivities. Those begging off include members of the Republican leadership in both chambers. The chairs of the House and Senate Armed Services committees, the top congressional officials overseeing the military, are skipping Trump's pageantry, which includes a flyover of vintage and contemporary warplanes. Instead, they'll attend a different air show — the annual defense industry confab in Paris. Among those attending will be some of Trump's most devoted House supporters, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. 'Yes, of course,' she said Tuesday. 'I'm going to be there for the 250th anniversary of the Army.' MAGA stalwarts Byron Donalds of Florida, Elise Stefanik of New York and Cory Mills of Florida also said they would attend, along with Reps. Rich McCormick of Georgia, John McGuire of Virginia and Lisa McClain of Michigan. But many more said they would beg off — choosing, as most members do, to stay away from Washington for the weekend. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Majority Whip John Barrasso are skipping, as is House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. Sen. Tommy Tuberville said he'll be back in Alabama campaigning for governor. Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin said it's his anniversary, and 'I choose to be married.' Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee said the event conflicts with his daughter's 18th birthday. West Virginia Sen. Jim Justice said he's a no but added that doesn't 'mean that I'm against it.' 'It's great celebrating President Trump's birthday, and I think it's great celebrating the military,' Justice told reporters Tuesday. 'We haven't done that in a long time.' Among those skipping are several military veterans and members of the two Armed Services panels. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a former Air Force reservist, said Tuesday he's not planning to attend, though he left open the possibility. Other senators who have served in the military and are planning to sit out the celebration include Sens. Todd Young of Indiana, Rick Scott of Florida and Tim Sheehy of Montana. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Brian Mast of Florida, another veteran, said Tuesday he's unsure whether he'll attend. Other prominent House Republicans are also skipping. House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris said he won't attend, though his home is less than a two-hour drive from D.C. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole said he's heading home. 'It's celebrating the birthday of the Army and I think it's a good thing to do,' Cole said. 'I just didn't get to go home last week and I'd like to get to go this week.' Asked if he was attending, Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker of Mississippi said, 'I'll be at the air show' — an apparent reference to next week's Paris Air Show, where defense contractors peddle their latest wares. House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers of Alabama confirmed that's where he'll be. Speaker Mike Johnson's office did not respond to a request for comment on his plans. The White House is shrugging off the absences. An official granted anonymity to describe plans for the event said senior military leaders and at least 15 Cabinet members, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins, are expected to attend. 'President Trump looks forward to a historic crowd at the Army Birthday Parade, where he will be joined by top military leaders, administration officials, congressional representatives, and most importantly, thousands of patriotic Americans to celebrate 250 years of honor, courage, and sacrifice by our United States military,' White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement. Many Hill Republicans have shrugged off the parade's hefty price tag. But a few have raised concerns. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said in an Army budget hearing last week that the costs could range from $25 million to $40 million. He said he could not provide an exact estimate because the Army could not predict how much damage its tanks would do to the District's streets, potentially necessitating costly repairs. 'I don't want to take anything away from celebrating the anniversary of our armed forces if it helps with recruiting and patriotism,' Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington said in a brief interview. 'But it depends on what that number is. If it's $100 million, it causes one to pause.' Military leaders have defended the parade as a vital recruiting tool. But Democrats have railed against the administration for prioritizing pageantry over service members and their families. The parade, set to run along the north side of the National Mall, begins near the Pentagon — in the Virginia district represented by Democratic Rep. Don Beyer, who sees the event as a waste of money. 'Like his deployment of the military in L.A., it's a shocking waste of money at a time they are closing Social Security offices 'to save money,'' Beyer said in a statement. 'They're shutting down our regional transportation including the airport for this, and people I hear from in the military don't even want it, the whole thing is just to boost Trump's fragile ego.' Trump warned Tuesday that protesters who show up to the Saturday parade will be met with 'very big force.' Demonstrations to counter the parade are planned for other cities. Beyer said Trump's threat only added to 'the trappings of authoritarianism' the parade already carried. Roughly 6,600 troops are expected in Washington. The Army plans to roll 25 M1 Abrams main battle tanks and 150 vehicles down Constitution Avenue. A World War II-vintage B-25 bomber and P-1 fighter will join the parade, along with Vietnam-era Huey helicopters. Soldiers marching in the parade will wear uniforms from every conflict the U.S. has fought, from the Revolutionary War to the present day. Jordain Carney, Ben Jacobs and Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.
